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March
30th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Sunday Challenge Conversation, '03 Week 1
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please click here for discussion of our selected rosters for these contests.


Colorado: 6 games: 3 Road at Houston; 3 Home vs. Arizona.
Houston: 6 games: 3 Home vs. Colorado; 3 Road at St. Louis.

7 Home games
San Diego: 3 vs. San Francisco; 4 vs. Los Angeles.
Tampa Bay: 4 vs. Boston; 3 vs. New York Yankees.

7 Road games
Boston: 4 at Tampa Bay; 3 at Baltimore.
Los Angeles: 3 at Arizona; 4 at San Diego.

Teams with six home games: Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City, New York Metss, Oakland, and St. Louis.

All other teams play six games with at least three on the road.


Pitchers of interest with two starts(whom we'd start if we owned them):
John Lackey: Sun:TEX(I.Valdes); Sun:@OAK(T.Hudson)
Randy Johnson: Mon:LA(H.Nomo); Sat:@COL(D.Oliver)
Curt Schilling: Tue:LA(Od.Perez); Sun:@COL(J.Jennings)
Greg Maddux: Mon:MON(T.Armas); Sat:FLO(J.Beckett)
Rodrigo Lopez: Mon:CLE(C.C.Sabathia); Sun:BOS(T.Wakefield)
Pedro Martinez: Mon:@TB(J.Kennedy); Sat:@BAL(Jas.Johnson)
Tim Wakefield: Tue:@TB(V.Zambrano); Sun:@BAL(Rod.Lopez)
Mark Buehrle: Mon:@KC(Run.Hernandez); Sat:DET(M.Maroth)
Kerry Wood: Mon:@NYM(T.Glavine); Sun:@CIN(P.Wilson)
Jimmy Haynes: Mon:PIT(K.Benson); Sat:CHC(C.Zambrano)
C.C. Sabathia: Mon:@BAL(Rod.Lopez); Sun:@KC(Run.Hernandez)
Mike Maroth: Mon:MIN(B.Radke); Sat:@CHW(M.Buehrle)
Josh Beckett: Mon:PHI(K.Millwood); Sat:@ATL(G.Maddux)
Roy Oswalt: Tue:COL(J.Jennings); Sun:@ATL(J.Simontacchi)
Runelvys Hernandez: Mon:CHW(Run.Hernandez); Sun:CLE(C.C.Sabathia)
Hideo Nomo: Mon:@ARI(Ran.Johnson); Sat:@SD(B.Lawrence)
Odalis Perez: Tue:@ARI(C.Schilling); Sun:@SD(A.Eaton)
Ben Sheets: Mon:@STL(M.Morris); Sat:SF(R.Jensen)
Brad Radke: Mon:@DET(M.Maroth); Sun:TOR(C.Lidle)
Tony Armas: Mon:@ATL(G.Maddux); Sun:@NYM(J.Seo)
Tom Glavine: Mon:CHC(K.Wood); Sat:MON(L.Hernandez)
Roger Clemens: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay); Sun:@TB(V.Zambrano)
Tim Hudson: Tue:SEA(F.Garcia); Sun:@TEX(C.H.Park)
Kevin Millwood: Mon:@FLO(J.Beckett); Sat:PIT(J.D'Amico)
Kris Benson: Mon:@CIN(J.Haynes); Sun:@PHI(B.Myers)
Brian Lawrence: Mon:SF(K.Rueter); Sat:LA(H.Nomo)
Adam Eaton: Tue:SF(J.Schmidt); Sun:LA(Od.Perez)
Kirk Rueter: Mon:@SD(B.Lawrence); Sun:@MIL(W.Franklin)
Matt Morris: Mon:MIL(B.Sheets); Sat:HOU(T.Redding)
Joe Kennedy: Mon:BOS(P.Martinez); Sat:NYY(J.Weaver)
Victor Zambrano: Tue:BOS(T.Wakefield); Sun:NYY(R.Clemens)
Roy Halladay: Mon:NYY(R.Clemens); Sat:@MIN(K.Rogers)
Cory Lidle: Tue:NYY(A.Pettitte); Sun:@MIN(C.Lidle)

Only deploy in Fantasy Baseball and other leagues that don't count qualitative stats:
Freddy Garcia: Tue:@OAK(T.Hudson); Sun:@TEX(C.H.Park)
Ismael Valdes: Sun:@ANA(J.Lackey); Fri:SEA(R.Franklin)
Chan Ho Park: Tue:@ANA(M.Callaway); Sun:SEA(F.Garcia)


Diamond Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Mon:LA(H.Nomo); Sat:@COL(D.Oliver)
Pedro Martinez: Mon:@TB(J.Kennedy); Sat:@BAL(Jas.Johnson)
Curt Schilling: Tue:LA(Od.Perez); Sun:@COL(J.Jennings)
Matt Morris: Mon:MIL(B.Sheets); Sat:HOU(T.Redding)
Roy Oswalt: Tue:COL(J.Jennings); Sun:@ATL(J.Simontacchi)
Kevin Millwood: Mon:@FLO(J.Beckett); Sat:PIT(J.D'Amico)
Kerry Wood: Mon:@NYM(T.Glavine); Sun:@CIN(P.Wilson)
Wade Miller: Wed:COL(A.Cook)
Tim Wakefield: Tue:@TB(V.Zambrano); Sun:@BAL(Rod.Lopez)
Roy Halladay: Mon:NYY(R.Clemens); Sat:@MIN(K.Rogers)
Jason Schmidt: Tue:@SD(A.Eaton)
Mark Prior: Thu:@NYM(S.Trachsel)
Josh Beckett: Mon:PHI(K.Millwood); Sat:@ATL(G.Maddux)

Ten different double starts give us incredible variety from which to choose, so we can carefully select the best starts. Pedro and Wakefield are obvious pulls given their opponents, and we're also quite confident in Oswalt. Randy's a good play even in Colorado and we're not willing to miss a single Randy double start under any circumstances this year. Schilling, while a risker play, still looks like a good bet for two wins, and I'm confident he'll avoid any serious qualitataive damage given that Coors historically plays fairly neutral for the first couple weeks of the season.

The weather actually guides our last decision as New York looks set for rain for most of the week, thereby jeopardizing Kerry's double start. All games near the Great Lakes also look in jeopardy, and since Matt Morris also is the sole pitcher on our list with two starts, we fell confident in deploying him.

Colorado faces Oswalt, Miller, Kim, Randy, and Schilling this week, making the Rockies particularly poor plays; we'll sit Jose Hernandez, Larry Walker, and Preston Wilson. We're also not willing to run Mark Teixeira until we grow convinced he'll receive regular playing time. Finally, Vlad will miss at least two games to suspension even before considering the weather in New York, so we'll bench him for week one.


Interview with the Umpire,
Shadow of the Umpire, &
Dance of the Umpires
Week 1: March 30-April 6

C	Eli Marrero		580
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Josh Phelps		670
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
SS	Orlando Cabrera		1030
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Ken Griffey, Jr. 	820
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Alex Rodriguez		2010
DH	Frank Thomas		920

SP	Randy Johnson		2010
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Matt Morris		1300
SP	Roy Oswalt		1280
SP	Tim Wakefield		900
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Matt Anderson		700
RP	Matt Mantei		700
RP	Jesus Colome		400


Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball
(Same game = same rosters and moves for both teams)

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Mon:LA(H.Nomo); Sat:@COL(D.Oliver)
Curt Schilling: Tue:LA(Od.Perez); Sun:@COL(J.Jennings)
Pedro Martinez: Mon:@TB(J.Kennedy); Sat:@BAL(Jas.Johnson)
Roy Oswalt: Tue:COL(J.Jennings); Sun:@ATL(J.Simontacchi)
Kerry Wood: Mon:@NYM(T.Glavine); Sun:@CIN(P.Wilson)
Kevin Millwood: Mon:@FLO(J.Beckett); Sat:PIT(J.D'Amico)
Roy Halladay: Mon:NYY(R.Clemens); Sat:@MIN(K.Rogers)
Jason Schmidt: Tue:@SD(A.Eaton)
Mark Prior: Thu:@NYM(S.Trachsel)
Kurt Ainsworth: Fri:@MIL(T.Ritchie)

Only seven double starts here give us relatively less options than in DC, however we remain quite confident in the first five starts. Millwood faces weaker offenses than Halladay, so we'll take Millwood as our sixth starter.

For our offense, we don't want to start the three Rockies, and we're pleased with Varitek instead of Marrero. Neither Hudson or Ramirez seem like particularly strong plays ata their respective positions, and we don't see an obvious upgrade for Thomas. Vlad remains in our lineup this week since we think he can produce in a points' league even if only playing a few games.


The Umpire Chronicles
& Umpire with a Soul
Week 1: March 30-April 6

C	Jason Varitek		1400
C	Toby Hall		1070
1B	Josh Phelps		1480
1B	Carlos Pena		1270
2B	Alfonso Soriano		2570
2B	Mark Ellis		1100
3B	Eric Hinske		1750
3B	Joe Crede		1150
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	2300
SS	Orlando Cabrera		1820
OF	Albert Pujols		3150
OF	Manny Ramirez		2690
OF	Pat Burrell		2420
OF	Ken Griffey, Jr. 	1900
OF	Austin Kearns		1600
OF	Hideki Matsui		1500
DH	Vlad Guerrero		3440
DH	Lance Berkman		2850

SP	Randy Johnson		4000
SP	Curt Schilling		3600
SP	Pedro Martinez		2900
SP	Roy Oswalt		2800
SP	Kerry Wood		2470
SP	Kevin Millwood		2400
RP	Keith Foulke		2330
RP	Matt Anderson		1260
RP	Matt Mantei		1200
RP	Jesus Colome		1000


Today's Fantasy Rx: Among closers valued over 1000 in DC, only Foulke looks like a reasonable play. Otherwise select only the cheapest relievers due to their limited, largely one-category contribution.


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