Today's Fantasy Rx

Diamond Challenge

Based on the strategies discussed we discussed back a year ago on February 26th and February 27th, we narrowed our options down to the following players.

We narrowed our position players choices through two methods. First, we calculated a player's contribution in each category according to the necessary stats to compete for 1st. For example, contending teams needed about 460 homers, so we divided each player's projected homers by 460, and then added the results of the four quantitative categories and multiplied by the player's BA. Then we multiply by 1160 to both correct for the desired BA and give us a number that looks similar to the listed salaries.

The second method we used involved the same fundamental calculations except we removed SB from the equation. Without considering some power hitters on their own merits, we'll wind up with 500 steals and 300 HR when we're targeting about 250 and 460 in the respective categories.

We're making three vital strategy changes this year to take advantage of what we learned last season.

First, we're simply not spending on expensive closers. Employing Isringhausen last year left us short on offense, and we'd rather spend the extra 300+ on hitters. Second, we're ditching the straight Coors platoon. We'll still keep Larry Walker, Preston Wilson, and Jose Hernandez due to their BA and quantitative upside, however we no longer view Helton as a viable option due to his back problems. Also, due to the struggles of Wilson and Hernandez against tougher pitching, we'll generally sit them unless we see an overtly favorable match-up.

Third, we're not planning nearly as many moves last year. In 2002 we planned acquisitions of Nomar, Vlad, Sosa, Oswalt, and an A's starter from the beginning of the season; those decisions cost us significant flexibility, especially when we hedged picking up Nomar. This season our only planned move is to roster an A's starter in a couple weeks for the first good double against non-AL West teams, thereby improving the odds of both extra wins and lower qualitative numbers.

Otherwise our general ideas regarding using players with advantageous schedules remain our primary guidelines.

Catchers: Only Eli Marrero(580) looks likely to earn a profit among catcher, although Toby Hall(460) at least earns a power profit. The only other catcher that appears worth considering is IRod at 1070. He should produce a season comparable to his listed salary, however we prefer the upside of the younger and cheaper catchers.

First Basemen: Todd Helton's back problems and the higher salaries of players like Sexson and Konerko rather drastically limit our options here. We settled on Josh Phelps(670) and Aubrey Huff(610) as the best bargains here, and while we considered Brad Fullmer and Carlos Pena, we chose Frank Thomas as a back-up. Thomas faces fairly week teams for the entire month, so while we're hesitant to use him, we like the upside of keeping him ready to enter the lineup.

Second Basemen: As in 2002, our choices are quite limited here. Alfonso Soriano(900) is absolutely necessary, however we can see a case for players like Ray Durham, Jerry Hairston, Mark Ellis, and Marcus Giles. Unfortunately we'd rather grab a pure speedster here, and Luis Castillo(1210) remains reasonably priced, we'll run the same two second baseman we employed a year ago.

Third Basemen: The notable salary increases Eric Chavez and Mike Lowell indicates that we should again target second basemen in the 500-1000 range. Aaron Boone(1010) is essential to own due to his 30/30 potential and great new hitters' park. We see a few good choices like Eric Hinske, Aramis Ramirez(820), Mark Teixeira, and Joe Crede to pair with Boone, and Ramirez seems like the best option since he looks primed for a strong rebound. The potential BA downside to Hinske and Crede worries us, and we're also not convinced Teixeira will play, so we'll also forego a back-up here.

Shortstop: ARod(2010)'s even more expensive and therefore no longer a necessary play in our opinion, however we also have room for a couple of high buck players. Nomar(1330) looks likely to compile relatively similar numbers at a much more efficient price, and while we remain very open to adding ARod in a couple weeks if he looks fully healthy, we won't open the year with him. We considered Derek Jeter, David Eckstein, and Jimmy Rollins here, but Orlando Cabrera(1030) and Jose Hernandez(940) seem significantly better choices. Cabrera's set for a great year, especially since he plays a quarter of his "home" games as a park roughly comparable to Coors. Hernandez plays half his games in Coors, and he looks uniquely positioned to take advantage of the park like no one since Bichette and Castilla in the mid-'90s. We'll open the year with all three of these shortstops on the roster.

Outfield: Vlad(2010), Berkman(1640), Ichiro(1440), and Larry Walker(1400) return to our team for another season. Due to our cheaper infield, we even have room to take Manny(1610) who should combine with Berkman to approach 100 HR and 300 RBI. While we generally won't run all five expensive OF in the same week, these players appear generally better bargains than comparably priced infielders.

The outfield also hosts dozens of intriguing cheaper options. Ken Griffey(820), Hideki Matsui(750), and Austin Kearns(650) seem vital due to our belief that most everyone will run all three most weeks. We debated for a while on not taking Griffey, however we can't justify excluding him when he'll earn his salary even if he doesn't improve on last years numbers while compiling about 450 AB. Plus, we always can drop him if he hits the DL.

At least one great OF speed source seems necessary, and we really like Dave Robert(620)' potential. We debated on taking Carl Crawford, too, however we neither like his skills nor his lineup. Roberts posted an 82% success rate last year, and we think he easily could steal over 50 bases.

Preston Wilson(1220) fills the last spot in our offense as he'll easily earn his salary in Coors. Like Hernandez, we'll leave him benched when we're concerned about his opponents, however we expect a very nice challenge season from him.

The key for starters is to select a group of dominant pitchers on good teams to accumulate wins and strikeouts while maintaining good qualitative marks. Randy Johnson(2010), Pedro(1700), and Schilling(1610) are absolutely necessary as the most consistently effective pitchers over the last few years. Roy Oswalt(1280) joins them this year as perhaps the fourth best starter in the game based on his skills since reaching the majors.

Looking over our projections, obvious additions to our staff include Kerry Wood(990), Roy Halladay(890), Jason Schmidt(790), and Mark Prior(750). All four pitch for teams likely to challenge for playoff spots, and Wood and Prior in particular should accumulate over 100 strikeouts.

As we only planned to carry five reserve position players, we have space for five more pitchers. Matt Morris(1300), Kevin Millwood(1010), and Wade Miller(990) all merit spots on most challenge teams. All three are priced reasonably for their performance, and all three also look set to approach 20 wins. I see some risk in each pitcher, but not enough to warrant exclusion from our roster.

We considered nearly every Yankee and Athletic starter for our last two slots, but we're not convinced that any of New York's starter will post truly impressive numbers, and neither team has anyone with a particularly intriguing double start for the first couple weeks.

Instead we're taking Josh Beckett(700) and Tim Wakefield(900). Beckett owns as much potential as Prior, and while he shouldn't win as many games, he gives us another relatively cheap starter. Wakefield sees a fantastic double in week one against Tampa and Baltimore, making this a very solid low percentage play for which we don't mind the short-term risk.

Among cheaper pitchers that will interest us as soon as they face less daunting opposition, Kurt Ainsworth stands out as someone we'd like to roster. However we don't like his pitching schedule in April, so we'll stick with the baker's dozen of starters already listed with their salaries.

Our biggest mistake last year involved overpaying for saves and thereby costing us the salary space to regularly start another couple of power hitters. Therefore we have no intention of rostering any DC closer with a salary over 1000. Scott Williamson(960), Matt Anderson(700), and Matt Mantei(700) all are excellent bets as each should save around 30 games while providing acceptable qualitative numbers. While we'd love to own Keith Foulke despite his 1280 salary, we don't believe he's worth the expenditure on our initial offer. Therefore our final relief choice lies between a 980 Danys Baez, who we're not convinced will reach 30 saves, a 750 Mike MacDougal, who still suffered from notable control problems, and Jesus Colome(400), who dominates hitters as much as the first two closers while costing as little as any pitcher. Even though Tampa should struggle through another season, we're comfortable holding Colome for his 20+ saves, although if any starting pitcher emerges as a closer, we'll gladly roster him since we're slightly concerned about our save totals. Of course we won't object to lower total of save points in saves if we can manage 7000+ in every offensive category.

Our probable opening roster for:

Interview with the Umpire,
Shadow of the Umpire, &
Dance of the Umpires

C	Eli Marrero		580
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Josh Phelps		670
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
SS	Orlando Cabrera		1030
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Ken Griffey, Jr. 	820
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Alex Rodriguez		2010
DH	Frank Thomas		920

SP	Randy Johnson		2010
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Matt Morris		1300
SP	Roy Oswalt		1280
SP	Tim Wakefield		900
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Matt Anderson		700
RP	Matt Mantei		700
RP	Jesus Colome		400

Taxi Squad

SS	Jose Hernandez		940
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1480
OF	Larry Walker		1400
OF	Preston Wilson		1220
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Kerry Wood		990
SP	Wade Miller		990
SP	Roy Halladay		890
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Mark Prior		750
SP	Josh Beckett		700

Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball

Based on the strategies discussed that we discussed back on February 28th, we narrowed our options down to the following players. For a shorthand dollar valuation, we divided projected points by salary to give us a quick percentage look at the relative worth of players as points are of equal worth. Good players have ratings around .250-.300, and the top bargains in the game will be over .350.

Salaries for these two games are roughly double that from the Challenges, but there are important differences that create new bargains. Here's the points' breakdown again:

Hitting Points
Single: 1 point
Double: 2 points
Triple: 3 points
Home Run: 4 points
RBI or Run: 1 point each
Walk: 1 point
Stolen Base: 1 point

Pitching Points
Win: 10 points
Save: 10 points
IP: 1 point each (.333 point for each third of an inning pitched)
Strikeout: 1 point

BBW Fantasy Baseball requires every team to spend exactly 8 of their 12 bench spots on offense, so we're going to take a backup at each position to insure us in case of injury to a starter. It also allows us to maximize 7 game weeks.

We only considered players who possess relatively solid skills.

Catchers: Toby Hall(1070) led all catchers at a .292 ratings, and none of the more expensive catchers even cracked .210. While A.J.Pierzynski's .227 rating tempted us, the .265 of Eli Marrero(1240) and .257 of Jason Varitek(1400) look like much better bets to us.

First Basemen: Four first basemen finished with ratings over .300: Erubiel Durazo at .391, Carlos Pena(1270) at .383, Josh Phelps(1480) at .351, and Aubrey Huff at .339. We don't completely trust the playing time of Durazo or Huff, so we'll take Pena and Phelps, and then we have room for one of the pricier 1B. Frank Thomas(2030) easily posted the best rating at .275, so he'll join our team as our third first basemen.

Second Basemen: Among the solid 2B above 1500, Alfonso Soriano(2570) scored several dozen points more than the next best 2B at .246; we also suspect most owners will roster him. Mark Ellis(1100) posted the best score of any infielder at .402, and Orlando Hudson(1000) managed a .345, over 25% better than Jerry Hairston, Jr.

Third Basemen: We see a lot of respectable options here as even Chavez and Koskie aren't poor options, but Joe Crede(1150) managed a .368 score and Eric Hinske(1750) posted a .296, giving them an obvious advantage over most alternatives. The .248 of Aramis Ramirez(1800), combined with his guaranteed playing time, made him a logical third choice over Mark Teixeira.

Shortstop: ARod doesn't even seem as good a choice as Jeter, not to mention someone like Eckstein. Nomar(2300) leads all shortstops at .280, and while we considered Jimmy Rollins's .266, we prefer the upside of Orlando Cabrera(1820) at .230 and Jose Hernandez(1780) at .228 for when the former plays in Puerto Rico and the latter starts at home in Coors.

Outfield: Hideki Matsui(1500) secured the second best score of any offensive player at .411, however despite Carl Crawford's top mark of .432, we don't trust his output, especially given Tampa's relatively tough early-season schedule. Mike Cuddyer managed a .368, but we also aren't positive he'll remain in the lineup on a consistent basis after a rather tough spring.

After selecting relatively inexpensive infielders we can splurge on better outfield talent. Vernon Wells(1780) scored a .284, Manny(2690) a .271, Berkman(2850) a .265, and Burrell(2420) a .262. Given the upside of their home parks, we also like Vlad(3440) at .240, Preston Wilson(2410) at .211, and Larry Walker(2500) at .162. Austin Kearns(1600) at .269 and Ken Griffey(1900) at .203 also seem likely to be owned by nearly anyone.

We examined several options for our last slot, but since we can afford another expensive player in our lineup most weeks, Albert Pujols(3150) looked like the best value at .230 over the injured Carlos Beltran. Other top scores we skipped include Raul Ibanez's .274 and Randy Winn' .260.

The majority of our pitchers remained as easy as the DC group. Randy(4000), Schilling(3600), Pedro(2900), and Oswalt(2800) seemed obvious picks, and we also wanted to keep Wood(2470), Millwood(24000, Halladay(2010), Schmidt(1990), and Prior(1800) on this squad. On our only addition is Kurt Ainsworth(1000), who gives us some extra flexibility with his minimum and salary and likely will finish the year as the best bargain on our staff.

For closers, we again wanted an inexpensive group of pitchers, however the set points increases the value of a Keith Foulke(2330) over that in DC. We added Matt Anderson(1260), Matt Mantei(1200), and Jesus Colome(1000) as the remaining most economical relief pitchers available.

Here's our probable opening roster for:

The Umpire Chronicles

C	Jason Varitek		1400
C	Toby Hall		1070
1B	Josh Phelps		1480
1B	Carlos Pena		1270
2B	Alfonso Soriano		2570
2B	Mark Ellis		1100
3B	Eric Hinske		1750
3B	Joe Crede		1150
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	2300
SS	Orlando Cabrera		1820
OF	Albert Pujols		3150
OF	Manny Ramirez		2690
OF	Pat Burrell		2420
OF	Ken Griffey, Jr. 	1900
OF	Austin Kearns		1600
OF	Hideki Matsui		1500
DH	Vlad Guerrero		3440
DH	Lance Berkman		2850

SP	Randy Johnson		4000
SP	Curt Schilling		3600
SP	Pedro Martinez		2900
SP	Roy Oswalt		2800
SP	Kerry Wood		2470
SP	Kevin Millwood		2400
RP	Keith Foulke		2330
RP	Matt Anderson		1260
RP	Matt Mantei		1200
RP	Jesus Colome		1000

taxi squad

C	Eli Marrero		1240
1B	Frank Thomas		2030
2B	Orlando Hudson		1000
3B	Aramis Ramirez		1800
SS	Jose Hernandez		1780
OF	Larry Walker		2500
OF	Preston Wilson		3150
OF	Vernon Wells		1780
SP	Roy Halladay		2010
SP	Jason Schmidt		1990
SP	Mark Prior		1800
SP	Kurt Ainsworth		1000

Lumber Co. Budget Baseball Note: We're going to enter the same roster for our LB teams as our FB team despite the availability of additional strategies to take maximum advantage of free transactions.

Tomorrow we'll discuss our Challenge lineups for the first week.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Opening SunDay is tomorrow, so make your plans to find a TV with ESPN to watch Texas @ Anaheim at 7pm Central.