Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV of $-1 and $-2

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

110.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dan Reichert		3	0	5.32	1.55	36	25	77	66
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		-14
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	0		-1		-11		R

Reichert still hasn't recovered from Kansas City promoting him to the majors back in 1999 before he'd refined his control, and he's demonstrated very poor command over the pat few years. He only failed to reach the horrendous values we projected because KC finally tired of his performance and exiled him first to the bullpen and then to the minors before waiving him in September, a surprising development considering they chose him with the 7th overall pick in 1997. Unfortunately, the only positive news in his stats is a consistent G-F rate above 2.00, and I don't believe he receives much benefit from switching teams since Tropicana isn't a significantly better pitchers' park than Kauffman Stadium. Hopefully Tampa will use his one remaining option to help him recover his lost skills, although even AA might be too high a starting point considering his 14:13 K:BB in 16 IP with 16 H over 13 G between AAA Omaha(PCL) and AA Wichita(TL) last season. There's obviously no justification for drafting Reichert even if manages to break camp with the Rays, but I see enough latent talent here to expect he'll re-emerge as a solid pitcher within the next few years.

111.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dave Maurer		0	0	13.50	2.25	0	0	3	1.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Maurer.

112.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roy Smith		0	0	3.00	2.33	2	5	9	6
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-1		-2

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Smith.

113.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jorge Sosa		2	0	5.53	1.43	48	54	88	99.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-4

Prior to his selection in the 2001 Rule 5 draft, Sosa had pitched a total of 60.2 professional innings and appeared in only two games above Rookie-ball. Logically he should have split this season between A-ball and High-A, so I'm surprised he even managed to post an acceptable hit rate. Keeping Sosa in the majors disgraced the Devil Rays since employing him erased any pretense of competition in favor of using all levels of their organization as talent collection and development outposts. As Sosa failed to post a 1.0 K:BB as either a starter or reliever, hopefully he's exiled to the lower reaches of Tampa's system for the next three seasons until he develops the necessary skills to succeed in the majors.

114.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Rocker		2	1	6.66	1.73	30	13	29	24.1
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		4		6
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		-2		4		5

While Rocker remains a ridiculously dominant pitcher, his persistent control problems and lingering off-field issues leave him practically unemployable. The biggest question he'll face is whether to join the Northern or Atlantic Leagues since no team seems willing to offer him even a minor league deal. He's similarly not worth owning in roto given his poor recent performance, injury troubles, and general volatility, making him someone to avoid for the foreseeable future.

115.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Austin		0	0	4.91	1.82	6	6	14	11
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2				2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-3

Kansas City selected Austin with the 4th pick of the draft a year after taking Dan Reichert at #7, and their failure to develop either pitcher into a quality starter indicts their entire minor league system. Austin looked like a great prospect until he struggled upon his first exposure to AAA, and instead of giving him a year or two to pitch through his difficulties, the Royals responded by converting him to the bullpen. Fortunately he's matured into an intriguing relief prospect, and I like the upside suggested by his 3.27 ERA on a 44:15 K:BB in 52.1 IP with 54 H and 2 HR over 39 G at AAA Omaha(PCL) last season. With career Major League marks of an 8.0 K/9 and 1.42 G-F, Austin only needs to improve his control in the big leagues to emerge as a useful reliever. He's far more qualified than any other internal candidate under 35 for the Royals' closing job, so as long as Austin breaks camp with Kansas City, he'll merit a bid of a couple bucks based on his positive skill trends and saves' upside.

116.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Taylor		0	0	9.00	1.60	6	0	8	5
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-4

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Seattle Prospects for comments on Taylor.

117.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt L. Miller		0	0	13.50	7.50	1	1	4	0.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-3		1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-3		1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Miller.

118.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Randy Choate		0	0	6.04	1.48	17	15	18	22.1
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-3		-2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4		-3		1

The Yankees really want to keep Choate this season as a lefty specialist, however their pitching staff looks quite full with six starters, Rivera, Karsay, Hammond, Osuna, Hitchcock, and perhaps Juan Acevedo. Only a trade of Hitchcock will guarantee Choate's spot in the majors, so I doubt Choate will see more than 30 innings in New York this season. Of course I'm not too concerned from a fantasy standpoint since he's a flyball pitcher with questionable control who struggles against right-handers, and his 32:15 K:BB in 36.2 IP with 25 H and 0 HR over 31 G at AAA Columbus(IL) isn't an overly impressive stat line. Now I understand the Yankees like him because he's held lefties to a .537 OPS in his three-year career, but I don't see anything here that currently makes him attractive to roto owners.

119.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Lorenzo Barcelo		0	0	9.00	1.67	1	1	9	6
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		3		R
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-3		2

Barcelo's only pitched about 3 months out of the last two seasons due to injury, so he hasn't had the chance to display adequate skills since 2000. Chicago pushed him to return quickly from his shoulder surgery two years ago, and we're fairly certain he still hasn't completely recovered. While I believe Barcelo only needs to demonstrate good healthy and solid skills for a couple month in AAA before he returns to the majors, although after the Sox cut him loose after the season, he could land anywhere this year. He should contribute to some fantasy teams in a couple years, but I doubt Barcelo will see more than a few innings in the big leagues in 2003.

120.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jake Westbrook		1	0	5.83	1.49	20	12	50	41.2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		-3
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-4		-3

He needed arthriscopic surgery on his elbow a year ago, returned to pitch for about six weeks in July and August, and then returned to the DL for the rest of the seasons with further elbow problems. Although Westbrook owns a solid foundation of skills and doesn't seem far from succeeding in the majors, Cleveland's current state of rebuilding does not seem like the most conducive environment for him to emerge. I don't advise gambling on Westbrook this year unless he posts solid skills in both the minors and several appearances with the Indians.

121.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Shouse		0	0	6.14	1.64	11	9	15	14.2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-3		-3
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-2		-3		-3

Shouse is merely one of many AAAA lefty relievers with decent dominance who probably deserves a longer look in the majors than he'll ever receive. Between AAA Omaha(PCL) and AAA New Orleans(PCL) he compiled a 22:4 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 24 G with 24 H and 2 HR, so he definitely appears capable of contributing in a more significant role. Texas probably will give him a few innings at some point this year, however I unfortunately see no evidence he'll get a greater opportunity any time soon, making Shouse a poor fantasy option until he establishes himself on someone's big league roster.

122.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rudy Seanez		1	0	5.73	1.58	40	24	28	33
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		0		R
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-2		-4		-1

Seanez is competing for the only available spot in the Rangers' bullpen after the five right-handers with Major League deals and the requisite lefty. We believe he holds a small edge at the moment based on his normal productivity, although Texas may be somewhat frustrated after Seaeez missed the majority of last season thanks to biceps tendinitis and back surgery to repair a herniated disc. Of course Seanez remained quite dominant as he again exceeded his 9.0 career strikeout rate, but continuing control problems left him displaying roughly his worst command in a decade. Seanez is an acceptable injury replacement when he's healthy, in the majors, and demonstrating solid skills, however those three conditions only seem to correlate for two-to-three months each year.

123.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Justin Kaye		0	0	12.00	2.33	3	1	6	3
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		-1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	0		-1		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Seattle Prospects for comments on Kaye.

124.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Jimenez		0	0	7.36	1.91	5	2	12	7.1
TB/DET		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-4

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Jimenez.

125.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Anthony Telford		2	1	6.46	1.90	19	15	30	23.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	-2		-4

Telford's career looks to be winding down after his poor performance with Texas and an equally troubling 35:21 K:BB in 50.1 IP over 35 G at AAA Oklahoma(PCL). Moving from Arlington to Minute Maid Park not only keeps his upside quite limited but even reduces his chance to see much time in the majors given the quality of the Astros' young pitchers. I see no evidence that Telford will reemerge as a viable fantasy option.

126.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tom Martin		0	0	16.20	3.60	1	1	5	1.2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-4

Martin missed nearly all of 2002 with a strained rotator cuff, though even when healthy he's never managed to translate his solid AAA numbers into big league success. Career marks of a 1.4 K:BB and 6.0 K/9 leave him with little upside, and since he's averaged only 15.1 innings and a 5.28 ERA in each of the last four seasons, he does not deserve consideration for your fantasy roster.

127.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Paniagua		0	1	5.83	1.56	34	15	50	41.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3				1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-4				R

Paniagua's primary problem is that after posting a 1.53 G-F in 1999, he's registered G-F marks of .87, .66, and .63, leaving himself at risk to give up a homer or two in nearly every outing despite playing half his games in 2002 at Comerica. While he managed a 7.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 last season, his ERA suffered thanks to an abundance of homers and the problems of Detroit's poor defense, so the Tigers released him on the same September day they cut Jose Lima. I'm somewhat surprised he hasn't attracted more interest, but as I'm not comfortable recommending Paniagua given his current statistical profile, I understand why GMs are equally reluctant to sign him.

128.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Heath Murray		0	0	7.50	1.58	11	7	12	12
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-3

Signed by the Cubs, one of the few teams that now possess two established quality lefties, Murray otherwise looks ready to emerge as a solid middle reliever. He posted a 32:6 K:BB in 29.2 IP with 23 H and 2 HR over 21 G with AAA Buffalo(IL) last year, although despite maintaining his dominance upon his promotion and even improving his career G-F ratio to 1.60, he didn't impress thanks to allowing 3 homers in 12 innings. Unfortunately he wound up missing the last 10 weeks of the season with shoulder inflammation that required September surgery, so until we see 2003 stats from Murray we won't know if he's maintained his skills. While I remain intrigued by his long-term upside, I also don't believe he'll make a noticeable fantasy contribution this season.

129.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Terry Pearson		0	0	10.50	1.67	4	2	8	6
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-4

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Pearson.

130.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nate Field		0	0	9.00	2.20	3	3	8	5
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York(A) Prospects for comments on Field.

131.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kris Keller		0	0	27.00	5.00	1	3	2	1
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-4

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Atlanta Prospects for comments on Keller.

132.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Victor Zambrano		8	1	5.53	1.65	73	68	120	114
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		9		8
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-4		9		1

My biggest concern regarding Zambrano in 2003 is burnout as he'd only started six games in his six-year career before he started 11 of his 42 appearances last season. Like Travis Phelps, Zambrano looked primed to compete for save opportunities before sudden control problems earned him a midseason demotion. Unfortunately, even though his control improved after he joined the rotation, his dominance also slipped, giving us little hope that he can manage decent numbers as a starter without a surprising improvement in his consistency. Zambrano owns sufficient skill to warrant a Dollar Days flyer if you can reserve him when he struggles, but Tampa's general malaise makes him too risky to own in leagues with stringent transaction guidelines.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We recently had the chance to look over an intriguing study of the sophomore slump by one of our readers, and as we examine his findings we'd like to compare his work with any previous studies. Although we found a brief article in the 2001 STATS Baseball Scoreboard using Runs Created and a study about a decade ago that focuses on HR, K, etc., we're interested in looking over any other available material. Please let us know if you're aware of any other research dealing with the sophomore slump in baseball, as well as where we might find the studies in question.