Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV of $-1

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

87.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Eyre		2	0	4.46	1.55	58	36	80	74.2
TOR/SF		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-1		0		R
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	0		0		1		R

Eyre began the season as Toronto's fifth starter, where he compiled a 9.42 ERA on a 13:5 K:BB in 14.1 IP with 18 H and 3 HR, and somehow finished the year as the Giants' primary lefty reliever in the World Series. His .629 OPS allowed against lefties isn't bad, and as long as he doesn't face many right-handers, I think he can make a positive contribution to both San Francisco and some fantasy teams. In 2001 he posted a 3.18 ERA on a 96:26 K:BB in 79.1 IP with 67 H and 8 HR over 62 G at AAA Syracuse(IL), and since he managed a 7.0 K/9 and career-best marks of a .5 HR/9 and 1.35 G-F, I believe his immediate upside looks fairly promising. I don't suspect him to earn much draft value, but he shouldn't hurt you as a Dollar Days pick or as roster filler.

88.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eric DuBose		0	0	3.00	1.33	4	1	7	6
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-1		-3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Baltimore Prospects for comments on DuBose.

89.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nerio Rodriguez		0	0	3.86	1.07	2	1	4	4.2
CLE/STL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-1		-3

Both Cleveland and St. Louis erred in not given Rodriguez a longer look. He compiled a 7-3 record and a 2.21 ERA on an 87:22 K:BB in 126 IP with 97 H and 13 HR over 18 GS(21G) between AAA Buffalo(IL) and AAA Memphis(PCL). His only notable problems are a flyball tendency that limits his upside and the general reluctance of MLB teams to give extended chances to any "unproven veterans" over 30. So while he's worth your consideration when he's in the majors regardless of his role, Nerio's a very risky buy until he starts posting some decent numbers for a week or two and establishes himself on a roster.

90.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Lukasiewicz		2	0	3.86	1.86	15	9	17	14
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-1		-1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		-2		-2

Anaheim picked up an intriguing relief prospect when they grabbed Lukasiewicz off waivers at the end of the 2000 season. Over the past two year he's compiled a 2.95 ERA on an 89:19 K:BB in 73.1 IP with 58 H and 10 HR over 55 G at AAA Salt Lake(PCL). While he hasn't even dominated left-hander in his 41 games in the majors, his 40:18 KBB in 36.1 IP, along with a respectable 1.06 G-F, suggests he merits a long look from the Angels even if they don't open a bullpen spot by trading Schoeneweis. Feel free to employ him as roster filler whenever he's available since effective work in Salt Lake translates nicely into success in the AL.

91.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Todd Van Poppel		3	1	5.45	1.50	85	29	80	72.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-1		6		R
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	1		1		6		1

We obviously badly missed in selecting Van Poppel as someone likely to earn several bucks of value thanks to vulturing double-digit wins. However despite little change in his strikeout or G-F rates, and a drop from 4.6 to 3.6 BB/9, his homer rate shot from 1.1 to 1.7 HR/9 and the Rangers' defense let his hit rate balloon from 7.6 to 9.9 H/9. While he managed PDV in 5x5 leagues thank to his excellent 10.5 K/9, his second half struggles leave his 2003 value at a questionable level. Fortunately he's still the most dominant veteran middle reliever on Texas, giving him an excellent chance to vulture several wins this season when the Rangers should improve in most areas. I'll admit drafting Van Poppel is a gamble, but we'll look to add him for a buck or two in any of our leagues with liberal reserve rules since his upside remains intriguing.

92.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeremy Affeldt		3	0	4.64	1.57	67	37	85	77.2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-1		0
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	0		0		-1

In 2001 Affeldt posted a 10-6 record and 3.90 ERA on a 128:46 K:BB in 145.1 IP over 25 GS with 153 H and 9 HR for AA Wichita(TL), and then Kansas City promoted him to the majors due to their lack of lefties. He quickly joined the half-dozen young lefty relievers with significant upside as starters like Lilly and Fossum thanks to compiling a 4.03 ERA on a 42:18 K:BB in 44.2 IP with 47 H and 4 HR over 27 G. Yet even after we specifically targeted him on a team we needed to rebuild in May, we saw nothing wrong with trading him away later in the year to acquire young hitting talent. Affeldt struggled terribly as a starter, registering a 25:19 K:BB in 33 IP with 38 H and 4 HR, and I don't expect a significant rebound from him in 2003 considering he skipped AAA. More importantly, he continued suffering from blisters on his pitching hand all the way into winter ball, leaving him questionable for the start of the season unless he changes his repertoire. Consequently, while his future remains quite bright, I wouldn't gamble more than a couple bucks given the potential for a recurrence of his blister problems and the downside of pitching in front of a questionable defense in a great hitters' park. He's only worth more than a couple dollars if the Royals pledge to leave him in relief for a few months before moving him into the rotation.

93.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Juan Alvarez		0	0	4.76	1.41	30	21	35	39.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		-2

As Alvarez never even displayed acceptable control in the minors, we had no reason to expect him to succeed in Texas, especially considering his .84 G-F. He's displayed little dominance while also allowing lefties to post a higher OPS(.877) than right-handers(.798). Alvarez signed with Florida a couple days ago, and while he's in a better position to succeed with the Marlins thanks to their park and defense, I don't expect him to see much time in the majors since Armando Almanza and Michael Tejera possess much more upside.

94.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cory Bailey		3	1	4.11	1.83	24	31	53	46
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-1		2		R
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-1		-2		3

Very little about Baily's year makes sense. He compiled a 6.94 ERA in 11.1 April innings thanks to allowing 3 homers even though he posted a 2.59 G-F in 2002. Then he somehow managed a .92 ERA in May despite an atrocious 9:15 K:BB in 19.2 IP before slipping to a 5.14 ERA on a 5:9 K:BB in 14 IP in June. One disastrous outing in early July earned him an All-Star break demotion, and while he somehow managed a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 AAA innings, KC didn't bother recalling him in September. Now he still displayed enough talent where he might not hurt as roster filler, however there's no reason to gamble on him due to his .8 K:BB until he again demonstrates decent skills over several outings

95.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Venafro		2	0	4.62	1.59	16	14	45	37
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-1		0
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		-2		-1		R

Venafro was the only member of Oakland's Three Blind Mikes lefty reliever corps to even approach PDV in 2002, and with career marks of a 4.6 K/9 and a 3.5 BB/9, he's displayed far worse command than Messrs. Holtz and Magnante. The area in which Venafro thrives is G-F ratio, where he owns a 2.79 career mark and managed a 2.36 G-F in 2002. Now with Atlanta as their second lefty after Ray King, I wouldn't risk drafting Venafro given his terribly inconsistent track record, although if he takes after Chris Hammond and holds a 2.0+ K:BB after 10 or more appearances, I'd strongly consider adding him when I needed an injury replacement.

96.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Travis Phelps		1	0	4.78	1.51	36	27	30	37.2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		2		1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-2		3		R

Phelps looked prepared for an epic battle again Esteban Yan and Carlos Zambrano to close for Tampa in 2002. An 89th round selection in the 1996 draft, he's the lowest draft pick to ever reach the majors by a good 15 rounds, a distinction he should hold for many years. Tampa converted him to the bullpen in 2001 even though he displayed solid promise as a starter, even posting a 3.00 ERA on a 106:46 K:BB in 108 IP with 85 H and 5 HR over 21 GS at AA Orlando(SL). Of course he exploded onto the roto scene after only 9 nearly perfect relief appearances at AAA, compiling very impressive marks in his Major League debut. Unfortunately he allowed three earned runs thank to two homers over his first four appearances this year, earning a trip back to the minor until late June. The good news is he managed a 34:14 K:BB in 31 IP with 29 H and 2 HR over 27 G at AAA Durham(IL), however he continued struggling upon his return, managing just a 4.99 ERA on a 29:23 K:BB in 30.2 IP with 25 H and 5 HR as his G-F fell from 1.00 in 2001 to a .52 mark last season. Phelps look like one or the rare cases where I'd base my decision to gamble on him based on his Spring Training stats. If he's dominating hitters while displaying good command, then bid a buck or two since he could wind up as Tampa's closer by the end of the month as he till owns his skills from 2001. However I wouldn't risk a bid here if he's only running an 8:5 K:BB in 13.2 IP like last season.

97.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
C.J. Nitkowski		0	0	2.63	1.76	14	13	11	13.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		-2

Nitkowski covered nearly 20% of the team in the PCL by playing for New Orleans, Memphis, and Oklahoma last season before Texas promoted him at the end of the year. He compiled a 43:20 K:BB in 47.1 IP with 53 H and 4 HR between his three AAA teams, yet while he's a decent AAAA pitcher, I don't see him finding much more success in the majors. Over the last three years he's registered a 105:73 K:BB in 121.1 IP over 129 games out of the bullpen, along with only a marginal .716 allowed against left-handers. Fortunately he's posted a 70:28 K:BB against lefties compared to a terrible 67:68 K:BB versus right-handers, so he apparently retains some value as a specialist. However I don't see him contributing to any fantasy teams in the near future.

98.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Donne Wall		0	0	6.43	1.14	13	7	17	21
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		-3
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	-1		-3		-3

Not only has Wall displayed questionable command for a few years, but also after he compiled a 1.29 G-F in 2000, his G-F ratio fell to consecutive career-worst marks of .85 and .80 G-F. He owns a troublesome reverse platoon split, and while holding lefties to a .640 OPS gives him some value, most franchises prefer right-handed relievers that dominate all opponents. There's a chance he won't hurt you as roster filler if he even breaks camp with a team, I don't advise acquiring him unless he's holding good skill ratios after a few weeks back in the major.

99.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike MacDougal		0	0	5	1.33	10	7	5	9
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	-1		-2		-3		R
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-3		-3		R

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for comments on MacDougal.

100.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Julio Mateo		0	0	4.29	1.52	15	12	20	21
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-3

Mateo only has 32 appearances in the upper minors, so spending another few months refining his talents certainly wouldn't hurt. However he compiled a 41:10 K:BB in 48.1 IP with 46 H and 4 HR allowed between AA San Antonio(TL) and AAA Tacoma(PCL), so he also doesn't seem far from the majors. While he only appeared in 12 games for Seattle and therefore didn't register a significant sample size, I'm concerned about his extreme platoon split; he dominated right-handers, only allowing them a .413 OPS, yet lefties crushed Mateo for a 1.085 OPS in roughly the same number of at-bats. I definitely think he'll emerge as an intriguing roto option in either the second half of 2003 or in 2004, however he's not worth drafting since he hasn't demonstrated solid skills in the majors and doesn't currently possess notable upside as the 4th or 5th right-handed reliever on the Mariners.

101.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Corey Thurman		2	0	4.37	1.62	56	45	65	68
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		-3		R
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-3		-2

One of the best Rule 5 selections from a season ago thanks to his 148:65 K:BB in 155 IP with 117 H and 16 HR over 25 G at AA Wichita(TL), Thurman certainly could have used at least one season at AAA. His only real success occurred due to a 7.4 K/9 and a decent 8.6 H/9, especially since his .69 G-F, 1.5 HR/9, and 6.0 BB/9 all indicate much immediate downside. Thurman allowed an identical .804 OPS to both left-handed and right-handed batters, and while he improved from a 1.1 to a 1.6 K:BB in the second half, he also jumped from a .4 HR/9 to a sickening 3.1 HR/9 after the break. Fortunately Toronto looks perfectly willing to give him a year or two in the minors under their control since his strikeout rate suggests he'll still emerge as a quality starter. I wouldn't risk bidding on Thurman if he somehow breaks camp with the team, but he merits consideration as a low round minor league pick since he could help in the second half.

102.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jay Tessmer		0	0	6.75	1.50	0	2	0	1.1
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	0		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York (A) Prospects for comments on Tessmer.

103.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeremy Hill		0	0	3.86	1.71	7	8	8	9.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for comments on Hill.

104.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Travis Miller		0	0	4.50	1.75	3	2	5	4
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		-4
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	0		0		-4

The Cubs looked at Miller for only a month in AAA after Minnesota released him before they also dumped him, a surprising decision given their eternal quest for a relatively established left-handed reliever. Though Miller is far less consistent than Mark Guthrie, he owns similar skills and costs far less than the veteran lefty. Of course Miller generally allows a surprising abundance of baserunners regardless of the defense behind him, and while I liked his 24:5 K:BB in 29.1 IP at AAA Edmonton(PCL), he slipped to a 13:13 K:BB in 26.1 IP between AAA Iowa(PCL) and AAA Buffalo(IL). He recently joined Cincinnati as one of their half-dozen inexpensive lefty relievers, and given the competition he'll face and his poor second half, I see no reason to roster Miller until he demonstrates solid skills for a couple weeks in the majors.

105.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Wiggins		0	0	3.38	2.25	3	1	5	2.2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Toronto Prospects for comments on Wiggins.

106.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Erik Bedard		0	0	13.50	3.00	1	0	2	0.2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Baltimore Prospects for comments on Bedard.

107.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Wilson Alvarez		2	1	5.28	1.55	56	36	80	75
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2		-3		R
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-3		-3		R

I may be about the only columnist prepared to recommend Alvarez to roto owners even though he hasn't demonstrated solid skills since joining Tampa Bay five seasons ago. He pitched terribly as a starter in 2002, compiling a 6.32 ERA on a 31:24 K:BB in 47 IP with 55 H and 10 HR over 10 GS. However when left the rotation, he posted a 3.54 ERA on a 25:12 K:BB in 28 IP with 25 H and 3 HR over 13 relief appearances. Now his .58 G-F rate is troubling, but he's moving from the 6th worst pitchers' park in the majors to the best pitchers' park while also discarding the 7th worst defense in the majors for the second best defense. Alvarez possesses much more upside for the Dodgers than Pedro Borbon or similar AAAA fodder, and while I wouldn't bother drafting Alvarez, feel free to roster him as soon as mid-April if he's demonstrating good command.

108.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eric Eckenstahler		1	0	5.63	2.00	13	2	14	8
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Eckenstahler.

109.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
David Riske		2	1	5.26	1.64	65	35	49	51.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		4		1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-3		5		3

After dominating both AAA Buffalo and most of his Major League opponents in 2001, Riske looked ready to emerge as Cleveland's top set-up man last season. However a career-worst .73 G-F left him with a 1.4 HR/9, and after an impressive April in which he posted a 14:4 K:BB in 11.1 IP with 11 H and 1 HR, he slipped to a 23:15 K:BB in 16 IP over the next six weeks before a strained back muscle forced him to the DL. He headed to AAA Buffalo(IL) almost immediately after returning in July, where he compiled a 17:4 K:BB in 9.2 IP with 6 H and 2 HR. I logically see little reason for Riske to stay in the minors given that level of dominance, and while his 10.5 K/9 over the last six weeks of the season definitely impressed me, a 6.5 BB/9 in the same period is troubling. Drafting him is a high-risk, high-upside proposition, and since he's no better than third in line for Indians' saves, I wouldn't bother selecting him in the spring, although feel free to employ Riske as roster filler as long as his strikeout and walk rates are solid.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Happy Pitchers and Catchers! Seattle's potential batteries reported to Arizona today, and given the success of Anaheim's mascot last year, hopefully they soon will adopt the Energizer Bunny as their cartoonish good luck charm.

If you desire to visit either Phoenix or Florida before the season starts, we recommend that you complete your travel plans immediately if you have not already finished them as the first Spring Training games begin in less than three weeks.