Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Second Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Stynes		195	47	.241	5	26	1	25	2/3
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		1		7		5
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	1		1		8		4

The best NL position player who didn't earn PDV in 2002, Stynes should find playing time in a larger role for a club more desperate for decent infield help than the Cubs. His weak production this season still left him with a .880 OPS against lefties over the last three years. However, Stynes also posted some of the best skills of his career, including a 3.78 #P/PA and .11 walk rate, both career-highs, and a very good .87 G-F. Assuming he at least finds a job as a top infield backup, I'd happily bid a buck or two on Stynes in the endgame given this upside.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Delino DeShields		146	28	.192	3	10	10	20	2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		0		17		17
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	0		0		16		18

DeShields's .600 OPS resulted in no other team signing him after the Cubs released him in early August. His disastrous season is somewhat surprising considering he saw a respectable 3.90 #P/PA and posted a .14 walk rate. The problem was a .74 contact rate, and when combined with a 2.40 G-F, we see that DeShields simply wasn't driving the ball at all. A 91% SB success rate indicates he still possesses great speed, and considering he's only now entering his mid-30s, he seems fully capable of rebounding with another strong season. Assuming he finds at least a regular platoon job in 2003, definitely consider spending a few bucks here as a gamble on a potential two dozen steals.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marcus Giles		213	49	.230	8	23	1	27	2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		11		13
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	1		1		11		18

Giles experienced one of the worst seasons of any player baseball as after he posted an .835 OPS in April, he began slumping in May, spent more than a month on the DL with a severely sprained his right ankle, and lost his starting job. Unfortunately, his first child was also born very prematurely in early June, and she died only about a week after her birth. Giles obviously lacked focus for much of the rest of the season, so I'm almost surprised he still posted numbers roughly similar to his 2001 stats. He even demonstrated more power potential in 2002, and as he again posted solid numbers in about a month at AAA Richmond, Giles remains quite deserving of a regular starting job. Assuming the Braves either deal him or start him, he should be a bargain at anything under double digits.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Ortiz		192	48	.250	1	12	2	22	2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		13		20
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	0		0		14		20

He spent much of June, July, and August either on the DL or in the minors, and after Ortiz failed to win back his starting job in September, Colorado sold him to a Japanese team in November. Ortiz demonstrated little plate discipline, and while he showed some power, he didn't even approach the numbers he posted in 2001. We don't expect him back in the majors for probably the next two years, so there's no reason to consider drafting him at any point in the foreseeable future.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wilton Guerrero		140	31	.221	0	5	7	12	2
CIN/MON		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		0		7		R
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	0		0		7		1

Guerrero's one of the worst hitters in baseball, but he still somehow posted a .315 OPS against lefties this year. Of course, he also only compiled a .596 against right-handers, so he's a disaster at the plate against all pitchers. His only roto value derives from his rather consistent SB production, as he's managed between 5 and 8 steals in each of the last six seasons. With no patience, power, or plate discipline, there's really no reason to own him unless you're desperate for speed, and I'd still try to find alternative sources assuming Guerrero even finds a major league job in 2003.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Thurston		13	6	.462	0	1	0	1	2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-1		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Los Angeles Prospects for my comments on Thurston.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pablo Ozuna		47	13	.277	0	3	1	4	2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		-1				R

Ozuna continued to produce decent, albeit not overly impressive, minor league numbers, including a .326/.371/.475 with 7 HR, 33 RBI, 37 R, 16/29 SB%, and a 17:37 BB:K in 261 at-bats at AAA Calgary. However, even with the trade to Colorado, Ozuna doesn't seem likely to start since he hits terribly against lefties and has shown neither patience nor power in the majors. The only reason to bid on Ozuna is to gamble on his speed, but since speed is less important in Coors than in any other stadium, we can't expect him to steal more than maybe about a dozen bases assuming he even sees around 200 at-bats. While he's a better target than someone like Wilton Guerrero, Ozuna should rank fairly low on your draft list.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julius Matos		185	44	.238	2	19	1	19	2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		0

Matos has never displayed much power or plate discipline in the minors, and his .312/.345/.468 line at AAA Portland this year is easily the best of his career. He lacks speed, power potential, and patience, so even if he returns to the majors in the future, he's not a good choice for fantasy teams.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marco Scutaro		36	8	.222	1	6	0	2	2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York(N) Prospects for my comments on Scutaro.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Henry Mateo		23	4	.174	0	0	2	1	2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1

Mateo stole 95 bases between 2000 and 2001, but he neither demonstrated great baserunning instincts nor sufficient plate discipline to merit a starting job. Montreal used him as a utilityman at AAA most of this year, and his .256/.306/.386 suggests he needs more development time. You'll be tempted to roster him due to his SB upside, but unless you know he's starting and you can afford a BA hit, I wouldn't bother acquiring him until he starts registering better skills.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Pelaez		8	2	.250	0	0	0	0	2/3/1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of San Diego Prospects for my comments on Pelaez.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Reboulet		48	10	.208	0	2	0	3	2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-3
2002 Age: 38	5x5:	-3		-2		-2

Reboulet missed a month and a half with back stiffness and barely played even when he was healthy. He's holding a .581 OPS against right-handers over the last three years, and few teams need a pinch hitter to use exclusively against lefties. While he continues to show good patience and a little power potential, I'll be surprised if he even finds another hundred at-bats in the majors. Look elsewhere to fill your MIF slot.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Cintron		75	16	.213	0	4	0	11	2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-2

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Arizona Prospects for my comments on Cintron.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jesse Garcia		61	12	.197	0	5	0	6	2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-2

Garcia owns a career .179/.207/.213 line in 112 at-bats over the last four years, and since his .300/.349/.439 at AAA Richmond doesn't suggest any notable upside, I'd definitely avoid him in the future. He's demonstrated little patience, power, or speed, making him effectively useless to fantasy teams.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marty Malloy		25	3	.120	0	1	0	1	2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-2		-1

Florida gave Malloy only his second look in the majors this year, but he's demonstrated good plate discipline in the minors, along with some speed and power, for most of the last decade. He's earned an extended shot in a normal utility infield role, although I wouldn't roster him until he starts posting decent stats in the majors.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Keith Lockhart		296	64	.216	5	32	0	34	2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-2
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	-2		-1		-2

Bobby Cox's insistence on starting Lockhart and Julio Franco in the playoffs over far superior players may have cost the Braves a World Series since they could have beaten the Giants with only slightly better production, and a team with a great bullpen like the Braves might have triumphed over Anaheim. Although Lockhart demonstrates marginal patience at the plate and some power potential, his formerly solid contact rate evaporated to a .83 this year, rendering him essentially useless to fantasy teams. Don't roster him in the future unless his BB:K is close to 1.00.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ron Belliard		289	61	.211	3	26	2	30	2/3
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3		9		3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-2		10		5

Few players disappointed me in 2002 as much as Belliard, however neither Davey Lopes nor Jerry Royster ever gave Belliard a chance to prove himself as a starting third baseman with developing power. So thanks to his inconsistent playing time, Belliard finished the season as the worst NL middle infielder for fantasy teams. His #P/PA has fallen to 3.56 and has now dropped every year of his career, and his walk rate is at .06 only two seasons after a .14. Most disturbingly, we expected a power surge due to a drop in his G-F ratio from 1.61 in 2000 to 1.29 in 2001, and instead Belliard posted a 1.69 G-F, the worst mark since his debut in 1998. Without any speed or power potential, there's no reason to roster Belliard unless he somehow rediscovers his formerly solid plate discipline, leaving him effectively undraftable next spring even in the deepest of leagues.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you can't find a starting middle infielder to fill your MIF slot in the draft, then look for a backup with solid speed upside. We almost always prefer to own players with the chance to boost our team at least in one category rather than someone who won't play enough to hurt us, making even a Wilton Guerrero a decent $1 buy as long as you possess enough BA to compensate for his qualitative failures.