Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Second Basemen with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pokey Reese		421	111	.264	4	50	12	46	2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		7		12		10
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	9		7		12		13

A strained hamstring in mid-April forced him to the DL and contributed to a .323 May OPS; however he also posted between .720 and .793 in each of the other five months, demonstrating somewhat surprising consistency from a historical non-contributor on offense. He managed less than 25 steals for the first time since 1998 because of his hamstring problems, but Reese's 92% SB success rate indicates he's still a good baserunner. Reese posted a solid .10 walk rate and 4.02 #P/PA, each the second best mark of his career, and while a career-worst 1.16 G-F demonstrates somewhat reduced power potential, he saw a BA jump that to some extent appears due to taking advantage of his speed. I recognize this goes against most established sabermetric doctrine, but Reese looks primed for a strong rebound in 2003, and he might even contribute positively to the Pirates. He could approach $20, thanks mostly to his speed, and I'd be happy to grab him for around half that much.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Grudzielanek		536	145	.271	9	50	4	56	2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		7		8		7
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	9		7		9		5

His trade to the Cubs might boost his value slightly as he'll leave the best pitchers' park in baseball, but I can't envision Grudzielanek finding much more than 400 at-bats while competing for playing time against Alex S. Gonzalez, Bobby Hill, Mark Bellhorn, and possibly another third baseman. With a .655 OPS against right-handers and barely a .700 against lefties, there's little reason for Grudz to play most of the time, and he should never hit in the top half of the order. His walk rate is down to .04, his contact rate has fallen to .83, and his #P/PA is at 3.28, each continuing a rather steep two-season drop. The only upside here is a career-best 1.39 G-F, suggesting developing power, but without much speed or any indication of a BA jump, Grudzielanek is a poor buy at anything above a couple bucks.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marlon Anderson		539	139	.258	8	48	5	64	2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	6		5		11		11
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	8		6		11		13

The main question here is where will the Phillies trade Anderson, since I definitely don't expect them to keep him as a backup when they want Placido Polanco starting. Colorado, Kansas City, and San Francisco seem like the most likely possibilities, and while there's some development in his skills, even the favorable environments of Coors and Kauffman won't dramatically boost his value. A 3.41 #P/PA demonstrates little patience even though we see mild improvement to a .08 walk rate and .87 contact rate; Anderson's improved G-F also suggests he could reach 15 homers, but he still seemed to regress in many areas in 2002. Assuming he's starting in 2003, I'm comfortable bidding in the high single digits, although even going $10 seems far too Pollyannaish.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark DeRosa		212	63	.297	5	23	2	24	2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		4		2		R
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	5		4		2

DeRosa missed two months with ligament damage in his right ankle, costing him the chance to establish himself as the clear starter at second for Atlanta. Over the last three years, he's posted a .941 OPS against southpaws while failing to even reach a .700 OPS against right-handers, so while we agree he should start about fifty games a year, playing him much more than that creates another hole in the Braves' lineup. Unfortunately, while his platoon split offers some intriguing possibilities for Atlanta, DeRosa's a poor fantasy option since he possesses little speed or power, and his almost complete lack of patience at the plate casts doubt upon his ability to maintain a good BA.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brent Butler		344	89	.259	9	42	2	55	2/3
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4				1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	6		5				4

Butler's held an OPS around .825 over the last three seasons at AAA Colorado Springs, but his plate discipline has deteriorated since he compiled a 44:46 BB:K in 428 at-bats in 2000. He posted an abhorrent 2.96 #P/PA in Colorado this year, and pitchers took advantage of his ridiculous impatience, holding him to a .610 OPS in the second half after Butler managed an .868 OPS in 119 at-bats before the break. A 1.09 G-F indicates he easily would reach double-digit homers given a regular starting job, however his .03 walk rate demonstrates fairly clearly he doesn't deserve that chance. Coors gives him decent fantasy upside, but I'd stop bidding at a only a couple of dollars.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
D'Angelo Jimenez		429	108	.252	4	44	6	61	2/3
SD/CHW		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	4		3		13		10
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	6		4		14		10

One of the primary failings of the sabermetrically-inclined general managers, including Billy Beane, J.P. Ricciardi, and Kevin Towers, is a surprising willingness to quickly give up on players with relatively solid statistical histories if they don't contribute almost immediately. San Diego showed little interest in helping Jimenez develop into a solid major leaguer, and now Chicago will benefit from the Padres' impatience. Jimenez's minor league skills remain more impressive than those of Alfonso Soriano, and after the White Sox stole Jimenez in a mid-season trade, he posted a .280/.372/.478 with a 24:14 BB:K in 157 at-bats at AAA Charlotte. While in the majors this year, he saw 4.11 #P/PA, and after his promotion to Comiskey, Jimenez managed a .15 walk rate and .91 contact rate, both indicative of a bright future as a leadoff man. I don't see much power potential here at the moment, but he'll only turn 25 later this month, and given his decent speed in the minors and impressive plate discipline, Jimenez should be an excellent roto sleeper in 2003.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bobby Hill		190	48	.253	4	20	6	26	2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		2				3
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	3		2				6

Hill's .182/.294/.284 in his first call-up looks nothing like the .314/.358/.451 he posted after the break. Unfortunately he demonstrated an awful platoon split, managing a .327/.426/.404 against southpaws but only a .225/.287/.362 against right-handers; considering that Grudzielanek, Hill's new "competition" at second, demonstrated a similar split, a platoon makes little sense. Some of Hill's skills are fairly decent, including a .09 walk rate and 3.78 #P/PA, but a .78 contact rate is rather unacceptable. There's a lot of upside here, particularly with his speed, but we can't expect him to reach a value much higher than the very low double digits due to his likely BA troubles. While his AAA numbers definitely indicate he's ready for the majors, I don't believe Hill will emerge as a roto stud for another couple of years.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Terry Shumpert		234	55	.235	6	21	4	30	2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		6		5
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	1		1		5		3

Shumpert seems likely to leave the Rockies after four seasons as their primary utilityman. As he's now 36, posted a .577 OPS against righties and a .498 away from Coors, and slipped to a .619 OPS after the break, Shumpert seems primed for a year or two of AAAA duty before he retires. His skills weren't too bad, but with his power potential essentially gone and a sharply reduced SB count, there's no reason to roster him in any park other than Coors.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tomas Perez		212	53	.250	5	20	1	22	2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	1		1		-1

Perez posted a .10 walk rate, a 3.89 #P/PA, and a 1.05 G-F, all essentially career-best marks, so while we can't expect much in the way of quantitative support from him, he's a decent backup for the Phillies and won't hurt you as a Dollar Days' pick. He shouldn't see much playing time since Philadelphia likely will start Chase Utley and/or Nick Punto before giving Perez a larger role, but expect about another 200 at-bats from Perez with similar numbers to 2002. However, you probably should only use him as occasional roster filler due to his limited upside.

Today's Fantasy Rx: After the top dozen or so second baseman, the list falls off rather precariously. If everyone in the league only took one of the good starters, you should be able to roster a decent player for only a few bucks. However we continually see a few teams in every league target two starting second baseman so that they fill their MIF position with a double-digit performer, so you should probably try to buy the first of your targets available at a reasonable price for fear of getting stuck with Grudzielanek or DeRosa.