Today's Fantasy Rx

On our last day of discussing September trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, see their ERA rise by at least 1.50 from August to September. I only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in both months over the past five years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from their placement on last month's Hot Dogs of August list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Ron Villone, P, PIT; +2.41 ERA. August: deal or cut; September: deal or cut.

Paul Quantrill, P, LA; +1.74. August: deal; September: wait.

Steve Parris, P, TOR; +1.71. August: wait; September: deal or cut.

Alan Embree, P, BOS; +1.65. August: acquire; September: acquire.

Buddy Groom, P, BAL: +3.87 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	0/60	50.2	47/4	39:14	4-0/1	3.20
Sept	0/63	46	66/4	38:15	0-1/0	6.07

02Aug 0/13	11.2	14/0	8:1	1-0/1	0.00

As Groom's already allowed a homer this month, he seems quite likely to follow his normal pattern and post an ERA around 4.00. Baltimore also faces a very tough schedule, as after three games against Anaheim this weekend, they finish the year with Boston, Toronto, and the Yankees. With Julio still pitching relatively solid and Stephens, Jason Johnson, and Rod Lopez continuing to pitch effectively, Groom probably won't see many opportunities for vultured wins or saves. You can certainly wait if you own him, but I wouldn't look to add him to most teams.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa, P, SEA: +3.04 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	0/50	70.2	58/4	41:23	4-4/6	2.17
Sept	0/48	76	81/9	62:25	8-7/5	5.21

02Aug 0/10	13.2	19/3	5:8	0-0/0	8.56

While Hasegawa is far more likely to improve his ERA by 3.04 this month than to continue self-destructing, his terrible August skill ratios should keep him off nearly every fantasy team. The Mariners play a moderately tough schedule against three solid offenses in the AL West, so Hasegawa's ERA could remain high even if he only allows a couple of homers while otherwise shutting down hitters. Deal or cut Hasegawa to avoid damaging qualitative numbers.

Octavio Dotel, P, HOU: +2.99 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	5/27	57.1	36/7	76:23	3-0/8	3.14
Sept	3/32	47	46/8	62:37	5-5/6	6.13

02Aug 0/15	18	7/0	21:2	0-0/2	0.50

Dotel generally loses much of his control in September, allowing more walks along with worse hit and homer rates. The Astros play St. Louis seven times this month, but then only face LA, Colorado, and two series against Milwaukee before finishing the year in San Francisco. We expect their relatively consistent starting pitching to carry Houston at least to the edge of the playoffs, and that final three-game series easily could decide the Wild Card. Dotel should continue to grab a couple of wins and saves, and I don't believe the expected qualitative statistical problems will negate his quantitative value, making him a safe pitcher on which to wait through the end of the season.

Rick Helling, P, ARI: +2.38 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S   ERA
Aug	26/30	177.1	166/30	142:63	11-5/0  3.96
Sept	28/28	163.1	180/30	125:66	12-12/0 6.34

02Aug 5/5	35	30/3	28:7	1-1/0	1.54

I'm not amused that Helling decided to tank Monday's start after we purchased him as an ultra-low percentage play in CDM Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball; even watching Mark Grace attempting to pitch doesn't compensate for Helling's meltdown, but at least that game only uses points from positive pitching events. Prior to the worst loss in Diamondbacks history, Helling compiled an excellent 45544 five-start PQS log. Even if he manages to hold a 4.00 ERA over his last four starts while averaging seven innings a start, he'll still finish with a 5.53 ERA for the month, almost insuring that he'll continue his normal September trend. Now that he's hopefully past his difficult start, although you should avoid a likely Coors' appearance, look to acquire him where available.

Albie Lopez, P, ATL: +2.22 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	12/33	116.1	95/12	79:32	6-6/1	3.02
Sept	12/44	110	125/17	87:43	4-11/1	5.24

02Aug 0/6	8	9/0	4:1	0-0/0	3.38

After an early April injury allowed Damian Moss to steal his rotation spot, the continued health of the other Braves' starters prevented Lopez from returning to the rotation. Atlanta left him in the bullpen all year, essentially wasting his season as he pitches about once a week, averaging just over an inning each relief appearance, which is not an acceptable workload for a former starter. While he pitched relatively good in August, he's just as likely to struggle in September given his irregular schedule, leaving him as someone you should deal or cut considering the number of available pitchers with greater upside.

Mike Williams, P, PIT: +1.99 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	0/53	54	51/6	60:29	5-4/9	3.67
Sept	0/45	41.1	34/5	40:30	4-2/8	5.66

02Aug 0/10	9.2	15/0	6:4	1-3/6	6.52

Williams seems to struggle at the end of every season, but an easy September schedule of Florida, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia before concluding against the Mets and the Cubs should allow him to finish strong, even though some of those teams are gaining momentum towards 2003. I don't completely trust his qualitative numbers, but as he's saved at least seven games each month this year, I expect him to snag another half-dozen saves by the end of the season. Especially if someone's looking to dump him given his terrible August and normal slump, remain ready to acquire him if presented with an opportunity.

Jimmy Haynes, P, CIN: +1.93 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	25/27	139	163/15	97:66	8-10/0	5.63
Sept	18/22	102.1	139/15	81:60	3-10/0	7.56

02Aug 6/6	33.2	38/3	19:13	2-2/0	4.28

Cincinnati's investments in Elmer Dessens, Brian Moehler, Ryan Dempster, and Shawn Estes leave Haynes fighting for starts with Chris Reitsma, Joey Hamilton, Jared Fernandez, and maybe even Jose Rijo and Danny Graves. As 13 wins and a 4.12 ERA are both career-highs, I suspect Haynes will remain a regular rotation member as Cincy continues its vain struggle for a playoff berth. While they don't face any impressive opponents through the end of the season, I don't expect Haynes to manage more than two wins and an ERA below the league average, so only wait if you can afford potential qualitative damage.

Steve Karsay, P, NYY: +1.88 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	5/42	69	72/6	52:28	5-6/4	3.78
Sept	0/39	41.1	50/4	30:14	3-5/1	5.66

02Aug 0/14	15.2	7/1	11:5	0-0/4	0.57

Rivera's extended DL stint has left Karsay closing, and he looks fully prepared for the job as always. He's already given up two earned runs this month, so as he'll likely give up another one or two in about a dozen innings, he should finish with an ERA around 3.00. Consequently while he'll match his normal September "slump", the difference from his great August won't be sufficient to diminish his value. Acquire the Yankees' closer wherever available.

Paul Byrd, P, KC: +1.83 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Aug	13/15	88	94/13	52:21	7-6/0	3.89
Sept	14/16	74	80/14	57:36	5-6/0	5.72

02Aug 6/6	44	46/7	27:7	1-3/0	3.27

Holding out for a top second base prospect instead of taking someone like Antonio Perez for Byrd ranks with the dumbest moves of the year, and the recent public sniping between the Royals and Byrd practically insures his departure. Next season he'll likely sign with a team more in need of a #3 or #4 starter like Boston than another Kansas City which needs a #1 and #2. His recent problems will leave him under twenty wins barring another shockingly excellent month, and his current 5-start PQS log of 24420 is probably a better indication of his September potential as he's no longer striving towards a personal milestone. You can wait as he'll hopefully finish relatively strongly to improve his bargaining position in free agency, but I doubt he'll add much to most teams other than the one win he needs to set a new career-best in that category.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally rise between 1.50 and 1.75 points in August include Andy Pettitte(+1.57 ERA) and Todd Jones(+1.53).

Normally declining pitchers who weren't in the majors during most or all of August include Dan Reichert(+2.97 ERA), Armando Reynoso(+2.48), Anthony Telford(+2.28), Scott Elarton(+2.23), Kevin Jarvis(+2.01), Chris Holt(+1.97), Darren Oliver(+1.94), Jesus Sanchez(+1.91), Mike Thuman(+1.63), Chris Peters(+1.62), and Mac Suzuki(+1.60).

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez(?): Sun:TOR(Loiaza)
Mike Mussina: Sat:DET(B.Powell)
Roger Clemens: Sun:DET(A.Van Hekken)
Barry Zito: Sun:@MIN(Milton)
Kerry Wood: Sun:@STL(Simontacchi)
Roy Oswalt: Sun:@LA(Ishii)
Eric Gagne: 3 Home games vs. Houston.
Roy Halladay: Fri:@BOS(Wakefield)

No starts: Randy, Schilling, Morris, and Vazquez.

Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Road games at San Francisco.
Mike Williams: 3 Home games vs. Florida.
Eddie Guardado: 3 Home games vs. Oakland.
Jorge Julio: 3 Home games vs. Anaheim.
Scott Stewart: 3 Road games at Atlanta.

Stewart's injury makes him the logical bench choice among relievers, and Pedro's uncertainty also forces us to sit him. We're going to bench Halladay given his recent struggles and Wakefield's hot streak.

While we'd love to bench Ward and Dunn in favor of Drew and Pierre, we're not willing to run either Halladay or a useless Stewart instead of an otherwise productive pitcher who can provide us needed help in four categories. The difference isn't worth the addition of a little power or insuring our BA and speed. We'll keep Ichiro benched, and we're not prepared to deploy Sosa over Vlad or Bonds. All four Rockies will also sit as only Helton's hitting for average and playing every day, and without showing much power potential, he's not overly helpful to us. Colorado might play great this weekend at home against San Diego, but we're not willing to take the chance when our alternate outfielders remain very hot.

The Umpire Hunter(2nd lg; 22nd overall)
Week 23b: September 6-September 8

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1120
OF	Barry Bonds		1830
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Torii Hunter		830
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Vlad Guerrero		1880
DH	Jimmy Rollins		940

SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Roger Clemens		1240
SP	Barry Zito		1080
SP	Kerry Wood		1050
SP	Roy Oswalt		830
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: The NFL season begins tonight with the two-hour NFL Countdown show on ESPN before 49ers@Giants opens the season. With neither Oakland nor the Cubs playing today, we might skip a night of baseball before tomorrow evening's flipfest. At 7pm Central on Friday, WGN shows the Cubs@Cardinals Benes v Benes showdown opposite Fox Sports North Oakland@Minnesota, featuring the return of the Homer Hanky and the Athletics' attempt to tie the all-time Major League record for wins in consecutive games.