Today's Fantasy Rx

On our third day of discussing August trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, improve their ERA by at least 1.50 from July to August. I only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in both months over the past five years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from their placement on last month's Squashed JulyFlys list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Dan Reichert, P, KC; -5.43 ERA. July: deal; August: deal or cut.

Mark Guthrie, RP, NYM; -3.28 ERA. July: wait; August: acquire.

Steve Karsay, RP, NYY;-2.88 ERA. July: deal; August: deal or cut.

Brian Moehler, SP, CIN; -2.22 ERA. July: deal; August: wait.

Anthony Telford, RP, TEX: -1.73 ERA. July: deal or cut; August: deal or cut.

Ron Villone, P, PIT: -3.74 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	8/41	79.1	100/12	53:38	6-5/0	6.58
August	7/33	85.2	74/7	62:30	5-1/0	2.84

02July 0/11	14.1	16/1	6:6	0-0/0	8.16

Villone's appeared in three of the four monthly trends columns thus far, and he'll also be back in September as his ERA normally heads back up. He may not be the most inconsistent pitcher in the game today, but he certainly deserves mention in that discussion. Of course he didn't actually improve this August, and if the Pirates have exhausted all trade possibilities, they should release him immediately. I suggest you also deal or cut him if he's still on your roster.

Derek Lowe, SP, BOS: -3.15 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	2/53	74	89/6	62:19	4-4/17	5.35
August	0/49	65.1	63/1	56:15	7-2/17	2.20

02July 5/5	33.2	24/1	17:9	3-1/0	2.41

I don't really expect a sharp increase in value from the best pitcher in the majors this season, especially when he's at high risk for burnout due to the increased number of innings he's pitched. With his strikeout rate falling and Boston's defense showing some holes, he should slip at least a little in August. As his perceived value also likely remains extremely high in every league, explore a deal if you can fix several other problems in your team.

Tom Gordon, RP, CHC: -2.16 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	6/27	62.1	57/4	57:26	1-4/14	4.33
August	3/32	49.2	35/2	50:18	2-1/17	2.17

02July 0/11	12	20/0	18:8	0-1/0	5.25

Most of Gordon's skills appear quite solid and his 1.46 G-F is closer to his pre-injury days with the Red Sox. However opposing teams seem to hit him hard in every outing, and even the Cubs' problems on defense can't account for all of his increased hit rate. While he could move to a closer-needy team in the very near future, the best choice is to either deal or cut Gordon unless you can weather ERA/WHIP damage for any potential saves.

Steve Parris, SP, TOR: -2.11 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	19/19	115.2	119/22	73:34	5-5/0	4.51
August	11/11	75	75/3	45:20	7-2/0	2.40

02July 6/6	34.2	38/1	22:16	4-1/0	4.15

Although Parris has maintained relatively good PQS scores since returning from injury, he's walking over a batter per game more than he did in previous Julys. The lower homer rate is a good sign, but his .91 G-F is the worst mark of his career, and suggests he won't maintain his current rate. While you can probably at least wait to see if he winds up on a contender, reserve him if possible against tougher offenses.

Paul Quantrill, RP, LA: -1.99 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/64	63.1	90/6	37:24	5-6/2	4.41
August	0/65	70.2	78/4	41:16	5-2/3	2.42

02July 0/14	13	15/3	7:6	2-1/0	2.08

He's remained a very solid and efficient member of the Dodgers' pen, but both his dominance and command faded badly in July. With Shuey around as the primary set-up man for Gagne, I also don't expect Quantrill to see any save opportunities. Despite his impressive history this month, you should probably try to deal Quantrill since he's both easily replaceable and skill-deficient at the moment.

Brian Boehringer, RP, SF: -1.80 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	4/23	49.1	46/8	28:21	1-4/0	4.93
August	4/22	46	52/3	29:16	0-3/0	3.13

02July 0/10	12.2	12/2	15:8	2-1/1	7.11

Boehringer should easily improve on last month's convenient ERA, especially as his skills remained rather solid even as he allowed an unusually high number of baserunners. He's likely first in line for Pirates' save opps if Mike Williams leaves, and his .71 G-F, while objectively fairly poor, is rather close to his .85 career mark. We see little reason to bail on Boehringer now, and you might even look to acquire him if you need ERA/WHIP help.

Juan Acevedo, RP, DET: -1.75 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	6/40	75.1	82/12	44:30	4-3/0	4.66
August	0/47	58.2	61/7	32:26	5-5/4	2.91

02July 0/12	11.1	15/3	6:3	0-1/6	3.97

One of our biggest mistakes this year was to discount Acevedo's promotion to closer as a temporary situation. He'd closed in the past, owned great skills this season, and played in one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball. He lacks the dominance to ever establish himself as a star closer, but he might have begun an Alfonseca-like run of a few years with a couple dozen saves each year with passable peripheral numbers. After mild struggles in July, he looks prepared to follow his normal pattern to post some very helpful qualitative stats this month, making him someone to acquire if you need a reliever.

James Baldwin, SP, SEA: -1.74 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	26/26	155	166/26	107:50	11-9/0	5.52
August	27/28	176.1	168/18	127:65	16-6/0	3.78

02July 5/5	32	35/4	18:5	1-1/0	4.22

Everyone knows Baldwin as one of the prototypical "second half pitchers", but he's really just an August pitcher; he usually posts an August ERA 1.18 less than his next best mark in May, and he's over 5.00 in each of the other four months of the season. Seattle will depend on Baldwin's success after they didn't acquire a more established #3 starter before the deadline, and while he performed terribly in his first August start, there's no reason to think he shouldn't excel for the rest of the month. Acquire Baldwin for the stretch run if you have the opportunity.

Alan Embree, RP, BOS: -1.61 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/45	41	37/4	42:18	4-2/1	4.39
August	0/61	51.2	40/3	30:14	3-0/0	2.79

02July 0/8	8	7/2	8:1	0-1/2	4.50

He missed the second half of July with inflammation in his left elbow, but he's pitched reasonably well since his return and we don't expect him to encounter further difficulties. Embree's compiling some very impressive numbers this year, and he might even find a few more save opps by October. If he's somehow available in your league, certainly try to acquire him for good qualitative numbers and perhaps some quantitative help as well.

Keith Foulke, RP, CHW: -1.60 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	4/51	73.2	70/7	67:23	4-5/12	4.03
August	0/57	74.1	50/6	68:17	4-4/21	2.42

02July 0/12	13.1	14/1	10:2	0-0/0	4.05

Aside from the lack of saves, his stats this July look extremely similar to his ratios from past seasons. Current Chicago rumors suggest he'll return to his closing job within the next week or two, and I fully expect him to dominate for the last two months. While I've remained high on his upside throughout this disappointing season, look to acquire Foulke before he resumes racking saves and his value heads upwards.

Normally improving pitchers not currently in the majors include Frank Rodriguez(-3.14 ERA), Kevin Jarvis(-2.27), Armando Reynoso(-2.27), Omar Olivares(-2.15), Brian Bohanon(-1.88), Shane Reynolds(-1.87), Dan Miceli(-1.75), John Frascatore(-1.74), and Mariano Rivera(-1.53).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Bonds goes for his 600th homer tonight at 9PM(CDT) against the Cubs. We strongly recommend you try to watch this potential historical moment as no player has reached 600 homers since Hank Aaron in 1971. If you can't watch the entire game, I suspect ESPN will show Bonds' at-bats live on ESPNews.