Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our second day of examination of September trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past five years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from August to September. I only looked at players who compiled 100 AB in both June and July over the past five years.

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers with an OPS decline of .170 or more before I list the remaining qualified players.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from their placement on last month's Hot Dogs of August list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Joe Girardi, C, CHC; -.086 BA/-.255 OPS. August: acquire; September: deal or cut.

Mike Mordecai, IF, FLO; -.083/-.187. August: wait; September: wait.

Kenny Lofton, OF, SF; -.057/-.172. August: acquire; September: wait.

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA; -.080/-.130. August: acquire; September: wait.

Jeff Kent, 2B, SF; -.051/-.103. August: wait; September: wait.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, PIT: -.075 BA; -.303 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	199	11:34	.317/.359/.573
Sept	219	12:49	.242/.282/.347

02Aug	104	8:10	.298/.370/.500

Ramirez's season should be a good case study for players attempting to play through injury. He injured his ankle while charging the mound on April 17th, and after posting a .348/.407/.500 average line in April, slumped to his current .239/.288/.381. The only positive is the power potential suggested by a career-best .83 G-F. As his August seemed on target with his historical trends, we can expect him to produce inconsistently at best. Deal or reserve him unless you're completely desperate for power.

Brian Daubach, 1B/DH, BOS: -.077 BA; -.251 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	224	23:43	.281/.353/.545
Sept	221	23:72	.204/.280/.367

02Aug	79	3:21	.203/.247/.367

He won't repeat his normal pattern as both his skills and stats can't fall far below his August levels. His overall power potential remains solid but he sorely needs consistency; his monthly OPS peaked at .971 in April before bouncing to .956 in May, .529 in June, .945 in July, and a .614 in August. At least the removal of Offerman and continued benching of Tony Clark leave Daubach with a regular job, so hopefully he can rebound over the last month, especially as his production in one month appears to bear little relation to those that follow. Wait on Daubach as he might surprise with some helpful quantitative support..

Greg Colbrunn, CR, ARI: -.080 BA; -.235 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	180	14:23	.361/.418/.606
Sept	228	19:34	.281/.337/.452

02Aug	27	0:3	.333/.333/.926

After missing the last two weeks of July with a strained right calf, by the time Colbrunn returned, Durazo even had begun starting against lefties. Colbrunn should receive another two-dozen at-bats this month as he's averaged most of this year, and we can likely expect a .300 BA and .800+ OPS even with a potential slump. He offers similar stats to someone like Damon Minor, albeit with far less upside. If you've stuck with him until now, wait for his last month of production.

Cristian Guzman, SS, MIN: -.088 BA; -.232 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	231	16:47	.286/.333/.398
Sept	263	7:49	.198/.221/.278

02Aug	114	2:14	.333/.339/.430

During a mostly dreadful season in which he's seemingly relinquished all his skill gains from last year, Guzman's lost his already limited plate discipline and great speed while watching his G-F ratio rise from 1.65 to 2.15 G-F. He's holding a career-worst 3.17 #P/PA, and those 13 CS in 24 SB attempts sharply reduce his roto upside. With his August stats from 2002 slightly better than normal despite worse skills, a repeat of his normal September slump won't surprise. Explore a deal to a team desperate for speed.

Mike Redmond, C, FLO: -.071 BA; -.209 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG4
Aug	140	15:10	.314/.388/.407
Sept	111	9:14	.243/.298/.288

02Aug	62	3:6	.306/.328/.387

A 2.09 G-F, .41 above his next worst year, shows he's clearly lost any power potential he'd ever possessed. Redmond's surprisingly holding the best OBP of his career at .386, although nothing in his skills generally supports this improvement. Hopefully the Marlins will take a long look at Ramon Castro to determine his future value to the team, further limiting Redmond's upside. Deal or reserve Redmond unless you need the minute BA boost.

Troy O'Leary, OF, MON: -.051 BA; -.188 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	470	45:80	.296/.359/506
Sept	424	33:69	.245/.297/.380

02Aug	81	10:13	.284/.370/.358

The disappearance of his power is troubling but the solid OBP looks reasonable when compared to his skills. Cliff Floyd's departure again opened up a full-time job for O'Leary, and while the Expos might take another look at someone like Endy Chavez, O'Leary certainly shouldn't hurt you this month. Unfortunately a 1.26 G-F indicates less power potential for him than in any season since 1997, and he's unlikely to provide a BA much above the league average. Deal or cut him since I just don't see more than a buck or two of upside.

Todd Pratt, C, PHI: -.081 BA; -.183 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	146	22:32	.281/.379/.384
Sept	130	19:43	.200/.311/.269

02Aug	14	6:6	.143/.429/.429

While the Phillies are likely to rest Lieberthal semi-frequently to protect their new investment, Johnny Estrada will receive nearly all the extra playing time as they try to increase his trade value. Pratt hasn't received more than twenty at-bats in any month this year, so we can't expect any qualitative help and even if he manages a healthy BA, the small at-bat total means he'll only affect the tightest of BA races. Deal or cut Pratt in favor of someone with more upside, especially as almost every team will have a third catcher available and many even could be decent keepers.

Brad Fullmer, DH, ANA: -.066 BA; -.180 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	381	31:45	.307/.363/.517
Sept	319	21:36	.241/.289/.411

02Aug	78	7:5	.282/.371/.551

Unlike past seasons, his developed plate discipline will guard against a severe BA drop, and as his .65 G-F is his third straight year of improving power potential, he could compensate for his normally diminishing power. Fullmer's problem remains a severe platoon split, as while his .910 OPS against righties remains excellent, a .520 OPS against LHP is disastrous, essentially wasting 55 at-bats for the Angels. You can probably safely wait with Fullmer as we still like his overall production upside, but try to reserve him in any series where he might face one or two lefties, as both his at-bats and the resulting statistics likely won't help you.

Alex S. Gonzalez, SS, CHC: -.089 BA; -.177 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	357	23:71	.297/.351/.448
Sept	336	35:91	.208/.283/.339

02Aug	106	11:19	.283/.350/.434

The Cubs keep insisting that Gonzalez is a vital part of next year's team despite an unacceptable .735 OPS and the availability of both Bellhorn and Bobby Hill to play shortstop. Only a career-best 1.16 G-F seems overly superior to his normal skill rates, and Gonzalez's diminished speed further reduces his value. Since his August averages this year seem nicely in line with his historical performance, I expect he'll struggle to the end of the season as usual, making him someone you should deal or reserve if you can find any decent alternative.

Players that qualified but lost less than .175 OPS include Marty Cordova(-.080 BA/-.168 OPS), Edgardo Alfonzo(-.072/-.168), Vinny Castilla(-.056/-.166), Keith Osik(-.059/-.165), Albert Pujols(-.064/-.161), John Valentin(-.079/-.149), Alex Cora(-.087/-.138), Todd Helton(-.082/-.121), Jose Vidro(-.054/-.121), Fernando Vina(-.067/-.120), and Jose Valentin(-.054/-.111).

A few players qualified but weren't in the majors during most or all of August, including Luis Sojo(-.097 BA/-.278 OPS), Rob Ducey(-.060/-.272), Frank Catalanotto(-.083/-.223), Mark Sweeney(-.058/-.213), Donnie Sadler(-.051/-.210), Wiki Gonzalez(-.125/-.206), Rusty Greer(-.062/-.195), Todd Greene(-.088/-.194), Cal Ripken(-.082/-.175), Glenallen Hill(-.053/-.175), Carlos Delgado(-.053/-.173), Dave Magadan(-.077/-.143), Lou Collier(-.062/-.137), and Geoff Jenkins(-.060/-.103).

Today's Fantasy Rx: If any Devil Ray minor league pitchers are reading this, or if you know a pitcher in their system, please make sure they cease patronizing chain restaurants when at all possible. Delvin James was shot at a Waffle House early yesterday morning, while Nick Bierbrodt was shot while at a Hardee's drive-through in Charleston, SC back in June. While we recognize that most minor league pitchers live on meager salaries, upgrading from a diet of cereal, toast, and ramen likely isn't worth the potential cost, as the odds against surviving a meal intact decrease for pitchers in the Tampa Bay system.