Today's Fantasy Rx

As in every month, I'll spend the first four days of this week on players with significant statistical changes between last month and this month. To qualify for consideration, a player must have 100 AB in both August and September over the last five years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months.

Over two dozen players also improved by at least that much this month, while almost forty declined by similar amounts. Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and the following two days we'll spend on improving and then declining pitchers.

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers with an OPS improvement of .125 or more before I list the remaining qualified players.

One player qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's Dogs of August list.

Juan Pierre, OF, COL; +.051 BA/+.155 OPS. August: deal; September: wait.

Rafael Furcal, SS, ATL: +.059 BA; +.262 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	117	16:21	.256/.346/.299
Sept	108	21:21	.315/.426/.481

02Aug	120	3:19	.325/.347/.442

Furcal's only managed one month with an OBP over .350 this year and his .398 in June looks based mostly upon an unsupported .343 BA. The only particularly bright sign in his August skills is a great 5/5 SB%, but I'm not sure he'll continue at that pace. Atlanta's huge lead will allow them to rest regulars at their leisure, and considering Furcal's occasional injury problems, I wouldn't expect him to break 100 at-bats. He'll still provide some help with SB and Runs, so you should probably just wait to see how he performs.

Ron Belliard, IF, MIL: +.072 BA; +.250 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	212	23:37	.222/.300/.288
Sept	194	26:27	.294/.374/.464

02Aug	38	1:8	.158/.175/.184

Milwaukee's handling of their infield situation essentially left Tyler Houston, Mark Loretta, and Ron Belliard sharing third base for much of the season. Hopefully the Loretta trade will give Belliard one more month of full-time work to prove himself to the Brewers, although a 1.71 G-F more than reverses his power gains from last season. He desperately needs a new organization and a good batting coach, and even a larger role doesn't enhance his appeal to us. Deal or cut him to avoid potentially serious BA damage.

Alex Ochoa, OF, ANA: +.065 BA; +.239 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	258	25:39	.240/.315/.333
Sept	285	34:38	.305/.375/.512

02Aug	43	7:2	.279/.380/.442

While he won't see regular work this season barring additional injuries on Anaheim, he's running an excellent walk rate even as his 1.68 G-F doesn't indicate much power potential. However the more consistent playing time in the American League at least provides an opportunity for his solid latent skills. We can expect a couple of steals from him along with a good BA and some power, numbers that most teams should seek to acquire if they need outfield help.

Ben Davis, C, SEA: +.052 BA; +.184 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	195	17:53	.185/.250/.267
Sept	186	25:48	.237/.325/.376

02Aug	39	1:13	.308/.317/.744

Seattle's job-sharing arrangement at catcher should keep both backstops fresh through the end of the season, although Davis needs a year or two of full-time action in the near future to determine if he'll ever reach his potential. Despite demonstrating great power in August, his atrocious plate discipline leaves him vulnerable to a quick BA drop. The Mariners might even try to rest both Davis and Dan Wilson when possible, so we can't count on any notable increase in at-bats. Only wait on Davis if you're desperate for power at catcher.

Larry Walker, OF, COL: +.050 BA; +.180 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	401	50:61	.354/.428/.646
Sept	240	53:44	.404/.508/.746

02Aug	78	8:9	.282/.345/.513

He's battling injuries as always, currently facing a sore back and dislocated ribs. Walker always has the potential to break out with simply stunning numbers in a given week, and as Colorado spends over half of the rest of the year at home, at least the stadium odds favor him. You can at minimum count on a decent BA when he's in Coors, although his power for the balance of the seasons seems questionable. Wait as he'll cost too much in trade and isn't worth dumping.

Torii Hunter, OF, MIN: +.051 BA; +.179 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	246	18:52	.276/.325/.407
Sept	254	15:48	.327/.364/.547

02Aug	107	5:19	.224/.259/.327

Hunter's biggest problem is that Minnesota leads the majors in games played and their outfield excess allows them to rest him at their leisure. He barely belongs on any MVP ballot at this point with five Yankees, four Red Sox, three Mariners, two A's, and an Indian comprising our short list at the moment, although he's certainly essential to the Twins' playoff run. I expect Hunter to post his normal power surge and continue to contribute a few steals each month, but his weak plate discipline leaves his BA very uncertain. Wait since his upside increases his worth even though I wouldn't pay market value to add him.

Royce Clayton, SS, CHW: +.055 BA; +.170 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	473	36:85	.268/.320/.381
Sept	427	40:82	.323/.377/.494

02Aug	40	1:6	.350/.381/.450

Clayton's primary negative is also the playing time risk, as he's competing for at-bats directly with Jose Valentin and D'Angelo Jimenez and indirectly with Willie Harris and others. Fortunately his typical post All-Star surge, including a .304/.340/.391 line this year, should give Jerry Manuel some incentive to keep playing him; Clayton's teams just need to learn that he never plays well in the first half. Even a minor injury could open a lineup spot for Clayton, so you should probably wait at this point if you already own him. However you also shouldn't expect any steals, so he only adds a decent BA and some power.

Ramon E. Martinez, IF, SF: +.066 BA; +.166 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	189	9:29	.233/.265/.344
Sept	127	14:12	.299/.366/.409

02Aug	35	2:3	.286/.324/.486

The Giants' need for offensive production to fuel their playoff push will likely keep most of their subs on the bench this month. All Martinez can provide is three dozen at-bats of an acceptable BA with negligible quantitative assistance. We still believe he could prove himself a respectable starter if given the opportunity, but I don't see the necessary opening at the moment. Deal or cut him in favor of someone with more immediate playing time upside.

Mark Kotsay, OF, SD: +.065 BA; +.156 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	350	24:30	.260/.306/.394
Sept	255	21:31	.325/.374/.482

02Aug	87	4:14	.287/.326/.494

As the wait for his breakout season continues he at least hints at some additional power potential with a 1.16 G-F, the second best mark of his career. Unfortunately his plate discipline has deteriorated over the course of the year, and a September spent against fairly strong pitching staffs won't give him much room to improve. The Padres also seem to have ceased running this year completely, so we can't even hope for five or six steals. Since his 2003 starting job is secure, I wouldn't be surprised if San Diego spent more time auditioning Eugene Kingsale, Brian Buchanan, and Bubba Trammell to see who they want starting next to Kotsay. Explore a potential deal involving Kotsay if you can grab someone who can provide help in a specific category.

Shane Halter, UT, DET: +.068 BA; +.148 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	206	9:51	.214/.250/.393
Sept	170	24:29	.282/.367/.424

02Aug	97	12:17	.227/.324/.412

Detroit continues to play Halter despite both dreadful skills and stats. At least his .11 walk rate on the year is fairly impressive considering his normal rates, but even improved power since the All-Star break doesn't indicate he should start. Wait on Halter as he'll continue to contribute some quantitative help and likely won't bring anything in trade.

Tom Goodwin, OF, SF: +.056 BA; +.132 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	394	41:78	.236/.308/.292
Sept	408	42:64	.292/.355/.377

02Aug	48	2:6	.229/.260/.229

Although he won't start regularly, Goodwin will remain a valuable part of many teams due to his pure speed; he'll easily grab another few bags this month even if limited to pinch-running. He hasn't demonstrated much plate discipline and obviously owns no power skills, but as long as you keep your expectations limited, he should definitely fulfill your team needs. Acquire Goodwin if he's available and you can designante an outfield slot for a pure speed guy.

Joe Randa, 3B, KC: +.057 BA; +.125 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
Aug	478	33:78	.257/.307/.381
Sept	475	32:57	.314/.354/.459

02Aug	107	6:10	.299/.336/.393

Randa's rebounded solidly from a weak July, although he still hasn't matched his .800+ OPS pace from before the All-Star game. I don't see sufficient power development in his skills to recommend him, and I'm also mildly concerned that Kansas City might explore alternatives since keeping him in the lineup doesn't provide any tangible long-term benefit. Explore a deal involving Randa, perhaps targeting a team that might need at-bats in exchange for someone with better upside in a more limited role.

Players that qualified but posted an OPS improvement under .125 include Luis Rivas(+.106 BA/+.113 OPS), Lance Berkman(+.055/+.113), and Homer Bush(+.066/+.108.

A few players qualified but weren't in the majors during most or all of August, including Richard Hidalgo(+.100 BA/+.327 OPS), Shawon Dunston(+.078/+.300), Eddie Taubensee(+.080/+.220), Jeff Frye(+.093/+.204), Bernard Gilkey(+.051/+.194), Julio Lugo(+.073/+.179), Jeff Abbott(+.061/+.166), Tony Fernandez(+.059/+.145), Russ Davis(+.067/+.115), and Alex Arias(+.061/+.109).

Today's Fantasy Rx: We always see a few potential 2003 veteran studs dropped this time of year as owners aim for prospects with even greater long-term upside. Watch to see if your league's rebuilding owners accidentally drop good values, and if you have an available roster spot, be ready to pick up anyone with decent skills who's holding a starting job at the moment.