Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: David Eckstein, SS
134/474 for .283/.361/.390 with 7 HR, 54 RBI, 83 R, 19/29 SB%, and 37:31 BB:K.

After a season of confounding many scouts by actually succeeding despite a lack of traditional tools, Eckstein has increased his BB:K from .72 to 1.19 and dropped his G-F from 1.58 to 1.17. The combination of better discipline and more power should boost his OPS beyond his current .751, making him likely to continue improving through his third major league season in 2003. He'll only turn 28 next year, keeping him in the prime of his career, and while we can't expect him to reach the Holy Shortstop Quad, he should easily finish fifth in roto value barring any league switches. Although his drop from 88% to 66% SB% worries us, it should only decrease his perceived value, making it easier to acquire Eckstein.

July Overachiever: Adam Kennedy, 2B
Old stats: 88/295 for .298/.332/.424 with 2 HR, 27 RBI, 41 R, 9/12 SB%, and 11:46 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 26/75 for .347 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 4 R, 5/6 SB, and 1:14 BB:K

Previous Overachievers: April: Garrett Anderson, OF; May: Orlando Palmeiro, OF; June: Jose Nieves, IF

Baltimore: Jay Gibbons, OF
97/384 for .253/.326/.495 with 23 HR, 55 RBI, 61 R, 1/3 SB%, and 41:53 BB:K.

He's suffered from pain in his left wrist all year, likely from a suture that failed to dissolve after surgery last August to remove a hamate bone. A smart organization would let him play full-time in the hope that he'd learn to hit left-handers better than his current .669 OPS in only 79 at-bats; as a 2001 Rule 5 pick, Baltimore only allowed him 27 at-bats against LHP even though he posted a 1.081 OPS. Gibbons is only 25 and should continue developing power with his G-F holding at .98, although his health problem limits his 2002 upside. Rebuilding teams should acquire him if possible as adding even one solid top-of-the-order hitter could boost Gibbons to a 35/100 season.

July Overachiever: Gary Matthews, Jr., OF
Old stats: 71/255 for .278/.353/.431 with 5 HR, 25 RBI, 41 R, 13/17 SB%, and 30:53 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 24/89 for .270 with 2 HR, 13 RBI, 13 R, 1/2 SB%, and 13:16 BB:K before hitting the DL yesterday.

Previous Overachievers: April: Marty Cordova, OF/DH; May: Geronimo Gil, C; June: Melvin Mora, UT

Boston: Nomar Garciaparra, SS
154/498 for .309/.348/.532 with 20 HR, 99 RBI, 78 R, 5/7 SB%, and 31:50 BB:K.

I expected him to suffer a somewhat severe slump after his disastrous 2001, and instead he manages to cruise to 100 RBI, likely finishing in the top 5 in the AL. However, whether due to injury or the 29-year-old's increasing age, his OPS is 70 points below his career average and his BA is 19 points down; compared to his great seasons in 1999 and 2000, he's lost 150 points of OPS and about 60 points of average. He's clearly still a top SS, but instead of contending for the MVP annually, I'd be surprised if he posted more than one additional great season similar to 1999 and 2000. Of course, even staying at his current level means you'll have to pay $30 for him each year as your fellow owners will expect he'll peak again, but his eroding BB:K, down to .62 following 1.26 in 99-00, strongly suggests he'll struggle to ever reach his career .328 BA again. Fortunately he's reached a career-best .71 G-F, maintaining his power potential. The best decision involving Nomar is probably to wait, as his current owners receive his very good stats and prospective owners should not overpay, especially if expecting a great BA.

July Overachiever: Jason Varitek, C
Old stats: 89/306 for .291/.360/.428 with 7 HR, 38 RBI, 44 R, 3/4 SB%, and 28:53 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 15/76 for .197 with 1 HR, 14 RBI, 5 R, 1/1 SB%, and 4:23 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Shea Hillenbrand, 3B; May: Brian Daubach, 1B/OF/DH; June: Carlos Baerga, IF

Chicago White Sox: Aaron Rowand, OF
49/206 for .238/.273/.364 with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 24 R, 0/1 SB%, and 7:39 BB:K.

Rowand seemed to gain the "centerfielder of the future" label sometime between the trade of Singleton and the Kenny Lofton signing. Lofton's trade now gives Rowand the starting job through the end of the year, meaning he's receiving many more at-bats than he deserves. I just don't see the plate discipline or overall skill level of a starting centerfielder here, and the Sox would gain far more offense with Borchard in center next year than they'd lose on defense by not playing Rowand. Even a jump from a .74 contact rate in 2001 to a .81 this year and a G-F drop from 2.13 to 1.81 now doesn't offset Rowand's fall from a .03 walk rate after a .12 last year. Try to deal Rowand to a rebuilding team if possible as he won't offer much quantitative help while hurting you qualitatively.

July Overachiever: Sandy Alomar, Jr., C
Old stats: 48/167 for .287/.309/.485 with 7 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%, and 5:14 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 16/57 for .281 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%, and 2:10 BB:K since his trade to Colorado.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kenny Lofton, OF; May: Tony Graffanino, IF; June: Paul Konerko, 1B

Cleveland: Ellis Burks, OF
119/419 for .284/.347/.527 with 27 HR, 73 RBI, 70 R, 2/3 SB%, and 36:87 BB:K.

With another 9 games and 21 at-bats, Burks will achieve his highest level of playing time since 1998. However he seems to perform better in a more limited role, as he's finished with a .900+ OPS each of the last three years but only managed an .861 OPS when he reached 500 at-bats. Burks turns 38 on September 11th, and we can see skill degradation for the first time in a decade. His .41 BB:K, .09 walk rate, and .79 contact rate all suggest he'll have trouble maintaining a BA above .280 in the future, and a rise in his G-F to 1.33 from last year's 1.11 indicates decreased power potential. Contenders can wait for Burks to finish the year if they need power, although his overall roto value soon will begin decreasing rather rapidly.

July Overachiever: Jim Thome, 1B
Old stats: 86/303 for .284/.420/.630 with 31 HR, 73 RBI, 55 R, 0/2 SB%, and 69:90 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 22/74 for .297 with 7 HR, 15 RBI, 19 R, 0/0 SB%, and 23:19 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Vizquel; May: Matt Lawton, OF; June: John McDonald, IF

Detroit: Brandon Inge
61/271 for .223/.287/.373 with 7 HR, 23 RBI, 24 R, 1/3 SB%, and 20:85 BB:K.

We hoped Mitch Meluskey would see most of Detroit's playing time this year but his persistent injury troubles kept Inge in a prominent role. He's still only starting to due to his reported defensive advantages over the Tigers' alternatives, so I suspect they'll definitely look to upgrade here in the off-season, possibly with someone like Ramon Castro. Inge has made some progress, including developing his BB:K and walk rate from .22 and .05 to .24 and .07 respectively; while minor gains, anyone with skills this weak needs every possible advantage. I'm more impressed by a jump to 4.13 #P/PA from 3.73 last season, and his improvement from a 1.18 G-F to .95, suggesting he's developing both patience and power. If his plate discipline continues to improve, he might be ownable in another few years, but as his power isn't worth the qualitative damage, deal or cut him.

July Overachiever: George Lombard, OF
Old stats: 32/108 for .296/.339/.528 with 4 HR, 8 RBI, 18 R, 5/7 SB%, and 6:30 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 15/64 for .234 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 R, 3/3 SB%, and 7:23 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Randall Simon, 1B/DH; May: Wendell Magee, OF; June: Ramon Santiago, SS

Kansas City: Carlos Beltran, OF
139/514 for .270/.339/.490 with 21 HR, 79 RBI, 86 R, 30/35 SB%, and 52:116 BB:K.

Beltran appears likely to approach his RBI and Run totals from last year while exceeding his HR and SB, leaving only his BA below his 2001 level, an unsurprising development given his questionable plate discipline. He's finally reached a 10% walk rate for the first time in his career, largely buoyed by a 3.98 #P/PA after never exceeding 3.64 in any previous season. He rarely ranges far from his steady career G-F ratio of 1.41, so we don't see any power development, but his speed is easily the most impressive aspect of his skill set. He's holding 86% success rate one year after posting an astounding 96% SB%, leaving him with a five-year career average of 88%. Even as his BA and overall power production will likely vary from season to season, his incredible speed and SB potential make him an excellent player to acquire if you need steals.

July Overachiever: Raul Ibanez, DH
Old stats: 77/277 for .278/.334/.879 with 14 HR, 66 RBI, 40 R, 3/5 SB%, and 23:43 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 35/113 for .310 with 8 HR, 23 RBI, 17 R, 0/1 SB%, and 8:12 BB:K

Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Randa, 3B; May: Michael Tucker, OF; June: A.J. Hinch, C

Minnesota: Dustan Mohr, OF
90/318 for .283/.333/.447 with 10 HR, 40 RBI, 48 R, 6/9 SB%, and 23:74 BB:K.

Like Bobby Kielty, Mohr's slumped to some extent since a very strong start to the season put him in the middle of the Rookie of the Year race. He spent no time at AAA before last season's September call-up, and with his current unacceptable .31 BB:K and .07 walk rate, he definitely could have used the extra development while Mike Ryan and Todd Sears probably deserved promotions. Neither Mohr's 1.22 G-F nor his 3.60 #P/PA are particularly strong numbers, and while he'll likely hang around for several years as a back-up, his upside is rather limited. Deal him now before the approaching influx of top power prospects pushes Mohr onto another team.

July Overachiever: Bobby Kielty, OF
Old stats: 63/192 for .328/.456/.992 with 8 HR, 35 RBI, 41 R, 3/4 SB%, and 41:43 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 10/51 for .196 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%, and 8:11 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Torii Hunter; May: Jacque Jones, OF; June: A.J. Pierzynski, C

New York Yankees: Derek Jeter, SS
156/522 for .299/.375/421 with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 99 R, 27/30 SB%, and 60:96 BB:K.

He appears likely to pass his previous high of thirty steals, and considering he's now posted the same 90% SB% two years in a row, you can at least count on him for more than two dozen steals each year. Unfortunately, all his other ratios have been dropping for three straight years since his 1999 peak. He's barely holding a .63 BB:K and .11 walk rate, each rather removed from his .78 BB:K and .15 walk rate four seasons ago. More disturbingly, his BA, OBP, and SLG have all dropped, lowering his OPS an average of almost 65 points over these last three seasons. His 2.36 G-F is back above his 2.19 career average after a 1.63 in 1999 and a 1.96 last year, and only his place in the Yankees' lineup keeps his value elevated. Look to deal Jeter, since if you're going to overpay for an AL shortstop by $10, make sure to spend your cap room on the likely AL MVP instead of this respectable #2 hitter.

July Overachiever: Jorge Posada, C
Old stats: 86/324 for .265/.367/.506 with 17 HR, 71 RBI, 57 R, 1/1 SB%, and 53:94 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 20/74 for .270 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%, and 18:23 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Alfonso Soriano, 2B; May: Robin Ventura, 3B; June: Ron Coomer, IF

Oakland: Mark Ellis, SS
73/268 for .272/.353/.403 with 5 HR, 25 RBI, 47 R, 2/4 SB%, and 32:40 BB:K.

Like David Eckstein, scouts tabbed Ellis as a back-up at best due to his excellent skills and solid defense - rather they hated that he knew how to play baseball - I mean that they felt he owned less tools than Homer Simpson, and Ellis (probably) doesn't live next to Ned Flanders. He's completed his minor league apprenticeship faster than Angel Berroa, the shortstop prospect that Oakland essentially traded for him, and now he's an integral part of a team headed to the playoffs. Ellis' .80 BB:K, .12 walk rate, and .85 contact rate are excellent marks for a rookie middle infielder, and his 4.13 #P/PA and .70 G-F suggest that he'll maintain a respectable average while potentially developing helpful power. Our only concern is available playing time, although Oakland seems willing to move Esteban German and not re-sign Durham given Ellis' progress. He's a solid and likely low cost middle infielder to acquire, especially if you're rebuilding.

July Overachiever: John Mabry, OF
Old stats: 44/141 for .312/.333/.518 with 6 HR, 28 RBI, 16 R, 0/1 SB%, and 5:26 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal him now.
Stats since recommendation: 9/28 for .321 with 2 HR, 10 RBI, 5 R, 1/1 SB%, and 4:5 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jeremy Giambi, OF; May: Scott Hatteberg, UT; June: Miguel Tejada

Seattle: John Olerud, 1B
135/449 for .301/.399/.512 with 20 HR, 82 RBI, 77 R, 0/0 SB%, and 76:57 BB:K.

While Olerud's strained left groin has limited his playing time over the last couple series, his overall production places him third among all first basemen in the game after Jason Giambi and Jim Thome. Seattle absolutely needs to either re-sign Olerud or replace him with Thome if they want to remain a serious playoff contender. Unlike the power-laden Thome, Olerud's overall hitting consistency has kept his roto value quite stable for the last several years. He's definitely peaking in some areas as both his 3.92 #P/PA and .99 G-F are his second-best career marks in those categories, although his 1.33 BB:K, .17 walk rate, and .87 contact rate are all very near his norm. If you're strong in steals and need help elsewhere on offense, Olerud is a very useful player to acquire even with his health questions, since we suspect he'll finish the year strongly as the Mariners push towards the playoffs.

July Overachiever: Ichiro Suzuki, OF
Old stats: 148/420 for .352/.419/.474 with 6 HR, 35 RBI, 75 R, 25/36 SB%, and 47:36 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 31/104 for .298 with 0 HR, 9 RBI, 18 R, 2/3 SB%, and 8:6 BB:K

Previous Overachievers: April: Carlos Guillen, SS; May: Mark McLemore, UT; June: Dan Wilson, C

Tampa Bay: Jared Sandberg, 3B
66/281 for .235/.300/.466 with 16 HR, 45 RBI, 46 R, 2/3 SB%, and 26:108 BB:K.

I've never believed Sandberg would find much success in the majors due to his rarely decent plate discipline, and with a career .225 BA, I'm surprised Tampa continues to play him. However his 16 homers are quite impressive considering he didn't even manage that many last season at AAA Durham in 41 less at-bats. We can't expect his BA to improve as long as he stays at a .24 BB:K, but a .09 walk rate, combined with a fantastic G-F improvement to 1.17 after 1.88 last year, gives him enough patience and power potential to intrigue me. He offers too much downside for contenders except those truly desperate for power, although rebuilders should attempt to acquire him if the price is not prohibitive.

July Overachiever: Chris Gomez, SS
Old stats: 80/321 for .249/.296/.393 with 7 HR, 31 RBI, 38 R, 0/2 SB%, and 16:39 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 22/69 for .319 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%, and 2:5 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Randy Winn, OF; May: John Flaherty, C; June: Aubrey Huff, DH/UT

Texas: Ruben Rivera, OF
21/97 for .216/.274/.340 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R, 3/3 SB%, and 6:23 BB:K.

Hollandsworth's return relegates Rivera to a comfortable spot on the bench, and he should be pleased with his situation after spending much of the year at AA Tulsa. His skills don't even warrant a regular platoon job, and a career-worst 3.67 #P/PA and only marginally decent .97 G-F suggest he's somewhat lucky to even hold a .614 OPS. He still owns notable power and speed potential, but after seven seasons spent with four different franchises attempting to harness his skill, I doubt we'll ever see more than one more solid year from him. Deal or cut Rivera as you can very likely find a replacement with either more skills or more upside.

July Overachiever: Mike Lamb, 3B
Old stats: 59/202 for .292/.335/.391 with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 25 R, 0/0 SB%, and 13:29 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 10/40 for .250 with 2 HR, 6 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%, and 3:7 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Hank Blalock, 3B; May: Herb Perry, 3B; June: Kevin Mench, OF

Toronto: Orlando Hudson, 2B
35/111 for .315/.350/.514 with 3 HR, 14 RBI, 15 R, 0/1 SB%, and 6:16 BB:K.

Hudson's certainly producing solidly at the moment but his skills are weak and suggest he can't sustain his current success. Only a .86 contact rate is reasonably good, and his .38 BB:K and .05 walk rate are particularly worrisome. A 1.22 G-F also indicates we shouldn't expect much power from him in the near future, and he's not even running. While his long-term upside and 2003 value both appear very favorable, most contenders should deal Hudson as you can likely secure significant bounty for him at the moment.

July Overachiever: Josh Phelps, DH
Old stats: 24/82 for .293/.326/.309 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and 3:24 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal him if a contender.
Stats since recommendation: 24/84 for .286 with 6 HR, 22 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%, and 5:24 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Eric Hinske, 3B; May: Tom Wilson, C; June: Chris Woodward, IF

Today's Fantasy Rx: Saturday is normally the latest trade deadline in leagues with a trade deadline, so if you still have the ability to upgrade your roster through deals, you need to start talking with other owners today. Try to send out at least an opening offer ASAP if you believe you can either acquire specific category help or deal a category excess to a team that could pass one of your primary competitors in the standings.