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August 25th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko For anyone who missed it, CDM posted the following message on their BBS last week:
8/18 13:37:25 CDMMAN cdm While roster expansion fees will also not be prorated or refunded, we see no reason whatsover not to expand teams today. We still expect that we'll either have no work stoppage at all or only miss up to a week, games that likely will be made up, like last year, by pushing the playoffs back one week. Therefore, the only concession we'll make to losing next weekend's games is to avoid one-start pitchers where possible who pitch Friday, Saturday, or Sunday, as well as making sure that any potential double-starts don't include a dreadful matchup on Monday or Tuesday.
Chicago Cubs: 8 games: 4 Road at Milwaukee; 4 Home vs. St. Louis.
7 Home games
7 games
Milwaukee: 4 Home vs. Chicago Cubs; 3 Road at Cincinnati. New York Yankees: 1 Home vs. Texas; 3 Road at Boston; 3 Road at Toronto.
7 Road games Teams with six home games: Cleveland.
Florida: 5 Home games: 2 vs. New York Mets; 3 vs. Pittsburgh All other teams play six games with at least three on the road.
We had a bad week. We're now out of the top 25 for the first time in a few months due to the collapses of Lawrence and Halladay, as well as 1530 wasted on Larry Walker. However we still like the overall composition of our team, and will use our callups to create cap room to run the three stud pitchers every week to attempt to partially fix our WHIP. For call-ups, we'll first look at the highest percantage players at each position whom we don't own, as well as anyone over 50% either overall or in the top 250. At catcher, Lo Duca is owned by 58.9% overall and 73.6% in the top 250, but with Posada and Pierzynski, we don't believe we can nicely upgrade catcher. While we wish we still had Hall, we're not comfortable adding a catcher backup who plays 3-4 times a week. At 1B, only Helton, Giambi, and Konerko are over 50% for either overall or top 250, and we own all three. With Klesko also around, we're not adding a 5th 1B even if someone like D.Ortiz or C.Pena opens up cap elsewhere. At 2B, our rising need for steals precludes removing Castillo or Soriano. We'll run without a backup at C and 2B, and use our last move here if there's an injury. Chavez and Hillenbrand are owned by most teams at 3B, and since we'd like to add someone here both for flexibility and injury insurance, we'll likely use one move on Aaron Boone or Eric Hinske. They're both 750 and provide help in several categories. ARod and Nomar are owned by nearly everyone, and while Rollins would help to some extent, we were comfortable getting rid of him a few weeks ago. We still have some faith in Uribe, and don't want to add anyone else here with the top two guys likely playing every week through the end of the year. Outfielders over 50% for the top 250 and/or overall include Vlad, Larry Walker, Ichiro, Berkman, Drew, Torii Hunter, and Dunn. We own everyone except Hunter, so we'll consider adding him or Burrell instead of a 3B. At SP, we already own the high percentage plays of Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Mussina, Morris, Zito, Wood, Oswalt, Gagne, and Halladay. We don't own Derek Lowe or Odalis Perez, but we're still trying to boost strikeouts, and we're comfortable with the large group of starters we already own. While Izzy's been one of the best relievers in the league when healthy, we need expensive SP help far more than a couple extra saves. Only Mike Williams and Eddie Guardado are owned by a majority of everyone, although DeJean reaches 54.8% of the top 250. His skill are still weak and perhaps his recent health concerns will finally boost Luis Vizcaino, although we can't count on Vizcaino's help. The safe bet here is Scott Stewart, who offers excellent skills and some save opps for one of the cheapest salaries of any reliever. We'll pick up Stewart and dismiss Hunter from consideration due to less potential games from Minnesota. On offense, we need RBI, followed by SB and then HR. We won't add Burrell as we'd rather have a 3B backup for a cheaper price. Overall 8.7% of teams own Aaron Boone, as well as 19.6% of the top 250. Hinske's only at 6.9% and 8.8% respectively, and as Boone will likely double in usage this weekend, Hinske gives us more opportunity to gain ground. However since we're more concerned about SB and than HR, we think they'll post similar RBI, and we believe Aaron Boone will have every chance to reach 30/30 (he needs 7 HR & 3 SB), we'll add Boone, since we know he'll at least nab three SB. As originally planned, we'll save our last remaining move as long as we can as we expect the season to continue.
Randy, Hudson, and Vazquez could miss singles, so we won't run any of them. Schilling is automatic on a double, and we're quite comfortable running Pedro at home against the Yankees. Oswalt's the safest of the remaining starters since he's at home, and then Kerry looks really good in Milwaukee. We're not willing to run Lawrence after his disastrous double, so we'll look at Zito, Gagne, and Halladay once we've checked our offense. Izzy's blowup today, combined with the likelihood that the Cardinals might need to overwork him given their 8 games this weeks, makes him safe to sit in favor of Stewart. Drew and Jeremy Giambi will sit since we'd like more guaranteed playing time now that we have more cap room. Boone allows us to bench Hillenbrand, and as Uribe has one more game(and plays at home), we'd rather have him active than Shea. We'll deploy Vlad since he's only 2 SB shy of 30/30 and Ichiro has only one SB in the last three weeks; Suzuki sits. Larry Walker rides the pine as he could easily miss all of this week, and then we just can't find cap room (or roster space with 3 1B and 3 SS already active) to run Jason Giambi. We're running Sosa since he always obliterates Milwaukee, could play 8 games this week, and really wants to get seven more homers for 50 this year and 500 in his career. The only "negative" is running Halladay instead of Zito, but since Halladay could double and he's been better than Zito overall, we'll miss the likely guaranteed Zito win in KC.
C Jorge Posada 990 C A.J. Pierzynski 460 1B Ryan Klesko 1300 1B Paul Konerko 1220 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Aaron Boone 750 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Juan Uribe 500 OF Sammy Sosa 1900 OF Vlad Guerrero 1880 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Juan Pierre 1180 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 DH Todd Helton 1980 DH Nomar Garciaparra 1120
SP Pedro Martinez 1770 SP Curt Schilling 1540 SP Kerry Wood 1050 SP Roy Oswalt 830 SP Roy Halladay 490 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750 RP Scott Stewart 490
Our week was even worse here, so hopefully we can manage to pick up some gruond in the next few days. We can only add one player here, so our options are somewhat reduced. Players owned by more than 50% of either the top 250 or overall who we don't own include Spivey, Chavez, Lowell(who we dropped last week), Vlad, and Odalis Perez. As we're already running our preferred pen here and own 14 starters, we'll certainly spend our move on some offensive player. Our main statistical problems are WHIP, ERA, SB, RBI, and then offense in general, so we're again stuck with the tough decision of needing someone to provide cheap help everywhere on offense. We're also willing to use one of our two remaining moves, so who would help the most? With the Phillies playing three against Montreal and three in New York, we'll pick up Rollins in roster expansion since his skills look great and he should have a great week. Plus, he gives us a SS backup. If we have available cash in future weeks, we'll take a long look at Chavez, likely replacing Drew, Jeremy Giambi, or Sosa as we doubt we'll have the cap room to run him the rest of the year with our need for the top pitchers.
SP(6) With essentially the same starting options here as in DC as Garcia and Lowe pitch Friday while Clemens is on the road, we'll start the same five primary options of Pedro, Schilling, Wood, Oswalt, and Gagne before deciding between Zito and Halladay based on available cap on offense. Rollins goes into the lineup as we'll sit the questionable Sosa and Larry Walker, along with perennial PT questions Drew and Jeremy Giambi, and then Jason Giambi sits with Helton in the lineup. Lastly, Halladay will start instead of Zito for cap reasons.
C Jorge Posada 990 C Michael Barrett 590 1B Todd Helton 1980 1B Paul Konerko 1220 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Aaron Boone 750 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Nomar Garciaparra 1120 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Juan Pierre 1180 OF Pat Burrell 920 OF Torii Hunter 830 OF Adam Dunn 710 DH Daryle Ward 620 DH Jimmy Rollins 940
SP Pedro Martinez 1770 SP Curt Schilling 1540 SP Kerry Wood 1050 SP Roy Oswalt 830 SP Eric Gagne 500 SP Roy Halladay 490 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750 RP Scott Stewart 490
SP(6) No starts: Randy, Morris, and Vazquez.
Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Road games at Los Angeles. With the schedule coinciding with a potential strike and Kim in LA against Gagne, we again have Pedro, Schilling, Wood, Oswalt, and Gagne, with the Zito/Halladay decision dependent on cap room. On offense, we're basically left with a choice between Sosa in Milwaukee for four games or Klesko in Houston for 3 games. In case Sosa sits for a day or two, we'll deploy Klesko, and that move leaves us with even cap room to run Nomar over Uribe.
C Jorge Posada 990 C A.J. Pierzynski 460 1B Todd Helton 1980 1B Ryan Klesko 1300 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Nomar Garciaparra 1120 OF Barry Bonds 1830 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Juan Pierre 1180 OF Torii Hunter 830 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 DH Vlad Guerrero 1880 DH Paul Konerko 1220
SP Pedro Martinez 1770 SP Curt Schilling 1540 SP Kerry Wood 1050 SP Roy Oswalt 830 SP Roy Halladay 490 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750 RP Scott Stewart 490
While we were going to add two pitchers, after Kevin Millwood and his solid double this week against Pittsburgh and Montreal, we don't see a second available starter considering Oakland's irregular schedule for the next two weeks. We'll add Jeff Kent as our second call-up, and we'll keep both our remaining moves instead of adding a pitcher we won't use this week while dropping Bret Boone. The only players owned by 50% or more of either the top 250 or overall in FB are Pujols, Suzuki, Zito, and the now DL'd Burnett. If Zito doubles next week, we'll add him, likely for Morris, and we're comfortable not running Pujols or Suzuki here.
Pedro, Schilling, Millwood, Wood, Oswalt, and Gagne all look solid, so that's our staff for the week. Attrition accounts for most of our offensive lineup as we don't trust the playing time of Larry Walker, Pierre, Jeremy Giambi, Drew, Floyd, and the DL'd Nick Johnson. Boone and Lowell also continue to slump, and we'll bench Spivey since we think Uribe has more upside (and an extra game scheduled). While these moves leaves us 410 of cap room remaining, we don't believe adding another player we don't trust will significantly help this team right now.
C Paul Lo Duca 1640 C A.J. Pierzynski 1000 1B Jason Giambi 3320 1B Steve Cox 1160 2B Jeff Kent 2740 2B Alfonso Soriano 1800 3B Eric Chavez 2270 3B Aramis Ramirez 1590 SS Alex Rodriguez 3430 SS Nomar Garciaparra 2160 OF Sammy Sosa 3480 OF Lance Berkman 2540 OF Torii Hunter 1710 OF Adam Dunn 1610 OF Daryle Ward 1590 OF Corey Patterson 1370 DH Todd Helton 3400 DH Juan Uribe 1300
SP Curt Schilling 3160 SP Pedro Martinez 2950 SP Kerry Wood 2300 SP Kevin Millwood 2060 SP Roy Oswalt 1750 SP Eric Gagne 1230 RP John Smoltz 2610 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 2230 RP Eddie Guardado 1690 RP Jorge Julio 1500
Now with 5 moves left, we can literally burn one move a week, so for cap reasons, we're going to use our roster expansion on Kevin Millwood while releasing Burnett in favor of Mark Prior. Millwood looks good for two wins and Prior should at least rack up good strikeout numbers tomorrow.
Schilling, Millwood, Prior, Halladay, and Gagne all loook solid, and we think Oswalt has the next best chance for the win, rounding out our staff. Hall appears more likely to produce than Pierzsynki, so he'll stay deployed. We're concerned about playing time for Larry Walker and Jeremy Giambi, so we'll bench them. We don't have cap room for Ichiro, Konerko, or Torii Hunter, and Florida only plays five games, so we can't run Castillo or Derek Lee.
C Paul Lo Duca 1640 C Toby Hall 1000 1B Todd Helton 3400 1B Steve Cox 1160 2B Alfonso Soriano 1800 2B Junior Spivey 1500 3B Eric Chavez 2270 3B Aaron Boone 1600 SS Alex Rodriguez 3430 SS Nomar Garciaparra 2160 OF Barry Bonds 3360 OF Lance Berkman 2540 OF Albert Pujols 2500 OF Pat Burrell 2050 OF Adam Dunn 1610 OF Erubiel Durazo 1260 DH Eric Hinske 1500 DH David Eckstein 1380
SP Curt Schilling 3160 SP Kevin Millwood 2090 SP Roy Oswalt 1750 SP Mark Prior 1500 SP Roy Halladay 1230 SP Eric Gagne 1230 RP John Smoltz 2610 RP Mike Williams 1790 RP Eddie Guardado 1690 RP Jorge Julio 1500
More importantly, as I advised above, construct your roster as if there may be a brief work stoppage this weekend, but if they work out a settlement, you can't afford to have any overall weakness if and when they return to finish the season.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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