Today's Fantasy Rx

Thirty pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of a week ago. Jarrod Washburn rejoined the list this week while Paul Shuey(traded to NL) and John Halama(H/9) dropped off, leaving our total of LIMA-quality 2002 AL pitchers with at least 15 IP at twenty-nine AL pitchers.

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the twelfth set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings which include all games played through August 1st. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(45555)

Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

Usually I'd suggest targeting a DL'd player like Rivera, but Torre might rest him a lot over the rest of the season even if he stays healthy, so exercise caution if discussing any deals for him.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(20224)
abxy - Roy Halladay(43544)

Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

124
Chad Bradford
Ugueth Urbina

The additions of Rincon and Bowie allow Oakland to use Bradford in even more high leverage situations; add him if available in nearly any league.

134
Billy Koch
Cliff Politte

We're not pleased about losing Shuey's potential save opps, especially as we moved a lot of talent in one league to pick him up at a $1. Escobar also should hang around Toronto the rest of the year, limiting Politte's role to setup at best.

234
Keith Foulke

12
bx - Joel Pineiro(34232)
by - Mark Mulder(54525)

Matt Ginter
Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

Rincon is a great pick-up for both the A's and anyone needing middle relief. Look at Ginter very carefully if you have keeper spots open, as persistent Keith Foulke trade rumors leave Ginter the closer-in-waiting in Chicago.

13
axby - Tim Wakefield(53544)

Buddy Groom

Wakefield has dominated in five of his six starts. The Red Sox have their third starter for the playoffs right here if only they realize his potential. We recognize that he has far more value in the bullpen during the season, but if they make the playoffs, they should certainly leave him in the rotation at the expense of the inconsistent Burkett or inexperienced Fossum.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(24540)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(43144)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(44232)
bxyz - Kevin Appier(45234)
x - Danys Baez(45340)

Welcome to the Isle of Misfit Starters, where you can count on acceptable yearly stats and the need for antacid if you actually have to watch their starts. Is Kevin Appier really the safest pitcher to own here?

24
cx - Paul Wilson(45344)

Dan Miceli
Todd Van Poppel

Wilson continues to cruise but lacks wins; if you need qualitative stats help, he's a good pitcher to target.

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(42004)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

Riske may have the best skills left in Cleveland pen, although anyone here could cause major ERA or WHIP damage at any time.

1
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(33334)
a - Johan Santana(55005)

Casey Fossum(53)
Juan Acevedo
Francisco Cordero
Brendan Donnelly
Alan Embree
LaTroy Hawkins
Jorge Julio
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

The truly safe middle relievers who won't see save opportunities probably are limited to Donnelly and Hawkins; neither one should remain unowned in AL-only leagues. I'll be very surprised if Santana doesn't dominate next year in whatever role he fills, so look to add him if rebuilding.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(53443)
axy - Freddy Garcia(51045)
b - Rolando Arrojo(50200)
x - C.C. Sabathia(32222)
z - Kelvim Escobar

Sabathia's skills are just dreadful right now and he hasn't dominated any team in well over a month. Garcia might be rebounding, making him the second best pick here after Zito.

Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez
Victor Zambrano

Only Hasegawa and maybe Ryan deserve roster spots. We're interested to see if Zambrano will see success starting. If he's available in any AL-only leagues and you're desperate for wins, consider running him for next week's relatively safe double start.

3
bxy - John Burkett(34250)
yz - Rick Reed(34431)
y - Andy Pettitte(04335)

Gary Glover(33234)
Steve Karsay
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

If desperate for wins, Glover offers some stability at the moment. Pettitte also might finally be healthy and ready to contribute to roto teams.

4
ax - Derek Lowe(24453)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

a
cx - David Wells(51344)
xy - Mark Buehrle(45334)
xz - Orlando Hernandez(40524)
yz - Jamie Moyer(34355)
y - Eric Milton(54555)

Only the Great Pedro is hotter than Milton now, and Eric could even rack up some wins over the last two months to go with his normal WHIP help.

b
y - Cory Lidle(30413)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

We're not surprised that Lidle stayed in the AL with the A's needing an extra starter due to Lilly's injury. However if the Angels are so desperate for relief help, why couldn't they have moved Wise to the Cubs for Fassero and Gordon. Chicago gets an intriguing righty the Angels don't like who can begin in long relief, and Anaheim picks up two inconsistent veteran pitchers who've occasionally shown glimpses of dominance this year. Of course until Bill Stoneman agrees to deal a pitching prospect occasionally, Anaheim won't acquire many players through trade

c
x - Mark Redman(23454)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

x
yz - Ramon Ortiz(50513)
y - Jeff Weaver(44243)
y - Paul Byrd(13354)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(44201)
y - Jeff Suppan(42233)
z - Sidney Ponson(32344)
z - Frank Castillo(32400)
Rodrigo Lopez(43455)
James Baldwin(34415)
John Lackey(34043)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
Shawn Sedlacek(34230)

Ortiz switched LPR rankings with Washburn, although both continue to provide solid anchors for Anaheim's pitching. Weaver also similarly swapped with Mark Buehrle, and while Weaver appears to have fallen apart in New York, his skills remain relatively solid; definitely try to acquire him from owners disappointed in his slow start. Lopez continues to stay only slightly out of 1x qualification, and he could move up any week now. Lackey also offers a lot of upside if available.

y
z - Aaron Sele(32442)
z - Kenny Rogers(03340)
z - Todd Ritchie(40330)
z - Brad Radke(15300)
z - Pat Hentgen

Esteban Loiaza(20533)
Dave Burba(43203)
Jon Garland(33004)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Joe Mays(00323)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Rick Bauer

Only Sele, Rogers, and Loiaza even appear relatively safe, so try to avoid deploying the other pitchers listed here when possible.

z
Steve Parris(44203)
Jason Johnson(41412)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque

With Parris slipping a little, don't go out of your way to add or use any of these few pitchers.

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), Micah Bowie, Chris Carpenter(25343), John Halama(40312), Aaron Harang(53020), Travis Harper(0443), Oscar Henriquez, Roberto Hernandez, Runelvys Hernandez(35), Sun-Woo Kim(30), Danny Kolb, Ted Lilly(25052), Kyle Lohse(45333), Ramiro Mendoza, Jason Phillips(433), Brian Powell(42), Scot Shields, Steve Sparks(02454), Ismael Valdes(13244), Ben Weber, and Esteban Yan. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Miguel Ascencio(23020), Rob Bell(14122), Adam Bernero(30020), Rocky Biddle(00), Ryan Bukvich, Luis de los Santos(01), Ryan Drese(50201), Travis Driskill(31030), Scott Erickson(33510), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(3301), Seth Greisinger(03400), Matt Kinney(32021), Jose Lima(50052), Mike Maroth(05040), Darrell May(54300), Terry Mulholland, Aaron Myette(3100), Charles Nagy(0400), Jay Powell, Dan Reichert(01231), Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Jorge Sosa(33431), Jeff Tam, Anthony Telford, Pete Walker(20410), Mark Wohlers, and Danny Wright(34444).

Danny Wright's apparent hot streak of six solid starts(434444) occurred against Detroit twice, Cleveland, Baltimore, Kansas City, and then Detroit again. He's an interesting rebuilding target, but we'll need to see a few more good weeks before recommending him.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Cliff Floyd is easily the most important player headed into the AL. If you need help anywhere on offense save steals, bid as much FAAB as you can. Hollandsworth looks like a very solid back-up plan, and might even be preferable if you need steals. Alex Ochoa should also help out a lot of teams as a UT or even fifth outfielder depending on the strength of the rest of your roster.

John Stephens' disaster on Tuesday doesn't dim our expectations of him at all. Especially if he pitches well on Sunday, we still think he could emerge as a solid starter no later than next year since he's completely proven himself at AAA. If Sal Fasano sees any time in Anaheim, he offers a couple of cheap homers at catcher. If rebuilding, consider taking a flyer on Dennys Reyes, as while he'll likely continue pitching relatively badly this year, he's shown good skills in the past and possesses a lot of upside. Ricardo Rincon could pick up three or more wins in the Athletics' bullpen as their primary lefty, and former prospect Micah Bowie's pitched great at AAA. Finally, if you can pick up prospects, Marshall McDougal could be starting in the Cleveland infield by the middle of next year.