Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Ben Weber, RH Setup
5 Saves on 29:17 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 36 G with 39 H, 3 HR, and a 2.72 ERA.

He's surpassed Al Levine and Lou Pote as the Angels' top setup man, and grabbed five saves while Percival returned to the DL. When he started closing, he held a 27:12 K:BB in 40.1 IP; but a combined 2:5 K:BB in 6 IP over 6 games has left his command appearing very questionable. Fortunately we know that he's allowed less than a hit per inning over the last two years, and he's also maintained an excellent homer rate. Even more impressively, his G-F is 3.04, and his pre-2002 career G-F average was 2.50, so he simply doesn't allow many fly balls. Still, with a career 5.4 K/9 and 1.5 K:BB, Weber doesn't appear to possess the skills to remain a closer, so deal him now while his value has peaked.

June Overachiever: Lou Pote, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-1 on 25:21 K:BB in 40.2 IP over 26 G with 26 H, 4 HR, and a 2.88 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 3:4 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 4 G with 5 H, 2 HR, and a 5.40 ERA before his demotion to the minors.

Previous Overachievers: April: Ramon Ortiz, RH Starter; May: Dennis Cook, LH Reliever

Baltimore: Rodrigo Lopez, RH Starter
12-3 on 89:43 K:BB in 128.2 IP over 17 GS(22G) with 103 H, 14 HR, and a 3.01 ERA.

Neither his six major league starts with San Diego in 2000 nor his previous MLEs gave any indication of this potential success. He's challenging Eric Hinske for Rookie of the Year while providing stability for an intriguing yet inconsistent mix of Orioles' starters. Although the fourth best defense in the majors certainly has helped reduce his hits allowed, he's holding acceptable skill ratios across the board. A .99 G-F does indicate some potential for an increase from his 1.0 homer rate, but Lopez qualifies for all the LPR goals and has avoided explicit signs of a pending fade. Our main concern is now overwork as he's never exceeded 169.1 IP in a season and only pitched 174.2 IP over the last two years combined. I can't recommend him because of these questions, however I also think even contenders can afford to wait to see if Lopez will continue his great pitching. Only move him if you receive a more established pitcher less likely to burn out.

June Overachiever: Travis Driskill, RH Starter
Old stats: 5-0 on 27:17 K:BB in 48.2 IP over 6 GS(11G) with 48 H, 8 HR, and a 3.51 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-5 on 16:2 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 6 GS with 45 H, 7 HR, and a 6.96 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Scott Erickson, RH Starter; May: Willis Roberts, RH Reliever

Boston: Pedro Martinez, RH Starter
14-2 on 178:30 K:BB in 145 IP over 22 GS with 102 H, 9 HR, and a 2.36 ERA.

We projected 16 wins and 190 IP for Pedro, numbers he seems likely to cruise past by the end of August barring a work stoppage. Our understanding was that his past injuries leave his arm very vulnerable to abuse, increasing the possibility of problems later in the season. From a skills' perspective, his 2002 season seems relatively more comparable to 1998 than any of his three previous Boston years. His 1.08 G-F is down from his 1.31 G-F average with the Red Sox, and he exceeded his current 11.0 K/9 and 5.9 K:BB in each of the last three seasons. However his skills are still superior to those from his Montreal days, and barring injury, he should easily outdistance teammate Derek Lowe for another Cy Young. You can certainly pick him up if you need incredible starting pitching help, and Pedro's not necessarily a worse risk than a Barry Zito. I'd still prefer to wait if possible now unless he's the only starter available for you to add and you can meet the asking price without gutting the rest of your team.

June Overachiever: Derek Lowe, RH Starter
Old stats: 11-3 on 65:24 K:BB in 104.1 IP over 15 GS with 68 H, 3 HR, and a 2.16 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 3-2 on 23:11 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 6 GS with 30 H, 2 HR, and a 2.45 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Oliver, LH Starter; May: Rolando Arrojo, RH Swingman

Chicago White Sox: Damaso Marte, LH Setup
1-1 and 3 Saves on 45:14 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 49 G with 32 H, 4 HR, and a 3.57 ERA.

His combined 2001 skill ratios included a 3.5 K:BB and 8.1 K/9, a level of effectiveness that suggests immediate continued success. Marte has continued his skill development, adding both a reduced .9 homer rate and a great 7.1 H/9. Those numbers seem supported by a 1.34 G-F ratio, a welcome increase from last year's .71 G-F, which left him more vulnerable to power hitters. Now he appears quite established as the White Sox's primary left-handed reliever and even a part-time closer, and I have complete confidence that he will continue pitching at this level at least through the end of the season. Acquire Marte if you need a low-risk, high-upside reliever to provide qualitative category help and even a few saves.

June Overachiever: Mark Buehrle, LH Starter
Old stats: 11-5 on 66:35 K:BB in 116 IP over 17 GS with 104 H, 11 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 3-2 on 30:9 K:BB in 42.1 IP over 5 GS with 45 H, 4 HR, and a 4.89 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Gary Glover, RH Setup; May: Bobby Howry, RH Reliever

Cleveland: Mark Wohlers, RH Short Reliever
2 Saves on 31:20 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 40 G with 50 H, 2 HR, and a 5.25 ERA.

Wickman's injury and Shuey's trade, along with the general ineffectiveness of the young right-handers in the bullpen, leave Wohlers as the Indians' closer for the next few series. Unfortunately Wohlers appears quite unprepared to resume closing duties as only his .4 HR/9, supported by a 2.16 G-F, appears overly solid. Of course Mike DeJean's succeeded with a rather similar skills' set this year, but we're not comfortable deploying Wohlers even to just chase saves at this point. Deal him to anyone needing a couple saves, preferably a team who could move ahead of one of your primary competitors in that category.

June Overachiever: Ryan Drese, RH Starter
Old stats: 7-5 on 62:35 K:BB in 80.2 IP over14 GS with 94 H, 7 HR, and a 5.47 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire him if rebuilding.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 17:11 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 6 GS with 37 H, 5 HR, and a 12.21 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Shuey, RH Relief; May: Bartolo Colon, RH Starter

Detroit: Julio Santana, RH Reliever
3-3 on 33:27 K:BB in 50.1 IP over 33 G with 40 H, 7 HR, and a 2.50 ERA.

He's pitched somewhat effectively but his ERA will head upwards due to his awful command. His .97 G-F is easily his worst career mark, so his homer rate will also likely increase. Nothing in Santana's statistical history or his skills suggest he can maintain his current pace. Deal or cut Santana in favor of a safer pitcher.

June Overachiever: Mike Maroth, LH Starter
Old stats: 1-1 on 6:7 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 25 H, 1 HR, and a 3.86 ERA.
Recommendation: deal him now.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 16:8 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 5 GS with 34 H, 4 HR, and a 5.13 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Steve Sparks, RH Starter; May: Juan Acevedo, RH Closer

Kansas City: Scott Mullen, LH Reliever
3-2 on 6:2 K:BB in 17 IP over 19 G with 17 H, 3 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.

As he isn't a dominant reliever at all and in consideration of his career .8 BB:K and 4.4 K/9 prior to 2002, I certainly don't expect his ERA to remain this low. However his minor league numbers this seasons were fairly decent, including a 21:9 K:BB in 31 IP over 19 G(1 GS) with 32 H, 0 HR, and a 2.61 ERA. Mullen normally pitches less than an inning per appearance, so he doesn't have many chances to compile any truly awful outings. His 1.50 G-F suggests he isn't liable to allow too many homers and supports a HR/9 better than his current 1.6 ratio. You probably could hang onto him if necessary, but I'd rather deal or cut him in favor of someone with upside.

June Overachiever: Miguel Ascencio, RH Swingman
Old stats: 1-1 on 15:20 K:BB in 41 IP over 15G(5GS) with 36 H, 9 HR, and a 5.27 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 13:18 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 5 GS with 35 H, 4 HR, and a 7.11 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Byrd, RH Starter; May: Jeremy Affeldt, LH Starter

Minnesota: Tony Fiore, RH Reliever
9-2 on 42:26 K:BB in 64.2 IP over 30 G(2GS) with 47 H, 6 HR, and a 3.20 ERA.

At one point this season he ranked as the best reliever in the majors, and he's still among the top bullpen contributors even with his somewhat shallow skills. His 1.6 K:BB, 5.8 K/9, and 1.3 HR/9 all worry me to various extents, especially as a .75 G-F barely supports his current homer rate. As his 6.5 H/9 seems more a product of the Twins' defense than overmatching hitters, I can't imagine Fiore's value will increase. Talk up his nine wins in an attempt to deal him.

June Overachiever: LaTroy Hawkins, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-0 on 41:7 K:BB in 48.2 IP over 33 G with 34 H, 4 HR, and a 1.66 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 10:3 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 11 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and a 1.35 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: J.C. Romero, LH Reliever; May: Mike Jackson, RH Aging Former Closer

New York Yankees: Mike Stanton, LH Reliever
4-1 on 34:18 K:BB in 57 IP over 54 G with 54 H, 4 HR, and a 3.16 ERA.

Stanton has basically stopped dominating hitters this year as his 5.4 K/9 is 2.2 K/9 below his career level and 3.9 K/9 worse than his average of the last two seasons. A .96 G-F also continues his scary six-year trend of decreasing G-F ratios, which suggests his homer rate could abruptly rise at any time. Both his walk and hit rates are near his career averages, so at least he won't damage your WHIP, but I definitely see troublesome signs in his stat line. Explore a deal, especially if the owners of Rivera and/or Karsay would like to increase their chances for Yankee saves.

June Overachiever: David Wells, LH Starter
Old stats: 7-5 on 67:29 K:BB in 99.2 IP over 15 GS with 95 H, 7 HR, and a 3.61 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 5-0 on 30:4 K:BB in 40.2 IP over 5 GS with 48 H, 6 HR, and a 3.76 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter; May: Ted Lilly, LH Swingman

Oakland: Chad Bradford, RH Reliever
4-2 on 39:7 K:BB in 54.1 IP over 50 G with 44 H, 1 HR, and a 1.99 ERA.

Bradford has dominated in both AAA and the majors over the last two seasons, but a sub-2.00 ERA over this many innings is still a surprise to me. His exceptional skills at least support his production, although his 6.5 K/9 is lower than we expected. However, with a 5.6 K:BB and 3.31 G-F, I don't see any reason he can't maintain his current effectiveness. If he's easily obtainable in your league, he's certainly worth the necessary effort to acquire.

June Overachiever: Aaron Harang, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-2 on 33:19 K:BB in 35.2 IP over 6 GS with 25 H, 2 HR, and a 2.02 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 14:6 K:BB in 13.2 IP over 3 GS with 24 H, 2 HR, and a 7.90 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Billy Koch, RH Closer; May: Mike Venafro, LH Reliever

Seattle: Jamie Moyer, LH Starter
10-4 on 96:31 K:BB in 157.1 IP over 23 GS with 124 H, 19 HR, and a 2.86 ERA.

One of the best command pitchers of the last decade continues to provide veteran stability for a relatively unproven rotation that relies on his consistency. Moyer's current 34355 five-start PQS log supports that assessment and suggests he should remain an effective pitcher at least through the end of this season. A 3.1 K:BB is very solid for a 39-year-old, and his 5.5 K/9, while objectively poor, is still superior to his career average. He's allowed between 21 and 24 homers each of the last six seasons, and his 1.00 G-F, a slight improvement from 2001, suggests he can maintain that trend. An excellent 7.1 H/9, one hit per game less than last season despite almost the identical defense behind him, is only one more indication of his strength. Contenders should definitely attempt to acquire Moyer for the stretch run.

June Overachiever: John Halama, LH Swingman
Old stats: 2-2 on 37:15 K:BB in 50 IP over 16 G(4GS) with 45 H, 3 HR, and a 2.52 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 16:8 K:BB in 29 IP over 7 G(2GS) with 37 H, 4 HR, and a 3.41 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RH Reliever; May: Kazuhiro Sasaki, RH Closer

Tampa Bay: Joe Kennedy, LH Starter
6-8 on 89:34 K:BB in 139.1 IP over 21 GS with 149 H, 17 HR, and a 4.52 ERA.

Kennedy has now made one more start this year than during his 2001 debut season, so we can easily compare these stats with his previous numbers. His 2.6 K:BB is a nice improvement from last year's 2.3 even as his strikeout rate is slightly down to 5.7 K/9 after a 6.0, showing that he's developing more command by decreasing his walk rate to 2.2 from 2002's 2.6 BB/9. Although both his hit and homer rates appear nearly identical, his .85 G-F is a decrease from last year's already troubling .97, so I expect at least a short-term rise in his homer rate. Kennedy's 42004 five-start PQS log demonstrates his worrisome consistency problems, so contenders should probably explore a deal as he's far more likely to improve next season than during 2002.

June Overachiever: Travis Harper, RH Swingman
Old stats: 2-3 on 26:9 K:BB in 36.2 IP over 14 G(3GS) with 33 H, 6 HR, and a 3.44 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-3 on 19:6 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 9 G(1GS) with 20 H, 2 HR, and a 4.24 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Wilson, RH Starter; May: Steve Kent, LH Reliever

Texas: Francisco Cordero, RH Reliever
3 Saves on 19:7 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 16 G with 18 H, 2 HR, and a 2.95 ERA.

Between the first month of the season and his rehab assignment, he posted a 21:7 K:BB in 12.1 IP at AAA, clearly dominating minor league hitters even while allowing fifteen hits and two homers. Cordero should struggle at times, but he was highly touted in the minors as a future closer and the Rangers lack even a reasonable alternative, not to mention any clearly superior hurlers. While all his skills seem solid, his 1.81 G-F is an incredible improvement over his .83 average prior to this season. I think he's a risk, but he could put up better numbers than some first-tier closers before the end of the season, and you can probably acquire him at a reduced rate considering he's only pitched one game since returning from his DL trip.

June Overachiever: Hideki Irabu, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-7 and 14 Saves on 26:13 K:BB in 42 IP over 33 G(2GS) with 46 H, 11 HR, and a 5.79 ERA.

Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 and 2 Saves on 4:3 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 5.40 ERA before hitting the DL with blood clots in his lungs.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kenny Rogers, LH Starter; May: Ismael Valdes, RH Starter

Toronto: Roy Halladay, RH Starter
12-4 on 118:37 K:BB in 156.2 IP over 22 GS with 141 H, 7 HR, and a 2.82 ERA.

Only Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez have pitched significantly better than Halladay among AL starters, as the Blue Jays' rather radical 2001 plan of returning him to A-ball last year and having him work his way back to the majors likely has succeeded beyond anyone's expectations. Rany Jazayerli wrote a great article about Halladay's historical improvement back in March in which he calculated an "improvement ratio" of K/9 and BB/9, taking a weighted averaged similar to the Power-Speed number. He concluded that Halladay improved more last year, relative to his prior career average in these ratios, than any pitcher throughout major league history. The nine seasons immediately below Halladay include two years by Randy Johnson(1995 and 1993), Pedro Martinez's 1999, Hall of Famer Hal Newhouser, and even Todd Van Poppel's 1995 and Duane Ward's 1991. Considering Halladay's fantastic performance this year, including a current five-start PQS log of 44354. With a 2.63 G-F, a 3.2 K:BB, and 6.8 K/9 that are still very good even if not up to last year's standards, Halladay may be the most affordable ace available in most leagues; every team should seek to acquire him.

June Overachiever: Scott Cassidy, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-1 on 27:18 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 27 G with 20 H, 4 HR, and a 4.54 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 7:4 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 12 G with 13 H, 4 HR, and a 7.15 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Corey Thurman, RH Reliever; May: Pete Walker, RH Swingman

Today's Fantasy Rx: While this partially runs counters to yesterday's Rx regarding spending your FAAB now to maximize your advantage in acquiring players, don't be upset if your team wasn't active today. A lot of high-salaried veterans will slip through waivers, so even if you're ready to form the mob to evict you team's GM for not moving that one pending free agent who you're sure would bring a top prospect in return, there's still a good chance a few veterans will be dealt for reasonable returns before the playoff roster deadline on August 31st.