Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.

Arizona: Steve Finley, OF
89/317 for .281/.370/.473 with 14 HR, 53 RBI, 51 R, 12/15 SB%, and a 43:47 BB:K.

We definitely didn't expect Finley to post his fourth highest career OPS at age thirty-seven after he slipped from a .905 in 2000 to a .767 in 2001. He's not only hit as many homers and stolen more bases than he did last season, he's supporting his .281 BA with a .91 BB:K, the second best plate discipline mark of his career. Both Finley's .14 walk rate and 3.74 #P/PA are his best rates ever, and a 1.03 G-F is his second-best career ratio. A couple of magazines have featured him very prominently in articles discussing ballplayers' fitness regimens, and Finley's off-season work certainly has paid off this season. He's more at risk for both deteriorating production and injury problems because of his advanced age, but these are very solid all-around skills, making it easy for me to recommend you acquire Finley if you need outfield help.

June Overachiever: Quinton McCracken, OF
Old stats: 42/108 for .389/.426/.602 with 1 HR, 9 RBI, 19 R, 3/5 SB%, and a 7:20 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 22/83 for .265 with 0 HR, 12 RBI, 17 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 15:17 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Junior Spivey, 2B; May: Damian Miller, C

Atlanta: Julio Franco, ageless 1B
56/204 for .275/.345/.377 with 3 HR, 19 RBI, 31 R, 3/4 SB%, and a 23:42 BB:K.

While he supposedly only turns 41 next month, he's played eighteen years in the majors and at least twenty-four straight years of professional baseball. His 3.90 #P/PA and .11 walk rate are quite respectable, although his .55 BB:K, .79 contact rate, and 2.71 G-F indicate little to no upside for Franco. We're seeing the extent of his current production potential, and while he's still a viable bench player, Atlanta must replace their firm of Helms, Franco, & Franco at first base with someone who improves the offense. The elder Franco could be out of a job at any time, so see if you can deal him to some team beset by injuries.

June Overachiever: Matt Franco, UT
Old stats: 12/33 for .364/.417/.667 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 4 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 3:7 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 22/59 for .373 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 7:11 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Andruw Jones, OF; May: Mark DeRosa, Smited Usurping IF

Chicago Cubs: Fred McGriff, 1B
98/362 for .271/.358/.508 with 22 HR, 72 RBI, 47 R, 1/3 SB%, and a 49:61 BB:K.

He should cruise to his sixth career season with 30 homers and 100 RBI and his twelfth season reaching either mark. Both McGriff's .83 contact rate and .78 G-F are the best ratios of his seventeen major league seasons, and his .80 BB:K indicates his best plate discipline in a decade. While his .14 walk rate and 3.71 #P/PA are slightly below his career averages, they remain solid on their own, suggesting that McGriff has definitely reached a late-career power surge. In a year filled with several disappointments at first base in the NL, McGriff's excellent skills make him a top candidate to acquire if you need power.

June Overachiever: Mark Bellhorn, IF
Old stats: 29/132 for .225/.351/.481 with 8 HR, 22 RBI, 21 R, 4/5 SB%, and a 23:55 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire him if you can afford the BA hit to gain power and speed.
Stats since recommendation: 35/99 for .354 with 8 HR, 12 RBI, 27 R, 1/3 SB%, and a 17:24 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Corey Patterson, OF; May: Sammy Sosa, OF

Cincinnati: Aaron Boone, 3B
96/386 for .249/.323/.412 with 14 HR, 52 RBI, 52 R, 21/26 SB%, and 36:63 BB:K.

Manager's kids receive significant benefits at every level of organized ball, and Aaron's taken full advantage of his perpetual green light to compensate for his troublesome BA with an incredible burst of speed. He did grab 17 bags back in 1999, as well as 20+ in two seasons spent largely in the minors, so he just hadn't attempted many steals the last two years. We're also seeing positive development at the plate, since his .57 BB:K, .09 walk rate, and .84 walk rate are all career-highs. So not only is he on pace for an easy 20/30 season, his BA should begin increasing soon. He'll continue to play nearly every day with the Reds in contention, leaving you little reason not to acquire Bret and Matt's brother if you need any offensive help.

June Overachiever: Austin Kearns, OF
50/176 for .284/.395/.472 with 8 HR, 28 RBI, 29 R, 1/2 SB%, and a 27:50 BB:K.

Recommendation: acquire him if rebuilding.
Stats since recommendation: 30/101 for .297 with 0 HR, 12 RBI, 15 R, 5/5 SB%, and 11:11 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Encarnacion, OF; May: Corky Miller, C

Colorado: Larry Walker, OF
120/332 for .361/.440/.651 with 22 HR, 75 RBI, 71 R, 5/9 SB%, and a 44:50 BB:K.

None of these stats seem that extraordinary for Larry, but he's played in the vast majority of the Rockies' games without hitting the DL, and since he's already thirty-five, his 2002 performance is mildly surprising. His .88 BB:K, .13 walk rate, and .85 contact rate are at least superior to his career averages, although his 3.33 #P/PA and 1.49 G-F both show signs of decline. While he'll remain a dominant offensive force as long as he stays in the lineup for the Rockies, historical trends suggest you should only wait if you need his offense, and there's nothing wrong with dealing him for a younger player, like perhaps Adam Dunn if you want to trade BA for steals.

June Overachiever: Todd Hollandsworth, OF
Old stats: 62/211 for .294/.352/.498 with 9 HR, 36 RBI, 29 R, 5/12 SB%, and a 19:49 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 25/86 for .291 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 10 R, 2/3 SB%, and a 7:22 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Uribe, SS; May: Bobby Estalella, C

Florida: Andy Fox, SS
72/282 for .255/.329/.330 with 1 HR, 25 RBI, 34 R, 22/27 SB%, and a 30:63 BB:K.

Perhaps Jeff Torborg's primary tendency when managing is to emphasize stolen bases on offense. We suspected Castillo, Preston Wilson, and even Eric Owens would have great year, but Fox took advantage of Alex Gonzalez's season-ending injury to provide a nice SB boost for his owners. All of Fox's skills are relatively near his career averages, so only his increased playing time forces his value higher. We can probably expect him to steal another half-dozen bases this year without contributing in any other categories, as the Marlins don't appear comfortable playing Pablo Ozuna at short this season, leaving them with no acceptable alternative; acquire Fox if you need speed.

June Overachiever: Luis Castillo, 2B
Old stats: 95/284 for .335/.390/.394 with 2 HR, 17 RBI, 44 R, 25/33 SB%, and a 24:40 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 38/122 for .311 with 0 HR, 10 RBI, 16 R, 8/12 SB%, and a 14:14 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Mike Lowell, 3B; May: Eric Owens, OF

Houston: Geoff Blum, 3B
59/225 for .262/.333/.409 with 5 HR, 32 RBI, 28 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 24:36 BB:K.

After Houston picked him up from Montreal in exchange for Chris Truby, Jimy Williams apparently summarily decided that Blum would start at third and Morgan Ensberg, regardless of his either short-term or long-term potential, wouldn't play on his Astros. Blum's already over the number of at-bats he'd find on a good team in a full season. His 3.70 #P/PA is the worst mark of his career, and his .95 G-F is only at his career norm. Although his plate discipline has returned closer to his 1999 rookie year than the sub-.50 BB:K of the last two years, he's not either an especially patient or disciplined hitter. He won't contribute anything to your roster other than limited quantitative stats, so look to deal him to any owner desperate for even semi-productive at-bats.

June Overachiever: Jose Vizcaino, IF
Old stats: 45/146 for .308/.350/.363 with 1 HR, 11 RBI, 19 R, 2/5 SB%, and a 9:15 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 20/76 for .263 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 10 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 3:9 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Daryle Ward, OF; May: Lance Berkman, OF

Los Angeles: Marquis Grissom, OF
50/188 for .266/.314/.489 with 10 HR, 37 RBI, 28 R, 3/3 SB%, and 13:40 BB:K.

Few platoons have worked out nearly as well as the Dodgers' deployment of Grissom and Dave Roberts in center. Roberts excels leading off most games, and Grissom supplies extra power against left-handers. Even as Grissom's speed has disappeared, he's somehow managed to post the best OPS of his fourteen-year career. Over the last five years, his OPS is a hundred points higher against left-handed pitchers, so this platoon properly utilizes his few remaining skills. A .08 walk rate is better than his career average, although a .79 contact rate, far below his .85 average, suggests he'll struggle to hold even a .250 average. Only the combination of career-best marks of 4.01 #P/PA and 1.05 G-F has enabled him to regain some of his lost roto value. He should continue at close to his current pace, although contenders should only wait if they can't upgrade to a full-time starter.

June Overachiever: Alex Cora, IF
Old stats: 23/72 for .319/.355/.556 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 12 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 2:15 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 14/54 for .259 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 7 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 4:5 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Eric Karros, 1B; May: Dave Roberts, OF

Milwaukee: Robert Machado, C
36/133 for .271/.344/.436 with 3 HR, 20 HR, 14 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 15:30 BB:K.

He appears to start against left-hander starters, and his year-long spate of productivity is surprising after six seasons of dreadful offensive numbers. He's currently setting career highs in practically every statistic listed above, as well as showing surprising patience by seeing 3.66 #P/PA. Machado's .5 BB:K and .11 walk rate aren't impressive on their own merits, but both are much better than his respective .28 and .06 career rates prior to 2002. Unfortunately I don't find much to like here even with the skill improvements. He's an acceptable $1 catcher but contenders need someone with a better skill foundation. Deal Machado on the basis of these outwardly decent numbers if you have any chance to upgrade the position.

June Overachiever: Tyler Houston, 3B
Old stats: 65/186 for .349/.390/.559 with 7 HR, 32 RBI, 23 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 9:27 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 17/80 for .213 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 5:17 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jose Hernandez, SS; May: Alex Sanchez, OF

Montreal: Andres Galarraga, 1B
45/157 for .387/.387/.420 with 5 HR, 20 RBI, 16 R, 1/3 SB%, and a 20:43 BB:K.

Despite turning 41 on June 18th, Galaragga remains the best first base option on the Expos' major league roster, a fact that appears more indicative of Omar Minaya's incompetence as a GM than of Galaragga's production potential. His OBP remains relatively helpful, but with only two great players in the lineup in Vlad and Vidro, Montreal needs an upgrade here to contend. Fortunately his .13 walk rate and 3.85 #P/PA, both the best marks of his seventeen-year career, support his surprising BA and OBP. A weak .73 contact rate doesn't offer any hope for overall improvement, and while his age and injury history indicate that contenders should deal him to upgrade, your team won't suffer from owning Galaragga. June Overachiever: Troy O'Leary, OF
Old stats: 34/105 for .324/.388/.467 with 2 HR, 18 RBI, 12 R, 1/2 SB%, and a 9:21 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 9/44 for .205 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 3:8 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Michael Barrett, C; May: Jose Vidro, 2B

New York Mets: Jay Payton, OF
78/271 for .288/.340/.421 with 8 HR, 31 RBI, 33 R, 4/5 SB%, and a 21:34 BB:K.

He's picked up playing time from the terribly disappointing Roger Cedeno and Jeromy Burnitz, as he's lost much of his originally designated playing time to Timo Perez. While Payton's limited skill history and injury problems will keep him from ever excelling in the majors, he's rebounded back to his 2000 form after a wasted 2001 season. Both his .62 BB:K and .08 walk rate are easily the best marks of his career, and his 1.21 G-F is a welcome improvement from last season's 1.59. The combination of Payton's improving plate discipline and power potential indicates that he'll nearly reach his value from 2000, and he could be a very interesting keeper if he can maintain his current pace. Acquire Payton if rebuilding, and you might be surprised at the production he provides.

June Overachiever: Vance Wilson, C
Old stats: 18/73 for .247/.286/.356 with 1 HR, 12 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 1:12 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 8/31 for .258 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 2:5 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B; May: Timo Perez, OF

Philadelphia: Marlon Anderson, 2B
102/370 for .276/.328/.403 with 6 HR, 37 RBI, 45 R, 3/4 SB%, and a 26:52 BB:K.

While his stats and value aren't as good as last season, Anderson's racking up a lot of at-bats and seems to have his lineup slot solidified. However now that the Phillies have added Placido Polanco in the Rolen deal, Anderson suddenly looks very vulnerable with Jimmy Rollins not going anywhere and two impressive prospects ready to push Polanco to second. All of Anderson's skills are fairly close to his career marks except for his G-F, which has fallen from 2.20 in 2000 to 1.89 last year and now 1.68 this season. He still seems capable of succeeding in a full-time role, but Anderson may have more success as a utilityman after he leaves Philadelphia like his former double play partner Desi Relaford. If contending, you need to deal Anderson now for someone with less direct threats to his playing time, especially if Anderson might appear to be a decent keeper at the moment to some owners.

June Overachiever: Todd Pratt, C
Old stats: 19/50 for .380/.476/.520 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 10:14 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 4/19 for .211 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 3:5 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jason Michaels, OF; May: Pat Burrell, OF

Pittsburgh: Adam Hyzdu, OF
19/51 for .373/.459/.667 with 5 HR, 15 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 5:15 BB:K.

Similar to Raul Ibanez's early July breakout, Hyzdu packaged a decent season for some players into two days against the Cardinals, going 7/10 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 6 R. His recent MLEs indicate that he could easily hit twenty homers given five hundred at-bats in a season, and in only 141 career at-bats, he already has 11 dingers and 28 RBI. Prorated to 500 at-bats, they suggest Hyzdu could reach the 40 HR/100 RBI level of production. The glaring problem is that despite solid walk rate at every level, he also strikes out a lot, and he's unlikely to hold a major league BA much above .250. His playing time will also likely decrease as his BA drops, creating a cumulative effect that will lower his power numbers. He definitely has solid potential if given time to prove himself, but as he turned 30 in June, even the Pirates might not provide that opportunity. See if you can deal Hyzdu to a rebuilding team before his OPS falls under 1.000.

June Overachiever: Brian Giles, OF
Old stats: 74/240 for .308/.432/.608 with 17 HR, 42 RBI, 43 R, 9/12 SB%, and a 47:36 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 29/103 for .282 with 11 HR, 24 RBI, 21 R, 1/2 SB%, and a 30:13 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jack Wilson, SS; May: Rob Mackowiak, UT

San Diego: Ron Gant, OF
48/179 for .268/.351/.497 with 10 HR, 38 RBI, 35 R, 2/7 SB%, and a 24:33 BB:K.

The 37-year-old part-time outfielder is posting his best OPS since 1996 and his best batting average in 1995. His .73 BB:K, .13 walk rate, and 3.98 #P/PA all are above his career norms, and a .71 G-F is his best mark in over a decade. He's split both the last two years between different teams, and I fully expect him to leave San Diego, possibly with a few other veterans like Steve Reed and Mike Holtz, as Kevin Towers continues replenishing an already deep farm system. Gant appears able to maintain his current pace, but especially if your league doesn't allow you to keep players dealt to the AL, look to package Gant in a deal for someone with more reliable playing time.

June Overachiever: Deivi Cruz, IF
Old stats: 59/241 for .245/.285/.353 with 4 HR, 24 RBI, 20 R, 1/3 SB%, and a 13:28 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 32/102 for .314 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 13 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 3:7 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Sean Burroughs, 3B; May: Ryan Klesko, 1B/OF

San Francisco: Damon Minor, IF
34/134 for .254/.353/.515 with 10 HR, 21 RBI, 20 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 19:24 BB:K.

We knew he could produce if given the opportunity, but Dusty Baker always appears inclined to favor veterans and defense when composing his late-season lineups. Both those factors favor J.T. Snow over Minor, although Minor certainly offers the Giants a better chance to win most games because of his offensive upside. Not too many managers would bench someone who owns an .868 OPS and can handle first and third. While he's exceeded our OPS expectations, his BA appears low considering his .79 BB:K and .14 walk rate. He might finish the year closer to .280 than .250, and a .98 G-F ratio suggests he'll also maintain his power production. Explore a deal as a hedge against reduced playing time, although there's nothing wrong with using Minor to fill your UT or even your corner slot if you have solid starters at the other positions.

June Overachiever: Marvin Benard, OF
Old stats: 33/107 for .308/.357/.449 with 1 HR, 11 RBI, 15 R, 5/6 SB%, and a 7:22 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1/9 for .111 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 0:1 BB:K before hitting the DL with torn cartilage in his left knee.

Previous Overachievers: April: David Bell, 3B; May: Benito Santiago, C

St. Louis: Mike DiFelice, C
30/113 for .265/.306/.416 with 3 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 6:27 BB:K.

We still fail to understand why any manager would start either Mike Matheny or DeFelice over someone like Marrero. Along with his personal problems like the nightclub incident last year, DeFelice offers limited upside and incredible BA downside due to extremely poor skills. Only his .16 BB:K last year was worse than this season's .22 mark, and a .05 walk rate won't keep anyone above replacement value. A four year trend of decreasing G-F ratios, culminating in 2002's .86, suggests he's developing his limited power skills, but I don't see much of a difference between a $1 catcher with a bad BA and six homers versus a $1 catcher with a bad BA and seven homers. Deal or cut DeFelice now before his BA sinks back to his .243 career average, leaving you with a potential loss on your minimum investment.

June Overachiever: Albert Pujols, 3B/OF
Old stats: 76/268 for .284/.381/.537 with 16 HR, 50 RBI, 55 R, 1/2 SB%, and a 37:31 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 32/108 for .296 with 7 HR, 26 RBI, 23 R, 1/2 SB%, and a 17:13 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Eli Marrero, C/OF; May: Fernando Vina, 2B

Today's Fantasy Rx: In one of our NL keeper leagues this year, we've spent a combined $47 of FAAB to acquire Jeremy Giambi($19), Chuck Finley($21), Kenny Lofton($5), Sandy Alomar($1), and Paul Shuey($1). The interesting aspect of these moves is that there wasn't a single losing bid for any of these players. We can understand the hesitation to acquire Giambi considering his limited playing time, but what's wrong with the other four players? You know we really like Finley and were surprised at the lack of interest we've seen for him. Lofton should steal at least a half dozen bases for San Francisco, and we're desperate for steals. Alomar will earn his dollar if he can stay healthy through the end of next week. If he stays healthy through the end of the year, he'll wind up as one of the most productive NL catchers. Finally, Shuey has always owned one of the best skills sets in baseball, and if Gagne, whom we also own in this league, breaks down due to overuse, Shuey should close for the Dodgers. He also could earn $5+ in ERA/WHIP help alone.

Several articles on the sites we regularly visit have discussed the likelihood of high-salaried players slipping through waivers as teams fear getting stuck with the next Randy Myers like the Padres in 1998. So what? Even if some top names don't get claimed, don't get traded within their league, and don't struggle if moved to the other league, we're still gaining an extra couple weeks of stats over owners who've saved their FAAB. Despite our belief that there's a real chance to avoid an extended work stoppage, if the owners' hardheadedness causes a problem with the completion of the season, players acquired now will appear in a far greater percentage of games than anyone dealt immediately prior to September. Grab these guys now if you either need to make a run for it, or even if you just want to pick up a very good keeper for next year in a cheap Paul Shuey.