Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Adam Kennedy, 2B
88/295 for .298/.332/.424 with 2 HR, 27 RBI, 41 R, 9/12 SB%, and a 11:46 BB:K.

Kennedy's somehow posting the highest BA of his career at .290, even continuing a three-year trend of improving BA, while seeing his plate discipline plummet to its current .24 BB:K. A .04 walk rate is also his worst mark since his first season with the Cardinals. Neither his 3.72 #P/PA or .83 G-F are noticeably different from last year's numbers, and a .84 contact rate, also down from a .85 last year and .88 in 2000, offers little hope for him to maintain his current average. Kennedy will be lucky to earn double-digit value this year, so deal him before his poor skills drag down his currently decent stats.

June Overachiever: Jose Nieves, IF
Old stats: 23/77 for .299/.308/.325 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 13 R, 0/1 SB%, and a 1:13 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 5/20 for .250 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 4 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 1:1 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Garrett Anderson, OF; May: Orlando Palmeiro, OF

Baltimore: Gary Matthews, Jr., OF
71/255 for .278/.353/.431 with 5 HR, 25 RBI, 41 R, 13/17 SB%, and a 30:53 BB:K.

Little Sarge barely compiled a .227 BA and .706 OPS last year, and now he's emerged as a regular in a surprisingly effective Baltimore offense. Unfortunately his skills don't support any of this growth, as his .57 BB:K and .12 walk rate aren't even as good as last year's .60 BB:K and .15 walk rate. His 2.07 G-F is a sharp increase from his 1.56 career mark, and his 3.62 #P/PA is also over .25 below his career average. Only a .79 contact rate slightly over his .79 norm suggests any improvement, and I suspect that will also regress to his mean. With younger and better players now requiring more playing time in the Baltimore outfield, deal Matthews now before he stops starting at all.

June Overachiever: Melvin Mora, UT
Old stats: 64/255 for .251/.349/.424 with 9 HR, 29 RBI, 45 R, 11/17 SB%, and a 30:48 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 28/109 for .257 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 12 R, 2/2 SB%, and a 9:18 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Marty Cordova, OF/DH; May: Geronimo Gil, C

Boston: Jason Varitek, C
89/306 for .291/.360/.428 with 7 HR, 38 RBI, 44 R, 3/4 SB%, and a 28:53 BB:K.

We didn't expect Varitek to play nearly this often in 2002 after missing over two-thirds of last season on the DL. His performance is actually below our expectations, but the extra playing time has enabled him to hold his value. He won't be able to hold a .291 BA with a .53 BB:K, the worst ratio since his rookie year in 1998. Varitek's 3.60 #P/PA is also below his 3.77 mark of the last two years, so while he's maintaining his value and will remain one of the better AL catchers, he doesn't appear likely to improve this year. Wait for the moment unless you need to move him to address problems elsewhere.

June Overachiever: Carlos Baerga, IF
Old stats: 34/115 for .296/.325/.417 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 15 R, 4/4 SB%, and a 5:12 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 6/20 for .300 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 2/2 SB%, and a 2:2 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Shea Hillenbrand, 3B; May: Brian Daubach, 1B/OF/DH

Chicago White Sox: Sandy Alomar, Jr., C
48/167 for .287/.309/.485 with 7 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 5:14 BB:K.

Alomar's experienced a small resurgence at age 36, posting his best OPS in more than 150 AB since his career year in 1997. Now moving to the Rockies to replace Bobby Estalella, he'll have the chance to post one of the best homer totals of his career if he stays healthy. A 1.06 G-F indicates his best power skills in a decade, and a 3.40 #P/PA is slightly above average for him. His .03 walk rate is as poor as ever, although a .92 contact rate will keep his average above his .275 career norm. As his limited at-bats also hold back his value, don't overspend when looking to acquire catching help in NL leagues.

June Overachiever: Paul Konerko, 1B
Old stats: 91/280 for .325/.368/.546 with 16 HR, 62 RBI, 38 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 18:36 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 32/102 for .314 with 6 HR, 17 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 12:11 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kenny Lofton, OF; May: Tony Graffanino, IF

Cleveland: Jim Thome, 1B
86/303 for .284/.420/.630 with 31 HR, 73 RBI, 55 R, 0/2 SB%, and a 69:90 BB:K.

Even with the dismantling of the Indians and lack of much lineup support, Thome continues to produce at the level commensurate with any power hitter in the game. He'll likely never have a great BA again, but his .77 BB:K and .23 walk rate are both above his career rates. Even more impressively, his .92 G-F is the best mark of his career and continues a three-year trend of increased power. If you need a dominant power hitter without top BA, Thome is a perfect target to acquire.

June Overachiever: John McDonald, IF
Old stats: 19/68 for .279/.319/.397 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 3:20 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 12/48 for .250 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 11:22 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Vizquel; May: Matt Lawton, OF

Detroit: George Lombard, OF
32/108 for .296/.339/.528 with 4 HR, 8 RBI, 18 R, 5/7 SB%, and a 6:30 BB:K.

After missing most of the last two seasons with various injuries, Lombard finally found a way out of Atlanta and into a situation where a team desperate for a quality centerfielder will give him an extended look. He'll retain definite value as long as he starts due to his great speed. However he'll begin damaging your BA as a .20 BB:K and .06 walk rate do not indicate a skills set capable of supporting an average around .300. The one surprise here in his stats is a 1.15 G-F, indicative of the power potential we'd expect from an established five-tool prospect. If someone will overpay for the speed, explore a possible deal, as despite his superb upside, I'm concerned about his 2002 value.

June Overachiever: Ramon Santiago, SS
Old stats: 31/120 for .258/.323/.450 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, 23 R, 4/8 SB%, and a 8:29 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 18/79 for .228 with 0 HR, 9 RBI, 10 R, 2/3 SB%, and a 4:16 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Randall Simon, 1B/DH; May: Wendell Magee, OF

Kansas City: Raul Ibanez, DH
77/277 for .278/.334/.879 with 14 HR, 66 RBI, 40 R, 3/5 SB%, and a 23:43 BB:K.

Ibanez had a very nice season on July 14th and 15th, going 5 for 12 with 2 HR, 13 RBI, and 4 runs. He's compiled 13 HR and 52 RBI in the last two months in one of the most unexpectedly dominant performances of the season. Nothing in his major league history suggests he'll maintain this pace, and none of his skill ratios significantly differ, positively or negatively, from his career averages. I can't imagine his value could increase beyond its current level, so deal him if you see an opportunity.

June Overachiever: A.J. Hinch, C
Old stats: 24/102 for .235/.310/.422 with 5 HR, 19 RBI, 12 R, 1/3 SB%, and a 9:16 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 8/38 for .211 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 3:9 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Randa, 3B; May: Michael Tucker, OF

Minnesota: Bobby Kielty, OF
63/192 for .328/.456/.992 with 8 HR, 35 RBI, 41 R, ¾ SB%, and a 41:43 BB:K.

No one expected Kielty to lead a team loaded with young prospective offensive studs in OPS, but the switch-hitting 25-year-old has made a strong case for Rookie of the Year in only part-time duty. After a weak .32 BB:K and .08 walk rate in 104 at-bats last season, he's maintained his excellent minor league skills in a larger role, posting a .95 BB:K and .21 walk rate this season. His 4.12 #P/PA and .98 G-F indicate both plate discipline and increased power potential, and he seems quite capable of finishing the year with at least a .900 OPS. If you need BA help with some power/speed upside, try to acquire Kielty, although don't overpay for a part-time stud.

June Overachiever: A.J. Pierzynski, C
Old stats: 68/212 for .321/.362/.500 with 4 HR, 27 RBI, 35 R, 1/2 SB%, and a 9:31 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 21/82 for .256 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 6 R, 0/1 SB%, and a 2:15 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Torii Hunter; May: Jacque Jones, OF

New York Yankees: Jorge Posada, C
86/324 for .265/.367/.506 with 17 HR, 71 RBI, 57 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 53:94 BB:K.

While neither his stats nor skills approach his great 2000 season, he has a very good chance to post a career high in RBI, largely due to the benefits of hitting behind Jason Giambi. A 1.00 G-F continues a three-year trend of improving power, and his .16 walk rate is the third-best mark of his career. My only concern is both his .56 BB:K and .71 contact rate are down from his career levels, suggesting his BA drop might be permanent. Since it's not possible to improve upon his production potential at catcher, you need to wait in the hopes that he can break 100 RBI unless you can fix several other problems on your team in one deal.

June Overachiever: Ron Coomer, IF
Old stats: 21/61 for .344/.359/.541 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 2:10 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 5/18 for .278 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 3:4 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Alfonso Soriano, 2B; May: Robin Ventura, 3B

Oakland: John Mabry, OF
44/141 for .312/.333/.518 with 6 HR, 28 RBI, 16 R, 0/1 SB%, and a 5:26 BB:K.

Billy Beane still erred badly in both moving Jeremy Giambi and not receiving more in return. However as Beane and Art Howe demonstrated with Scott Hatteberg, they show a clear ability to place a position player in a role that allows the maximization of his potential. (The A's bullpen problems demonstrate that Beane & Co. lack this understanding of left-handed relievers.) Adding Durham, and potentially a second bat in the next few days, should limit Mabry's playing time rather severely unless the Athletics wrongly bench Mark Ellis, who offers similar offensive potential to Mabry and much more defensive consistency. Mabry's 2002 skills also don't support anything near this level of production. His .19 BB:K and .04 walk rate are well off even his normally poor career numbers, and his other skills are barely at those normal levels. Deal him now if you can find someone to give you anything in return for someone who should soon assume a starting position for the Athletics at left out.

June Overachiever: Miguel Tejada, SS
Old stats: 93/309 for .310/.339/.502 with 15 HR, 56 RBI, 52 R, 2/3 SB%, and a 14:36 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 33/125 for .264 with 8 HR, 27 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 7:16 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jeremy Giambi, OF; May: Scott Hatteberg, UT

Seattle: Ichiro Suzuki, OF
148/420 for .352/.419/.474 with 6 HR, 35 RBI, 75 R, 25/36 SB%, and a 47:36 BB:K.

After emerging as the most categorically dominant roto player since Rickey Henderson's prime, he's added great plate discipline to his arsenal, somehow developing into a more valuable player to the Mariners. Now he's started to show off some power with a .565 SLG since the All-Star break. However while his significantly improved 1.31 BB:K, .11 walk rate, and 3.61 #P/PA support his .350+ BA, a 2.61 G-F doesn't indicate much latent power potential. His SB% has also fallen from .80 last year to an unacceptable .69. We've definitely seen a shift in his skills this year, but while you should expect to receive slightly different benefits from owning him, there's no reason not to acquire Ichiro if available.

June Overachiever: Dan Wilson, C
Old stats: 50/158 for .316/.349/.418 with 3 HR, 23 RBI, 16 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 7:37 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 16/68 for .235 with 1 HR, 10 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 2:16 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Carlos Guillen, SS; May: Mark McLemore, UT

Tampa Bay: Chris Gomez, SS
80/321 for .249/.296/.393 with 7 HR, 31 RBI, 38 R, 0/2 SB%, and a 16:39 BB:K.

Reportedly he suddenly discovered he could generate more power prior to leaving the Padres last year by swinging harder to increase his bat speed. We expect his autobiography to include theories on "How to win baseball games (by scoring more runs than you allow)" and "The magickal forse that keeps my feet on the grovnd bvt allows base balls to soar in to the skye". After never posting a G-F ratio below 1.35 since his second season, he managed a 1.05 last season and currently holds a .88 mark. Of course none of his other skills show any improvement, and as his averages have actually fallen from both 2001 and his last healthy season in 1998, these stats suggest he's just flying out more instead of grounding out. If anyone is interested in adding his power to their team, feel free to deal Gomez for a ballplayer with some understanding of post-medieval physics.

June Overachiever: Aubrey Huff, DH/UT
Old stats: 29/95 for .305/.356/.484 with 5 HR, 11 RBI, 15 R, 2/3 SB%, and a 7:10 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 32/118 for .217 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, 12 R, 2/2 SB%, and a 12:18 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Randy Winn, OF; May: John Flaherty, C

Texas: Mike Lamb, 3B
59/202 for .292/.335/.391 with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 25 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 13:29 BB:K.

Lamb's 2002 BA, OBP, and SLG are a combined six points away from his combined career norms in all three. The only positive skill development here is that he's now seeing 3.65 #P/PA, up from his 3.47 norm, and his 1.08 G-F is a welcome improvement from his 1.35 average. He'll eventually develop double-digit homer power, but an .86 contact rate without strong plate discipline will not support an average around .300. I'd deal him for almost any available package, as his value could drop to nothing at any time due to the Rangers' repeated roster shuffling.

June Overachiever: Kevin Mench, OF
Old stats: 28/92 for .304/.393/.565 with 6 HR, 19 RBI, 19 R, 1/2 SB%, and a 12:19 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 21/92 for .228 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 4:20 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Hank Blalock, 3B; May: Herb Perry, 3B

Toronto: Josh Phelps, DH
24/82 for .293/.326/.309 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 3:24 BB:K.

The 24-year-old Anchorage native never demonstrated good plate discipline at any level, but we hoped he could at least approach his .12 AAA walk rate. Even if his power allows him to develop into a credible offensive threat despite an OBP likely below .350, he'll remain at risk for a sharp BA drop at any time. A 3.84 #P/PA and 1.14 G-F at least are good debut numbers for most prospects, but without even an average walk rate, we can't trust his 2002 production. Deal him if you're a contender to a team able to wait for the eventual power surge.

June Overachiever: Chris Woodward, IF
Old stats: 16/58 for .276/.333/.621 with 3 HR, 5 RBI, 11 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 5:14 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 17/55 for .309 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, 11 R, 1/1 SB%, and a 7:14 BB:K.

Previous Overachievers: April: Eric Hinske, 3B; May: Tom Wilson, C

Today's Fantasy Rx: Don't wait for deadline deals if you can pick up players in the next day or two. I'm not sure anyone will have more roto impact than Chuck Finley, and both Kenny Lofton and Paul Shuey look very appealing. If you need to spend your FAAB to add them now, you'll likely pick up better and more consistent players than might be available after Wednesday.