Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

Today concludes our two-day review of All-Star break splits. To qualify for consideration, a player must have 120 IP in both halves over the last five years, and show a change, positive or negative, of 0.75 ERA between the two halves, although I'm only concentrating on players with more dramatic changes. About 50 pitchers improved by at least that much, while over 30 declined by similar amounts.

Pitching Improvements

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of an improvement of at least 1.50 ERA before I list the remaining qualified players.

Kyle Farnsworth, RP, CHC: -3.74 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	16/75	141.2	177/32	130:70	3-11/0	6.67
2nd H	10/74	147.1	118/18	121:61	8-13/3	2.93

02 1st	0/17	15.2	13/1	17:7	2-1/0	4.60

Farnsworth appears recovered from his broken foot and ready to resume dominating in a setup or even closing role depending on the Cubs' moves with Alfonseca and Gordon. While his ERA isn't great so far, we can expect a severe improvement due to his excellent skills, including 9.8 K/9 and 2.4 K:BB. I suspect he'll approach double-digit roto value in the second half with solid ERA/WHIP, a few wins and saves, and even a useful contribution in strikeouts. He's certainly someone to acquire regardless of your team's standing.

Roy Halladay, SP, TOR: -3.04 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	22/35	145.2	186/18	79:82	9-8/1	6.67
2nd H	27/39	190.2	183/20	156:66	9-9/0	3.63

02 1st	17/17	122.2	118/5	99:26	9-4/0	3.15

While he's the most dominant pitcher in the American League thus far in 2002, Halladay appears primed for a Cy Young run if he can duplicate even a portion of his normal second half improvement. While he won't match his standard drop, an accomplishment that would require 81.2 innings with only one earned run, we definitely encourage any attempt to acquire Halladay if you need a starter. I see no reason why he won't continue to provide significant help to his owners for the rest of the year.

Mike Magnante, RP, OAK: -2.19 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	0/130	134.1	147/9	86:50	7-6/1	4.56
2nd H	0/131	129.1	116/7	80:43	9-6/2	2.37

02 1st	0/27	22.2	34/1	9:8	0-1/0	6.35

A gaudy 3.6 K/9 at least means he should be quite rested for the second half since he's not throwing enough pitches to either strike out or walk many batters. However given this rather abhorrent 1.1 K:BB, he's unlikely to repeat his standard improvement, and even if he somehow manages that remote task, a 4.16 ERA from a rarely-used middle reliever will help few teams. Deal or cut Magnante at your first opportunity.

Jose Mesa, RP, PHI: -1.97 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S   ERA
1st H	0/176	198.1	230/31	170:81	7-17/47 4.90
2nd H	0/171	187.1	182/10	147:86	15-9/46 2.93

02 1st	0/41	43	31/3	41:19	2-5/23  2.30

Joe Table continues to put impressive statistical distance between his current performance and his struggles from the 1997 playoffs through the 2001 season. I see nothing in these numbers not to like, although the probable dismantling of the Phillies will certainly weaken his supporting cast. However he'll still remain an effective closer, so look to acquire Mesa, as he should remain in town even if Ed Wade trades most of the other Philly vets.

John Thomson, SP, COL: -1.75 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S   ERA
1st H	33/34	183.2	223/25	125:71	7-20/0  6.13
2nd H	47/47	300	313/37	189:90	13-15/0 4.38

02 1st	18/18	116.1	123/19	69:22	7-8/0   4.87

Due to his recent struggles, I don't recommend Thomson in leagues where you can't bench him for most home starts. However he continues to demonstrate the solid skills of a very capable spot starter. Of course his ERA is actually higher on the road this year due to primarily to a higher homer rate, but I'll continue to trust any pitcher displaying a 3.1 K:BB. If you've already added him part-time to your rotation of starters, wait on Thomson since history suggests he might even manage a sub-4.00 ERA for the balance of the year.

Kelvim Escobar, RP, TOR: -1.70 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB    W-L/S    ERA
1st H	36/90	281.1	316/34	217:135 17-20/0  5.60
2nd H	39/94	309.1	266/25	283:137 23-19/16 3.90

02 1st	35/35	40.2	41/5	46:26   4-4/0    5.09

We're definitely disappointed in his performance this year, especially as we own him at a buck on a 5x5 team that we've needed to rebuild. There's no particular reason for Escobar's troublesome ERA this year other than him simply allowing too many baserunners, especially those via walk. Fortunately we can expect some improvement in the second half, so wait for him to rattle off a couple of saves in a row as Toronto finally faces some easier competition before exploring any trades.

Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD: -1.67 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S    ERA
1st H	0/174	181.1	152/21	222:52	9-10/102 3.33
2nd H	0/158	173	105/12	196:40	10-8/114 1.66

02 1st	0/3	33.1	30/1	39:13	1-1/20   2.46

While Hoffman might match his normal improvement, he's more likely to continue performing at his current excellent level. There isn't a single aspect of this skills' set not to like, and the great homer rate is supported by a .66 G-F, the second best mark of his career. If you need a stud closer, definitely look to acquire Hoffman.

Ryan Rupe, SP, TB: -1.66 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S   ERA
1st H	33/35	184	204/32	146:72	8-16/0  6.75
2nd H	35/35	192.2	214/34	135:64	10-11/0 5.09	

02 1st	14/14	87.2	79/11	67:22	5-9/0   5.54

Prior to missing the last month with a sore knee, Rupe displayed the across-the-board solid skill necessary for us to keep recommending him despite a bothersome ERA. While we'll leave him on the bench for the next week or so until we see him pitch effectively now that he's back, his 2002 performance, coupled with his historical trends, make him a very attractive target to acquire if you need starting help.

The following players qualified but posted an ERA improvement of less than 1.50: Alan Embree(-1.35 ERA), Joey Hamilton(-1.27), Albie Lopez(-1.25), Javier Vazquez(-1.25), Freddy Garcia(-1.16), Miguel Batista(-1.14), Steve Trachsel(-1.14), Keith Foulke(-.98), Omar Daal(-.96), Dave Burba(-.94), Andy Benes(-.93), Jamie Moyer(-.93), Gabe White(-.93), James Baldwin(-.92), Kevin Millwood(-.92), Vlad Nunez(-.91), Derek Lowe(-.89), Jay Witasick(-.89), Roberto Hernandez(-.87), Chan Ho Park(-.87), John Smoltz(-.83), Ramiro Mendoza(-.82), Shigetoshi Hasegawa(-.81), Tim Worrell(-.79), Octavio Dotel(-.78), Chuck Finley(-.78), and Todd Jones(-.78).

A few players qualified but are either injured or have spent little to no time in the majors this year, including Chris Peters(-2.02 ERA), Brian Bohanon(-2.00), Jose Mercedes(-1.77), Blake Stein(-1.66), Frank Rodriguez(-1.64), Scott Elarton(-1.61), Kevin Jarvis(-1.41), Dustin Hermanson(-1.35), Dave Mlicki(-1.33), Tim Crabtree(-1.30), Gil Heredia(-1.24), Darren Dreifort(-1.10), Mark Gardner(-1.08), Hector Carrasco(-1.03), and John Frascatore(-.97).

Pitching Declines

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of a decline of at least 1.50 ERA before I list the remaining qualified players.

Mike DeJean, RP, MIL: +2.15 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	1/169	205	213/22	107:89	14-6/2	3.56
2nd H	0/130	135.2	151/12	91:60	4-5/4	5.71

02 1st	0/39	44	38/5	39:25	0-3/15	3.48

With both his qualitative and pro-rated quantitative numbers relatively similar to his normal first half performance, the surprise here is the decent K rate and 15 saves. We continue to strongly believe that, barring the absence of Chad Fox, Luis Vizcaino and even Jayson Durocher would be a more logical choice for Brewers' saves, but unfortunately they seem determined to stick with DeJean. While I like aspects of his skills, I don't have faith that he can hold off the worst second half deterioration of any pitcher in baseball; deal him before Milwaukee realizes that DeJean no longer cuts the mustard.

Troy Percival, RP, ANA: +2.09 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S    ERA
1st H	0/159	156	98:14	161:65	13-14/99 2.65 
2nd H	0/134	127.1	106/16	176:64	7-11/72  4.74

02 1st	0/31	28.1	23/2	34:15	3-1/21   2.22

I'm quite surprised that closers and top setup men account for half of the most drastic ERA changes between the two halves. Percival generally maintains his skill levels in the second half but an ERA jump of 2.09 merits attention. Due to this consistent problem, he likely won't post an ERA below 3.00 and might even rise above 4.00. Look to deal him if someone else is interested in someone who's been one of the top closers of the season so far.

Jimmy Haynes, SP, CIN: +1.80 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB    W-L/S   ERA
1st H	73/74	450	156/50	254:211 27-27/0 4.50
2nd H	66/60	331.2	416/44	238:175 14-30/0 6.30

02 1st	18/18	109.1	122/14	69:39   10-7/0  4.28

He's won his last three starts while running a 34424 5-start PQS log, so I doubt his trade value will be higher at any point this season. Despite his superficially impressive numbers, his 5.7 K/9 and 1.8 K:BB are below acceptable levels and some of the best marks he's posted in the last few years. Deal him now, as other owners will see his double-digit wins and ERA near 4.00 while you know he's likely to destroy your ERA and WHIP over the balance of the season.

Dan Reichert, RP, KC: +1.70 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	 ERA
1st H	20/47	165.2	167/1	108:88	10-12/2 4.78
2nd H	25/32	147.1	169/13	83:102	8-8/0   6.48

02 1st	6/29	64.2	75/9	36:22	3-5/0   5.01

I covered him a little over a week ago as the worst of the Squashed JulyFlys, and his status hasn't changed since that article. Deal or cut Reichert at your first opportunity.

The following players qualified but posted an increase in their ERA of less than 1.50: Mark Guthrie(+1.42 ERA), Hideki Irabu(+1.33), Sean Lowe(+1.29), Jon Lieber(+1.27), Shawn Estes(+1.23), Mike Williams(+1.19), Paul Shuey(+1.07), Steve Karsay(+1.02), Terry Adams(+.99), Jarrod Washburn(+.92), Jeff Weaver(+.92), Mike Remlinger(+.89), Andy Ashby(+.84), Al Levine(+.78), Mike Stanton(+.85), and Bob Wickman(+.75).

A few players qualified but are either injured or have spent little to no time in the majors this year, including Wayne Gomes(+2.44 ERA), Ricky Bones(+1.81), Danny Patterson(+1.64), Jose Silva(+1.50), Mike Tombley(+1.18), Ricky Bottalico(+1.03), Amaury Telemaco(+1.02), Pete Schourek(+1.01), Alan Mills(+.96), Tom Gordon(+.84), Jim Parque(+.79), Mark Petkovsek(+.79), and Dennis Cook(+.78).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Other than the selected players discussed above, a few specific players from the larger lists at the end of each section require mention. Look to acquire the following players whose values should begin increasing: Alan Embree, Javier Vazquez, Freddy Garcia, Keith Foulke, Gabe White, Kevin Millwood, Vlad Nunez, Roberto Hernandez, Chan Ho Park, John Smoltz, and Chuck Finley. Also, look to deal the following players whose values may have plateaued: Jon Lieber, Mike Williams, Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Weaver, Mike Remlinger, Andy Ashby, and Bob Wickman.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.



Rotohelp		2002 Pitching at the Break by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx Today concludes our two-day review of All-Star break splits. To qualify for consideration, a player must have 120 IP in both halves over the last five years, and show a change, positive or negative, of 0.75 ERA between the two halves, although I'm only concentrating on players with more dramatic changes. About 50 pitchers improved by at least that much, while over 30 declined by similar amounts. Pitching Improvements I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of an improvement of at least 1.50 ERA before I list the remaining qualified players. Kyle Farnsworth, RP, CHC: -3.74 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 16/75 141.2 177/32 130:70 3-11/0 6.67 2nd H 10/74 147.1 118/18 121:61 8-13/3 2.93 02 1st 0/17 15.2 13/1 17:7 2-1/0 4.60 Farnsworth appears recovered from his broken foot and ready to resume dominating in a setup or even closing role depending on the Cubs' moves with Alfonseca and Gordon. While his ERA isn't great so far, we can expect a severe improvement due to his excellent skills, including 9.8 K/9 and 2.4 K:BB. I suspect he'll approach double-digit roto value in the second half with solid ERA/WHIP, a few wins and saves, and even a useful contribution in strikeouts. He's certainly someone to acquire regardless of your team's standing. Roy Halladay, SP, TOR: -3.04 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 22/35 145.2 186/18 79:82 9-8/1 6.67 2nd H 27/39 190.2 183/20 156:66 9-9/0 3.63 02 1st 17/17 122.2 118/5 99:26 9-4/0 3.15 While he's the most dominant pitcher in the American League thus far in 2002, Halladay appears primed for a Cy Young run if he can duplicate even a portion of his normal second half improvement. While he won't match his standard drop, an accomplishment that would require 81.2 innings with only one earned run, we definitely encourage any attempt to acquire Halladay if you need a starter. I see no reason why he won't continue to provide significant help to his owners for the rest of the year. Mike Magnante, RP, OAK: -2.19 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 0/130 134.1 147/9 86:50 7-6/1 4.56 2nd H 0/131 129.1 116/7 80:43 9-6/2 2.37 02 1st 0/27 22.2 34/1 9:8 0-1/0 6.35 A gaudy 3.6 K/9 at least means he should be quite rested for the second half since he's not throwing enough pitches to either strike out or walk many batters. However given this rather abhorrent 1.1 K:BB, he's unlikely to repeat his standard improvement, and even if he somehow manages that remote task, a 4.16 ERA from a rarely-used middle reliever will help few teams. Deal or cut Magnante at your first opportunity. Jose Mesa, RP, PHI: -1.97 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 0/176 198.1 230/31 170:81 7-17/47 4.90 2nd H 0/171 187.1 182/10 147:86 15-9/46 2.93 02 1st 0/41 43 31/3 41:19 2-5/23 2.30 Joe Table continues to put impressive statistical distance between his current performance and his struggles from the 1997 playoffs through the 2001 season. I see nothing in these numbers not to like, although the probable dismantling of the Phillies will certainly weaken his supporting cast. However he'll still remain an effective closer, so look to acquire Mesa, as he should remain in town even if Ed Wade trades most of the other Philly vets. John Thomson, SP, COL: -1.75 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 33/34 183.2 223/25 125:71 7-20/0 6.13 2nd H 47/47 300 313/37 189:90 13-15/0 4.38 02 1st 18/18 116.1 123/19 69:22 7-8/0 4.87 Due to his recent struggles, I don't recommend Thomson in leagues where you can't bench him for most home starts. However he continues to demonstrate the solid skills of a very capable spot starter. Of course his ERA is actually higher on the road this year due to primarily to a higher homer rate, but I'll continue to trust any pitcher displaying a 3.1 K:BB. If you've already added him part-time to your rotation of starters, wait on Thomson since history suggests he might even manage a sub-4.00 ERA for the balance of the year. Kelvim Escobar, RP, TOR: -1.70 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 36/90 281.1 316/34 217:135 17-20/0 5.60 2nd H 39/94 309.1 266/25 283:137 23-19/16 3.90 02 1st 35/35 40.2 41/5 46:26 4-4/0 5.09 We're definitely disappointed in his performance this year, especially as we own him at a buck on a 5x5 team that we've needed to rebuild. There's no particular reason for Escobar's troublesome ERA this year other than him simply allowing too many baserunners, especially those via walk. Fortunately we can expect some improvement in the second half, so wait for him to rattle off a couple of saves in a row as Toronto finally faces some easier competition before exploring any trades. Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD: -1.67 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 0/174 181.1 152/21 222:52 9-10/102 3.33 2nd H 0/158 173 105/12 196:40 10-8/114 1.66 02 1st 0/3 33.1 30/1 39:13 1-1/20 2.46 While Hoffman might match his normal improvement, he's more likely to continue performing at his current excellent level. There isn't a single aspect of this skills' set not to like, and the great homer rate is supported by a .66 G-F, the second best mark of his career. If you need a stud closer, definitely look to acquire Hoffman. Ryan Rupe, SP, TB: -1.66 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 33/35 184 204/32 146:72 8-16/0 6.75 2nd H 35/35 192.2 214/34 135:64 10-11/0 5.09 02 1st 14/14 87.2 79/11 67:22 5-9/0 5.54 Prior to missing the last month with a sore knee, Rupe displayed the across-the-board solid skill necessary for us to keep recommending him despite a bothersome ERA. While we'll leave him on the bench for the next week or so until we see him pitch effectively now that he's back, his 2002 performance, coupled with his historical trends, make him a very attractive target to acquire if you need starting help. The following players qualified but posted an ERA improvement of less than 1.50: Alan Embree(-1.35 ERA), Joey Hamilton(-1.27), Albie Lopez(-1.25), Javier Vazquez(-1.25), Freddy Garcia(-1.16), Miguel Batista(-1.14), Steve Trachsel(-1.14), Keith Foulke(-.98), Omar Daal(-.96), Dave Burba(-.94), Andy Benes(-.93), Jamie Moyer(-.93), Gabe White(-.93), James Baldwin(-.92), Kevin Millwood(-.92), Vlad Nunez(-.91), Derek Lowe(-.89), Jay Witasick(-.89), Roberto Hernandez(-.87), Chan Ho Park(-.87), John Smoltz(-.83), Ramiro Mendoza(-.82), Shigetoshi Hasegawa(-.81), Tim Worrell(-.79), Octavio Dotel(-.78), Chuck Finley(-.78), and Todd Jones(-.78). A few players qualified but are either injured or have spent little to no time in the majors this year, including Chris Peters(-2.02 ERA), Brian Bohanon(-2.00), Jose Mercedes(-1.77), Blake Stein(-1.66), Frank Rodriguez(-1.64), Scott Elarton(-1.61), Kevin Jarvis(-1.41), Dustin Hermanson(-1.35), Dave Mlicki(-1.33), Tim Crabtree(-1.30), Gil Heredia(-1.24), Darren Dreifort(-1.10), Mark Gardner(-1.08), Hector Carrasco(-1.03), and John Frascatore(-.97). Pitching Declines I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of a decline of at least 1.50 ERA before I list the remaining qualified players. Mike DeJean, RP, MIL: +2.15 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 1/169 205 213/22 107:89 14-6/2 3.56 2nd H 0/130 135.2 151/12 91:60 4-5/4 5.71 02 1st 0/39 44 38/5 39:25 0-3/15 3.48 With both his qualitative and pro-rated quantitative numbers relatively similar to his normal first half performance, the surprise here is the decent K rate and 15 saves. We continue to strongly believe that, barring the absence of Chad Fox, Luis Vizcaino and even Jayson Durocher would be a more logical choice for Brewers' saves, but unfortunately they seem determined to stick with DeJean. While I like aspects of his skills, I don't have faith that he can hold off the worst second half deterioration of any pitcher in baseball; deal him before Milwaukee realizes that DeJean no longer cuts the mustard. Troy Percival, RP, ANA: +2.09 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 0/159 156 98:14 161:65 13-14/99 2.65 2nd H 0/134 127.1 106/16 176:64 7-11/72 4.74 02 1st 0/31 28.1 23/2 34:15 3-1/21 2.22 I'm quite surprised that closers and top setup men account for half of the most drastic ERA changes between the two halves. Percival generally maintains his skill levels in the second half but an ERA jump of 2.09 merits attention. Due to this consistent problem, he likely won't post an ERA below 3.00 and might even rise above 4.00. Look to deal him if someone else is interested in someone who's been one of the top closers of the season so far. Jimmy Haynes, SP, CIN: +1.80 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 73/74 450 156/50 254:211 27-27/0 4.50 2nd H 66/60 331.2 416/44 238:175 14-30/0 6.30 02 1st 18/18 109.1 122/14 69:39 10-7/0 4.28 He's won his last three starts while running a 34424 5-start PQS log, so I doubt his trade value will be higher at any point this season. Despite his superficially impressive numbers, his 5.7 K/9 and 1.8 K:BB are below acceptable levels and some of the best marks he's posted in the last few years. Deal him now, as other owners will see his double-digit wins and ERA near 4.00 while you know he's likely to destroy your ERA and WHIP over the balance of the season. Dan Reichert, RP, KC: +1.70 ERA 97-01 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 20/47 165.2 167/1 108:88 10-12/2 4.78 2nd H 25/32 147.1 169/13 83:102 8-8/0 6.48 02 1st 6/29 64.2 75/9 36:22 3-5/0 5.01 I covered him a little over a week ago as the worst of the Squashed JulyFlys, and his status hasn't changed since that article. Deal or cut Reichert at your first opportunity. The following players qualified but posted an increase in their ERA of less than 1.50: Mark Guthrie(+1.42 ERA), Hideki Irabu(+1.33), Sean Lowe(+1.29), Jon Lieber(+1.27), Shawn Estes(+1.23), Mike Williams(+1.19), Paul Shuey(+1.07), Steve Karsay(+1.02), Terry Adams(+.99), Jarrod Washburn(+.92), Jeff Weaver(+.92), Mike Remlinger(+.89), Andy Ashby(+.84), Al Levine(+.78), Mike Stanton(+.85), and Bob Wickman(+.75). A few players qualified but are either injured or have spent little to no time in the majors this year, including Wayne Gomes(+2.44 ERA), Ricky Bones(+1.81), Danny Patterson(+1.64), Jose Silva(+1.50), Mike Tombley(+1.18), Ricky Bottalico(+1.03), Amaury Telemaco(+1.02), Pete Schourek(+1.01), Alan Mills(+.96), Tom Gordon(+.84), Jim Parque(+.79), Mark Petkovsek(+.79), and Dennis Cook(+.78). Today's Fantasy Rx: Other than the selected players discussed above, a few specific players from the larger lists at the end of each section require mention. Look to acquire the following players whose values should begin increasing: Alan Embree, Javier Vazquez, Freddy Garcia, Keith Foulke, Gabe White, Kevin Millwood, Vlad Nunez, Roberto Hernandez, Chan Ho Park, John Smoltz, and Chuck Finley. Also, look to deal the following players whose values may have plateaued: Jon Lieber, Mike Williams, Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Weaver, Mike Remlinger, Andy Ashby, and Bob Wickman. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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	July 13^th 2002			Your Daily Fantasy Rx