Today's Fantasy Rx

On our last day of discussing July trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, see their ERA rise by at least 1.50 from June to July. I only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in both months over the past five years.

Dan Reichert, P, KC: +4.13 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	6/13	44.1	46/7	27:23	2-4/2	5.28
July	12/13	58.1	78/6	35:46	3-3/0	9.41

02June	0/11	12	11/1	5:4	1-0/0	4.50

Reichert's K:BB numbers from the first three months are quite unimpressive at 19:11, 11:7, and June's 5:4; he'll never develop into even an effective reliever until he develops better command. He was likely available in your draft at either a minimum auction price or as a cheap keeper, but if you're contending now, you no can no longer afford to keep Reichert rostered. Deal him at your first opportunity.

Steve Karsay, RP, NYY: +3.22 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	6/42	83.2	74/10	65:39	5-4/8	3.44
July	6/29	50	72/7	34:16	3-6/5	6.66

02June	0/12	15	14/2	8:5	1-1/2	3.00

While he's been the best reliever in the majors thus far in 2002, we're concerned about his immediate statistical future due to his normal monthly trends. Even his skill development over the last couple of years doesn't suggest he can overcome this historical pattern. We're most worried about his 3.1 K:BB from April and May plummeting to 1.6 in June. If you can improve your team elsewhere, look to deal Karsay unless you need to keep him as insurance on Rivera.

Mark Guthrie, RP, NYM: +2.74 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/59	60.2	61/10	51:28	4-3/2	4.15
July	0/44	49.2	68/7	34:19	2-2/0	6.89

02June	0/12	8.1	4/0	7:4	2-0/0	0.00

Guthrie had a great month for any middle reliever, racking two wins, a 0.00 ERA, and a .96 WHIP. His solid skills might allow him to avoid his normal slump, especially since the Mets' defense has helped keep his hit rate so low. Wait until his WHIP heads over 1.10, and then consider another alternative, since while he'll earn positive value for the year, he could struggle over the last couple months if the Mets rebuild.

Mike Myers, RP, ARI: +2.44 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/66	44	37/4	40:16	0-3/1	3.07
July	0/70	47.1	49/8	39:23	1-2/0	5.51

02June	0/10	3.1	3/0	3:1	0-0/0	8.10

His June ERA has no basis in his skills, but one of the primary dangers of examining skills in such a limited sample size is that sheer bad luck can drastically distort qualitative numbers. The problem with using Myers is that he's not overly likely to face that many more than a batter each game; he only faced fourteen batters in all of June, and three of the four baserunners he allowed scored, a ridiculously high ratio. His normal July problems appear primarily due to an increased walk rate, but as long as he's holding a 3 BB/9 or less, and especially if he's maintaining his LPR qualification, you can wait if he's already on your roster.

Anthony Telford, RP, TEX: +2.29 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/46	59.2	50/4	43:19	4-1/1	2.26
July	0/50	61.1	67/4	34:20	1-6/0	4.55

02June	0/14	14.2	20/3	13:9	1-0/1	7.36

We had some hopes he could pick up some save opps but his weak AAA K/9 this year suggested trouble, and his horrible major league performance thus far might soon force him out of the Ranger Relief Rally. He's allowing two baserunners per innings, and with a likely ERA spike in July, deal or cut him by your next transaction deadline to avoid further ERA and WHIP damange.

Brian Moehler, SP, DET: +2.25 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	22/22	134.2	140/21	76:33	11-7/0	3.88
July	22/22	126.1	170/18	69:48	7-10/0	6.13

02June	4/4	24	28/3	7:3	2-1/0	4.88
(at AAA Toledo)

He made his first start yesterday, needing only 86 pitches to shut down the White Sox for seven innings, allowing only four hits and no walks but with just three strikeouts. As he couldn't even demonstrate dominance in four AAA starts, you probably shouldn't own Moehler at the moment. Talk up his great start and deal him to a starter-needy team if you want to potentially damage their qualitative numbers.

Troy Percival, RP, ANA: +2.18 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/55	53.2	34/5	21:49	5-3/36	2.35
July	0/53	51.2	37/5	62:34	3-5/25	4.53

02June	0/11	9.1	7/0	9:2	0-0/11	.96

He should keep closing in Anaheim through at least next season, and his stats don't suggest any immediate problems. Nevertheless I'd explore alternatives if contending since I don't generally trust Anaheim and Percival's value has likely peaked for the season after a relatively rare 11-save month. Wait until you find an acceptable package, and then move him for someone with more consistency and less health questions.

Elmer Dessens, SP, CIN: +2.10 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	7/27	80.2	73/11	52:25	3-3/1	2.90
July	10/24	86.1	97/7	50:21	6-4/0	5.00

02June	6/6	36.1	37/5	15:7	2-1/0	2.23

Someone is bound to have interest in a starter with one of the best ERAs in the league. You should be interested in trading someone who doesn't even strike out a batter every two innings, and who's receiving relatively weak run support. Explore a deal for a more dominant starter on a stronger offensive team before Dessens' pending ERA problems begin negating his positive value.

Roberto Hernandez, RP, KC: +2.10 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/62	67	47/2	53:32	4-0/34	1.34
July	0/53	55	51/4	52:19	3-4/30	3.44

02June	0/11	11.2	12/1	6:2	1-0/5	1.54

Despite the outwardly impressive numbers, Hernandez seems poised for a downturn. His June 2002 ERA nearly matches his June average, and considering his dominance is even weaker than usual, now might be a good time to move him. I'm still generally recommending him since he should continue to earn helpful positive value, but explore a deal for an upgrade if you're contending.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally rise between 1.50 and 1.99 points in July include Jay Witasick(+1.98 ERA), Sidney Ponson(+1.97), Paul Quantrill(+1.96), Paul Byrd(+1.94), Todd Van Poppel(+1.88), Mike DeJean(+1.83), Bobby Howry(+1.79), Orlando Hernandez(+1.67), John Burkett(+1.61), Eddie Guardado(+1.59), Sterling Hitchcock(+1.53), Mike Fetters(+1.51).

Normally declining pitchers not currently in the majors include Dan Miceli(+3.06), Jason Christiansen(+2.97), Carl Pavano(+2.54), Pete Schourek(+2.35), Shane Reynolds(+2.15), Armando Reynoso(+1.98), John Franco(+1.93), Alan Benes(+1.90), Felipe Lira(+1.83), Willie Blair(+1.81), and Chuck Nagy(+1.65).

The Umpire Hunter(1st lg; 14th overall)
Week 14b: July 5 - July 7

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
OF	Larry Walker		1530
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Juan Uribe		500
DH	Erubiel Durazo		440

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Pedro Martinez		1770
SP	Curt Schilling		1540
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Barry Zito		1080
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: Eat something grilled, catch some baseball on TV, watch some aerial explosions, and enjoy the likely very warm weather.