Today's Fantasy Rx

On our third day of discussing July trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, improve their ERA by at least 1.50 from June to July. I only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in both months over the past five years.

Buddy Groom, RP, BAL: -3.12 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/56	46.2	52/3	30:19	2-3/8	5.98
July	0/71	56.2	46/5	39:15	1-3/6	2.86

02June 0/11	11	7/1	6:3	1-1/0	2.46

Groom's posted monthly ERAs of 0.00, 2.84, and now 2.46 this year; he won't even be able to replicate his normal July improvement. If Jorge Julio runs into further difficulties, expect Groom to snag about a half dozen save opportunities, although the Orioles seem insistent on keeping the almost 37-year-old reliever rostered while shopping pitchers with more upside like B.J. Ryan. If you already own Groom, definitely keep him for another month, and if not, look to acquire him if his owner doesn't particularly care for middle relievers.

Mike Magnante, RP, OAK: -2.82 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/43	50.1	52/3	33:22	4-3/1	5.01
July	0/49	53.1	46/2	30:15	3-2/2	2.19

02June 0/7	6	0/8	3:2	0-0/0	4.50

Oakland barely uses Magnante, leaving his future ERA very difficult to predict because of his uncertain work patterns. His skills remain quite shallow, so we shouldn't expect a significant improvement, although I'm comfortable suggesting his ERA will stay below 4.00 for the month. If you're desperate for a middle reliever whose ERA should neither help nor hurt your team and could occasionally vulture a win, then you can probably wait to see if Magnante will post decent numbers this month; cut him if you can't afford the risk.

Scott Schoeneweis, P, ANA: -2.62 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	9/19	60	80/13	39:26	3-7/0	7.50
July	7/11	55.1	66/6	20:14	1-1/0	4.88

02June 5/5	27.1	27/6	15:13	3-2/0	5.27

Anaheim recently shifted Schoeneweis to the pen so that John Lackey could continue starting; since Schoeneweis has never displayed wonderful control and Lackey deserves an extended look, hopefully Schoeneweis can develop into the second lefty reliever the Angels need. I normally show significant confidence in starters when they first move to the pen since their strikeout rates should rise, enabling them to display better command and hopefully superior qualitative stats. Acquire Schoeneweis if his current owner doesn't believe he'll succeed in middle relief, since Scott should at least post good numbers in July.

Tim Worrell, RP, SF: -2.38 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/54	66.1	66/4	53:30	1-3/1	3.80
July	0/46	50.2	34/3	49:16	2-2/2	1.42

02June 0/13	11.1	6/0	10:4	1-0/0	0.00

Now that San Francisco's almost finished with their only trip to Colorado this month, Worrell should have at least a decent chance of maintaining his perfect June ERA. He's likely first in line for Giants' saves if Nen runs into any injury trouble, and considering the relative strength of his entire team and the pitcher-friendly home park, Worrell is definitely someone to acquire for low-risk qualitative statistical help.

Jason Johnson, SP, BAL: -2.33 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	19/21	108	120/18	67:42	3-9/0	6.33
July	12/13	72	64/8	46:42	4-6/0	4.00

02June 5/5	34	26/3	24:7	2-2/0	2.65

Another qualifier unlikely to post his normal improvement this month, Johnson remains a very interesting pitcher with solid skills who lacks much run support. A current 35054 PQS log nicely illustrates both his occasional difficulties and impressive upside. If he's available in your AL-only league, we definitely recommend looking to acquire him if you need a starter.

Dave Weathers, RP, NYM: -2.29 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/37	51.2	64/9	38:26	2-3/0	5.23
July	0/52	67.1	61/7	58:18	5-5/1	2.94

02June 0/11	8.1	14/2	4:3	0-2/0	6.48

Weathers won't likely see any save opportunities this year even if the Mets move Benitez since Strickland will be first in line, and they might even look to unload Weathers' hefty contract. Anyone interested in him should approach with caution since Bobby Valentine's used him as more of a specialist during June, his first month of the year with more appearances than innings. Perhaps not coincidentally, he also suffered a loss of dominance and therefore command, leaving him as someone I'd prefer not to deploy at the moment. However since he normally improves this month, both statistically and skillfully, you should likely wait to move Weathers unless you can upgrade to a more consistent reliever at minimal cost.

Cory Lidle, SP, OAK: -1.78 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	12/22	78	97/16	56:14	2-3/1	5.31
July	6/19	51	50/5	25:16	5-2/0	3.53

02June 5/6	30.1	44/3	15:6	1-2/0	5.04	

Aaron Harang's performance ranks with the recent debuts of Hudson, Mulder, and Zito, leaving Lidle as only the fifth starter in the second half. His relatively modest contract makes him prime trade bait if the A's need to upgrade anywhere, so you should look to trade him if you can't keep American Leaguers traded to the other league. Although if you can keep traded players, wait for Lidle's likely improvement. He's demonstrated solid command every month this year with a 2.2 K:BB or better, and only the Athletics' occasionally troublesome defense prevents him from returning to last year's excellence.

Omar Daal, SP, LA: -1.77 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	19/25	113.2	143/16	84:46	7-5/0	6.26
July	17/27	120.1	127/14	85:46	6-7/0	4.49

02June 4/4	22.1	21/7	14:7	2-2/0	7.25

Home runs bit Daal hard in June for a horrible 2.8 HR/9. We can expect that ratio to fall now that he won't face Colorado, Boston, or the ever-powerful Tampa Bay lineup this month. I'd probably only look to acquire him if you were desperate in wins since he's a high-risk pitcher with below average stamina.

John Thomson, SP, COL: -1.76 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	9/9	55.2	61/7	43:15	3-2/0	4.69
July	6/6	40	34/2	27:8	1-2/0	2.93

02June 6/6	34.1	40/10	17:5	0-4/0	7.34

After two troublesome home starts against Cleveland and the Yankees, Thomson posted two perfect PQS scores in Los Angeles and Seattle. I see no reason not to continue spot-starting him on the road, and if anyone's dissatisfied with Thomson's performance, look to acquire him in any league where you can bench him at will.

Javier Vazquez, SP, MON: -1.75 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	19/19	112.1	150/20	95:26	3-8/0	5.77
July	18/18	125.1	126/13	109:27	8-6/0	4.02

02June	 5/5	33.1	36/5	26:7	2-2/0	4.32

His current 22402 5-start PQS log definitely troubles us after he was one of the five most dominant pitchers last season. However, aside from a drop in his dominance, his skills look intact. Especially since Colon will assume the mantle of staff ace, now is a great time to acquire Vazquez.

Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD: -1.74 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/62	61.1	56/9	76:21	3-3/40	4.11
July	0/57	57	37/5	73:15	3-3/41	2.37

02June 0/12	12.1	12/1	14:5	0-1/6	3.65

Ignoring his one poor July outing thus far, Hoffman should approach a sub-2.00 ERA for the remainder of the month. His skills remain excellent although the continual injuries to his teammates leave him with fewer save opportunities. If you need to add some saves and excellent peripheral statistics, look to acquire Hoffman.

Gabe White, RP, CIN: -1.71 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/41	50.2	49/8	50:21	2-2/0	4.62
July	0/46	52.2	45/6	46:12	3-2/1	2.91

02June 0/14	10.2	10/2	7:1	1-0/0	4.22

An excellent pitcher who could succeed in a larger role, White remains a solid addition to almost any fantasy squad. He maintained his superb skills despite posting his normally elevated June ERA, so we can also expect his normal July improvement. He's one of the safer middle relievers to acquire.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally drop between 1.70 and 1.50 points in June include Mike Stanton(-1.61 ERA), Todd Jones(-1.60), Keith Foulke(-1.58), Nelson Cruz(-1.55), Octavio Dotel(-1.55), Chuck Finley(-1.55), Jason Schmidt(-1.54), Sean Lower(-1.53), and Russ Ortiz(-1.53).

Normally improving pitchers not currently in the majors include Hector Carrasco(-5.02 ERA), Will Cunnane(-3.62), Scott Elarton(-2.93), Ricky Bottalico(-2.50), Brian Bohanon(-2.21), Steve Woodard(-2.21), Chris Peters(-2.06), Jason Bere(-2.04), Bryce Florie(-1.81), Gil Heredia(-1.81), Hipolito Pichardo(-1.67), and Darren Dreifort(-1.55).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Since the three active pitchers likely to post the biggest ERA drops are left-handed relievers in the AL, consider adding one of them or a similar player to replace your worst starting pitcher. You'll improve your ERA and WHIP with both the superior performance and by removing the starter's negative influence, and you might even wind up with a few saves or vultured wins.