Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our second day of examination of July trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past five years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from June to July. I only looked at players who compiled 100 AB in both June and July over the past five years.

I'll discuss in detail everyone with an OPS decline of .150 or more before listing the remaining qualified players.

Jay Payton, OF, NYM: -.143 BA; -.409 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	115	5:12	.357/.379/.583
July	168	13:26	.214/.273/.280

02June	46	3:6	.283/.340/.391

Payton's playing himself out of a regular role as a July fall this year similar to his normal progression will likely cause his departure from Shea. His BB:K remains lodged at .50 for the year, and his only skill helpful to the Mets is his ability to cover center. However with their other problems on offense, both they and you should look to deal Payton before his value falls further.

Melvin Mora, UT, BAL: -.116 BA; -.325 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	178	16:32	.309/.374/.506
July	192	17:37	.193/.269/.286

02June	98	10:22	.296/.367/.541

Mora's June averages were similar to his usual numbers for the month, and after a fantastic .455 OBP in April, he posted his best BA and SLG of the year in June while his OBP stayed at only .367. With quintuplets to feed, we understand why he's pushing towards career-high stats as he heads to arbitration, but he unfortunately seems on track for his normal July slump. He still offers an intriguing power/speed combo, but you should probably deal Mora to someone with more faith in his upside since we don't expect much improvement from him over the rest of the year.

Orlando Merced, UT, HOU: -.129 BA; -.319 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	236	29:23	.352/.425/.551
July	130	22:24	.223/.342/.315

02June	40	2:8	.375/.405/.675

After touting him here a month ago, we're somewhat irritated that we didn't manage to pick him up for a free 4 HR, 11 RBI, and 9 R month. Unfortunately Merced's average June OPS is 164 points more than his next best month in April, and he should drop off in the second half as usual. Deal or cut him if you can find someone with either more playing time or upside.

Bernie Williams, OF, NYY: -.093 BA; -.308 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	382	63:56	.382/.470/.686
July	381	66:55	.289/.391/.457

02June	98	16:21	.286/.386/.378

Mr. Jazz Guitar ranks just behind John Olerud and Jim Thome as the American Leaguers most deserving of a spot in Milwaukee who Torre managed to overlook. Williams actually exploded in May this year for a 1.125 OPS, falling below .765 in both April and June. Hopefully he simply accelerated the timing of his normal slump and will rebound in the second half; with his value depressed after a homerless June, wait for a hot streak before considering any move.

Jeff Kent, 2B, SF: -.110 BA; -.283 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	427	52:82	.344/.423/.604
July	431	40:81	.243/.303/.441

02June	111	9:13	.414/.463/.667

While he may have compiled some of the best June numbers of anyone in the game with that .411 BA and 28 RBI, he's due for an immediate drop off especially with Bonds no longer on base over half the time ahead of him. He's received significant recent national media coverage, so especially in online leagues, his trade value may have peaked; if you can help your team in multiple areas, consider a deal involving Kent.

Sandy Alomar, C, CHW: -.089 BA; -.266 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	268	15:31	.325/.368/.500
July	250	10:34	.236/.266/.336

02June	17	1:3	.294/.333/.588

Someone in the Alomar family managed a fairly productive seventeen at-bats this year, but since Sandy's kid is already overdue for another DL trip after only returning a few days ago, you might consider a deal while he's theoretically healthy. We wouldn't want to own Roberto's brother if he spends another several weeks on the DL.

Larry Walker, OF, COL: -.081 BA; -.262 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	391	60:56	.381/.478/.737
July	404	54:62	.300/.368/.567

02June	83	10:9	.410/.474/.737

He's finally bringing his owners some bananas to go with the homers, and we always appreciate any player who posts a .400+ BA for a month. Walker could suffer his normal slump and still remain an extremely productive player, but you should likely just wait out any decrease in performance if you already own him unless you're desperate for offense and can afford to add a historically fragile player

Magglio Ordonez, OF, CHW: -.063 BA; -.231 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	403	45:36	.367/.429/.635
July	387	40:31	.284/.352/.481

02June	100	14:19	.320/.404/.570

Konerko's awesome numbers have left Ordonez receiving less press than yet another first baseman teammate. Ordonez is practically just as valuable in roto as Paulie, since the extra half-dozen steals and thirteen runs outweigh six dingers, ten RBI, and 15 points of BA. Although Konerko lacks a severe split in the second half, and we think Mags might slump under a .900 OPS, making now an interesting time to deal him if you can significantly improve a few categories without losing much ground in power or BA.

Ryan McGuire, UT, BAL: -.057 BA; -.182 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	162	24:34	.228/.324/.370
July	123	21:34	.171/.292/.220

02June	16	2:4	.125/.222/.188

McGuire normally sinks from the level of a barely adequate pinch-hitter to a true waste of roster space this month, although I still feel he could help certain teams with more consistent playing time. However he's a likely target to return to the minors when Conine and Richard return from the DL, so deal or cut McGuire before Baltimore makes a similar move.

Jeff Cirillo, 3B, SEA: -.070 BA; -.179 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	507	41:60	.355/.406/.513
July	515	53:68	.285/.354/.386

02June	94	9:10	.298/.364/.372

While a .736 OPS is better than his .591 and .684 marks in the first two months of the year, Cirillo's numbers rank as one of our biggest disappointments this season. With his June 2002 performance as poor as his normal July "slump", I fear any potential decrease in production will leave him almost completely valueless. Nevertheless, his owners should probably wait in the hope that he somehow improves this month, elevating his trade value to allow us to receive at least some compensation since he's really due for a breakout at some point.

Jerry Hairston, Jr., 2B, BAL: -.109 BA; -.177 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	118	7:17	.314/.357/.432
July	151	12:21	.205/.281/.331

02June	43	0:8	.209/.239/.233

He's apparently lost his job to Brian Roberts, and considering Hairston's performance this year and relatively limited upside, we agree with the switch. We also don't own either player this season and therefore haven't suffered from Mike Hargrove's daily whims with some of you. Since he's still worth keeping rostered due to his SB potential, wait until he grabs some playing time back before attempting a trade.

Ben Grieve, OF, TB: -.050 BA; -.176 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	372	50:89	.296/.382/.527
July	329	62:79	.246/.371/.410

02June	108	11:29	.269/.339/.454

Tampa's OBP woes limit his RBI/R potential, and with Grieve only maintaining a .76 contact rate, we can't expect much help from his BA. We've seen no sign of any return to his Rookie of the Year performance level, so look to deal him as soon as displays a little power for a few days.

Richie Sexson, 1B, MIL: -.059 BA; -.157 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
June	293	26:79	.283/.342/.563
July	245	20:69	.224/.283/.465

02June	100	11:26	.300/.381/.480

One of two very deserving Brewers' All-Stars, Sexson unfortunately might not impress his owners if he continues his expected pattern this month. He didn't show much power in June but at least has managed a .300+ BA for the last two months. Given Sexson's solid power production and four category upside, wait through any slump unless you receive a fantastic offer for him.

Players that qualified but lost less than .150 OPS include Michael Tucker(-.076 BA/-.137 OPS), Andruw Jones(-.052/-.132), Rafael Furcal(-.073/-.128), Marquis Grissom(-.059/-.128), Jeffrey Hammonds(-.057/-.128), Ron Belliard(-.053/-.126), Shawn Green(-.072/-.119), Damian Jackson(-.50/-.118), Ron Gant(-.050/-.105), and Marty Cordova(-.050/-.103).

A few players qualified but aren't currently in the majors, including Chad Allen(-.122 BA/-.273 OPS), Chad Kreuter(-.085/-.244), Raul Casanova(-.071/-.236), F.P. Santangelo(-.101/-.195), Tom Goodwin(-.099/-.181), and Dante Bichette(-.051/-.168).

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'll be somewhat surprised if the players don't set a strike date next Monday at their meeting only a few miles from us, so you should anticipate the effect of that action on your league. I strongly suspect that contenders will immediately move to improve their teams in anticipation of a work stoppage curtailing play this year, so you need to pre-empt your opponents' moves. Begin exploring trade options within the next day whether you want to add players or deal your non-keepers for help in rebuilding. You should seek to complete any deals by Sunday to avoid a potential rush of trades over and immediately after the break.