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May 30th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
Arizona: Curt Schilling, RH Ace As we expected a slump from Arizona's offense and potential injury troubles if Schilling continued to amass high pitch counts, his current 10 victories, which leave him on pace for 30 wins leave us rather shocked. In 12 starts, he hasn't thrown a single PQS below 4, and his current 5-start log is 55455. He's dominating at a level beyond even that of teammate Randy Johnson with an unbelievable K:BB(15.4 '02; 3.9 career) and incredible K/9(12.4 '02; 8.6 career) for a starter. Along with a solid H/9(7.0 '02; 8.0 career) coupled with avoiding the HR/9(.9 '02; .9 career) that plagued him the first half of last season, his G-F(1.14 '02; 1.22 career) also indicates we shouldn't worry about too many disasters. Make sure to acquire him if you see any evidence of his availability in your league.
April Overachiever: Byung-Hyun Kim, RH Closer
While I thought Gryboski would succeed if given the chance to help Atlanta's bullpen, his currently weak skills don't support this great ERA. His 1.2 K:BB is .8 worse than his 2001 MLE, although his 6.6 K/9 is right on target with our expectations. Both 7.1 H/9 and .5 HR/9 appear solid and supported by a wonderful 3.30 G-F, so perhaps his ERA will remain low if he can cut his walk rate almost in half. Until he demonstrates better control, you can either move him or wait for potential improvement.
April Overachiever: Darren Holmes, RH Reliever
Don Baylor's started stretching Pulpo out for more than an inning of work in an effort to preserve the overworked Joe Borowski, the Cubs' only consistently excellent right-handed reliever this season. The extra work doesn't really appear to have affected Alfonseca, as while his K:BB(1.6 '02; 1.8 career) is slightly low, his K/9(7.1 '02; 5.9 career), H/9(7.1 '02; 9.8 career), and HR/9(.4 '02; .8 career) are much better than his normal marks. His G-F(3.00 '02; 1.71 career) has even increased in every season since his rookie year, but he'd never even surpassed a 2.02 prior to his season. If Mark Prior's debut continues to invigorate the previously lifeless Cubs, look to acquire Alfonseca, since despite his shallow command skills, he might start accumulating a bunch of saves.
April Overachiever: Juan Cruz, RH Starter
Reitsma and Dessens have combined to give the Reds a surprisingly potent 1-2 punch atop the Cincinnati rotation. However as Dessens' ERA has already jumped since April, Reitsma won't be able to maintain his current excellence even if he continuously repeats his 5-start 34351 PQS trend. While his K/9(5.2 '02; 4.7 '01) indicates that he's slightly more dominant this year, his K:BB(1.5 '02; 2.0 '01) marks his deteriorating control. Even improvement in his H/9(8.9 '02; 10.3 '01), HR/9(.7 '02; 1.1 '01), and G-F(1.31 '02; 1.05 '01) leave him vulnerable to ERA jumps since these numbers are only relatively average for a good pitcher. You should probably look to deal Reitsma now as his value has likely peaked.
April Overachiever: Elmer Dessens, RH Starter
The stats of several Rockies' relievers actually support their excellent qualitative numbers, but Stark's skills don't suggest that he'll maintain his ERA if left in the rotation. Perhaps his wildly divergent skills from last season are due to the respectively small sample sizes(23.1 IP this year and 14.2 IP last year), but I don't see the same pitcher behind these numbers. Stark's H/9(6.6 '02; 12.9 '01) have dropped almost in half while his HR/9(.8 '02; 3.1 '01) have plummeted, a development supported by his improved G-F(1.15 '02; .59 '01). However his K/9(4.6 '02; 7.4 '01) have fallen a rather significant margin, also wrecking havoc with his K:BB(.9 '02; 3.0 '01). Even a respectable 3522 PQS log thus far doesn't redeem these skill difficulties, so if anyone's still interested in adding Rockies' starters, deal Stark to them, especially as Shawn Chacon's due to return from the DL sometime in the next week.
April Overachiever: Jason Jennings, RH Starter
After rising from A-ball Kane County to AA Portland last year, Izquierdo jumped to the majors after only 12 IP in 2 starts at AAA Calgary. Although his ERA has left his (likely few) owners rather pleased, his current skills don't support his numbers, as very weak 1.3 K:BB and 5.4 K/9 outweigh his decent 7.7 H/9, .8 HR/9, and 1.89 G-F. His 2001 MLEs don't suggest any improvement in his dominance, although I think his control will improve in time. Still, I don't see any reason to own him until you see a lowed BB/9, and deal him now if anyone's interested in a middle reliever with a great ERA.
April Overachiever: A.J. Burnett, RH Starter
Although the Astros seem to rotate middle relievers every few games, Stone's remained on the roster all season despite unacceptably shallow skills. We've seen improvement in his K/9(5.4 '02; 4.7 '01) and H/9(6.8 '02; 9.4 '01) while his K:BB(1.1 '02; 2.0 '01) have dropped precipitously. A rising HR/9(1.4 '02; 1.2 '01) is also worrisome considering the correlative drop in G-F(1.44 '02; 2.83 '01), so I see little reason to risk owning Stone at the moment. Deal him if anyone mistakes his solid stats for solid skills.
April Overachiever: Dave Mlicki, RH Starter
The performances of Ishii, Ashby, and Odalis Perez aren't completely surprising given their previously-displayed upside. However no one expected Gagne to dominate at this level, and his emergence has certainly pleased his owners while infuriating everyone that passed on him. His K:BB(8.8 '02; 2.2 career), K/9(11.5 '02; 7.9 career), and H/9(5.3 '02; 8.2 career) rank with the best relievers in the game. However his improved HR/9(1.0 '02; 1.5 career) are not supported by a falling G-F(.50 '02; .71 career), so remain mildly cautious when seeking to acquire Gagne.
April Overachiever: Omar Daal, LH Swingman
With injured closer Curt Leskanic and designated replacement Chad Fox prepared to return, along with Rotohelp's preferred Milwaukee closer Luis Vizcaino and capable lefty Ray King already on the team, DeJean won't even be the fourth best Brewer reliever in a few weeks. While he's improved all his skills this year, including his K:BB(1.6 '02; 1.3 career), K/9(6.9 '02; 5.4 career), H/9(8.2 '02; 9.5 career), HR/9(.6 '02; .9 career), G-F(2.00 '02; 1.50 career), I don't see a future of closing games for the 31-year old. Look to deal DeJean now, especially if you can package him with another player to upgrade to a more stable closer.
April Overachiever: Luis Vizcaino, RH Reliever
Six saves for Herges strikes me as a few saves too many since Scott Stewart and T.J. Tucker have both performed at a noticeably superior level. An elevated H/9(11.5 '02; 8.8 career), coupled with both a higher K/9(7.6 '02; 6.6 career) and worse K:BB(1.6 '02; 1.8 career), pushes his WHIP to levels not normally acceptable for a closer. His solid HR/9(.3 '02; .7 career), somewhat supported by a better G-F(1.88 '02; 1.61 career), helps keep his ERA down, but I don't expect him to ever secure a closing job. If another owner has more faith in Herges' ability, deal him to that owner.
April Overachiever: T.J. Tucker, RH Reliever
Only Trachsel's H/9(9.6 '02; 9.2 career) resemble anything from his previous seasons. His K/9(3.9 '02; 6.3 career) have thoroughly deteriorated, dragging down his K:BB(.9 '02 2.0 career) to a dreadful level. He hasn't posted an ERA below 4.46 since 1996, and with only a slight bump in his G-F(1.41 '01; 1.33 career), I don't expect him to continue this low HR/9(.4 '02; 1.3 career). However his current 13353 5-start PQS log also shows some promise, allowing me to at least suggest you wait for his probable dozen wins and 4.50 ERA.
April Overachiever: Grant Roberts, RH Reliever
Padilla's posted excellent skills for a few seasons between the upper minors and majors, but few expected his emergence as an upper tier NL starter; he showed more apparent promise as a closer given he'd never started in the majors until this season. Fortunately only his K/9(6.7 '02; 7.1 career) and HR/9(.5 '02; .4 career) have shown even mild drops, and his K:BB(3.00 '02; 1.6) indicate very solid command. His H/9(7.2 '02; 10.1 career) and continually good G-F(2.19 '02; 2.19 career) depict a pitcher with no major weaknesses, and Padilla's current 35343 5-start PQS log also supports this assessment. I'm not comfortable labeling him a roto ace quiet yet, but consider him a solid #2 for you to acquire to help any team.
April Overachiever: Cliff Politte, RH Reliever
Pittsburgh's league-worst offense has somehow managed to support Wells with 5.7 runs per game, .7 better than any other starter and 1.8 R/G more than nominal ace Josh Fogg, explaining the extra three wins despite far worse skills. Wells' command remains an issue with weak K:BB(1.6 '02; 1.5 career) and K/9(5.9 '02; 6.7 career). However his H/9(8.2 '02; 10.2 career) and HR/9(.5 '02; 1.0 career) have certainly improved, nicely supported by a G-F(2.20 '02; 1.35 career) very helpful in NL ballparks and in front of the Pirates' great infield defense. His recent 35434 5-start PQS log suggests that Wells might have a bright future, but you might want to deal him to a rebuilding team since his present isn't quite as promising.
April Overachiever: Joe Beimel, LH Reliever
After dismissals from the Cincinnati and Seattle organizations, Tomko is finally fulfilling the expectations of those who never forgot the promise of his 1997 rookie season despite an apparent smear campaign from Jack McKeon and Jim Bowden. While none of his skill has significantly improved over his career averages, and his HR/9(1.4 '02; 1.3 career) are even slightly elevated, he's otherwise shown across-the-board development in his K:BB(2.8 '02; 2.1 career), K/9(7.7 '02; 6.8 career), H/9(8.2 '02; 8.6 career), and G-F(1.15 '02; .93 career). A current 44205 5-start PQS log, marred by an injury-related 0, certainly demonstrates his continued potential. While I'm still concerned about a potential extended DL stay at some point due to both his current problems and heavy workload from his first couple of seasons, his skills merit a recommendation for you to acquire him, especially if you need help in 5x5 leagues.
April Overachiever: Matt DeWitt, RH Reliever
Zerbe's place in the Giants' pen is seemingly assured following the news that Jason Christiansen needs Tommy John surgery. However don't confuse his relatively decent qualitative stats with any promise of maintaining this ERA. His K/9(5.4 '02; 5.4 career) indicates little dominance, and now his K:BB(1.0 '02; 2.5 career) suggests Zerbe possesses little sustainable control; his H/9(9.8 '02; 9.4 career) also seem somewhat high. Even an improving HR/9(.5 '02; .8 career) isn't supported by a developing G-F(1.82 '02; 1.93 career), so while I normally would recommend most any pitcher due to the friendly environment of PacBell, you should deal Zerbe if you've picked him up.
April Overachiever: Kirk Rueter, LH Starter
Hackman is the one Cardinal with an ERA under 3.85 that appears incapable of supporting qualitative stats near his current numbers. While he's definitely improved his HR/9(.6 '02; 1.6 career) and G-F(1.48 '02; .79 career) from previously poor levels, and he's also decreased an already decent H/9(6.8 '02; 7.5 career), his K:BB(.8 '02; 1.3 career) and K/9(3.7 '02; 5.6 career) leave him unownable at this time. If you've picked him up for ERA help, look to deal Hackman immediately before his weak command and dominance begin to hurt your team ERA and WHIP.
April Overachiever: Dave Veres, RH Reliever
Internet Challenge As we've just begun suffering from the apparently unfortunately pre-emptive decision to add Durazo for Jeremy Giambi, we're not going to compound our problems by replacing Toby Hall and costing more salary cap room. While we need HR and RBI help, we have more confidence in a quick return to the majors by Hall than in receiving cost-effective production from another catcher.
Starters(6) No starts: Pedro, Schilling, Brown, Clemens, Wood
Relievers(4) Mussina, Morris, and Lawrence seem fairly safe bets, and we see no reason not to start Randy or Zito against fairly weak offenses. We'll continue to play Gagne until we close more ground in saves and we'll sit Izzy since he's our most expensive closer at home. Colorado's on the road, but we're growing more desperate for offense, especially HR and RBI. So we're going to add Vlad and drop the injured Kevin Brown from our team. To deploy Vlad this week, we'll take Oswalt instead of Randy and hope the WHIP curse that's affected nearly every pitcher this week will also cause Randy to fall to Daal; we can also sit Durazo as he faces two left-handers this weekend. We need to sit Rollins in favor of Uribe, but now we have the top four non-Colorado position players active, along with studs like Giambi, Suzuki, and Berkman.
The Umpire Hunter C Jorge Posada 990 C Toby Hall 320 1B Jason Giambi 1640 1B Ryan Klesko 1300 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Juan Uribe 500 OF Sammy Sosa 1900 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF J.D. Drew 1010 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 DH Vlad Guerrero 1880 DH Barry Bonds 1830
SP Mike Mussina 1380 SP Matt Morris 1190 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Roy Oswalt 830 SP Eric Gagne 500 SP Brian Lawrence 480 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 1200 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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