Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Dennis Cook, LH Reliever
1-0 on 6:5 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 18 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and 18-17 G-F; 1.17 ERA.

Cook remains one of the most effective elder lefties in the game, but his current stats are far too shallow to support his current ERA. A very weak K:BB(1.2 '02; 1.9 career) and K/9(3.5 '02; 6.6 career) display his disappearing dominance, and he won't maintain his fantastic H/9(3.5 '02; 8.4 career) and HR/9(0.0 '02; 1.1 career). While his G-F(1.06 '02; .81 career) indicates the possibility of a lower homer rate this year, I still expect his ERA to rise at least 2 full points by October. Deal him now, even if you were hoping for a small ERA boost.

April Overachiever: Ramon Ortiz, RH Starter
Old stats: 2-3 on 23:11 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 5 GS with 30 H, 6 HR, and a 2.55 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 31:6 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 4 GS with 29 H, 10 HR, and a 4.59 ERA.

Baltimore: Willis Roberts, RH Reliever
2-1 on 16:11 K:BB in 31 IP over 24 G with 28 H, 3 HR, and 46-40 G-F; 2.03 ERA.

Rodrigo Lopez's stats continue to amaze, but he's at least demonstrated relative consistency in his outings while Roberts, after losing the closer's job, has also lost his improved K/9 gained upon his move to relief. Only his HR/9(.9 '02; 1.0 '01) are noticeably superior to last year's combined stats between starting and closing, and that number isn't even supported by a falling G-F(1.15 '02; 1.48 '01). I'm quite concerned about his poor K:BB(1.5 '02; 1.7 '01) and K/9(4.6 '02; 6.5 '01), and even a slight drop H/9(8.1 '02; 8.4 '01) doesn't compensate for his vanishing power. Once he moved to the bullpen last season, Roberts posted much improved skill ratios, including a 2.5 K:BB and 8.2 K/9; you should probably deal him unless you expect a return to those numbers.

April Overachiever: Scott Erickson, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-2 on 14:15 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 6 GS with 37 H, 3 HR, and a 3.57 ERA.
Recommendation: deal him right now, so if you own him, make an offer to another team today.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 12:14 K:BB in 25 IP over 5 GS with 33 H, 5 HR, and a 6.48 ERA.

Boston: Rolando Arrojo, RH Swingman
3-1 on 15:12 K:BB in 34.1 IP over 15 G with 31 H, 1 HR, and 57-33 G-F; 3.93 ERA.

Arrojo reportedly might see some starts in the near future, but I fail to understand the rationale given these questionable skills. While I firmly believe that acceptable starters can dominate upon a move to the bullpen, Arrojo's poor K/9(3.9 '02; 6.6 career), the same problem of Cook and Roberts, keeps him from assuming a larger role on Boston's staff. His poor dominance drags down his K:BB(1.3 '02; 2.0 career), although an improved H/9(8.1 '02; 9.1 career) and HR/9(.3 '02; 1.1 career), supported by a rise in his G-F(1.73 '02; 1.52 career), suggest that he's compensated by not challenging hitters. I don't expect him to maintain this ERA unless he starts striking out more batters, so you should likely deal him now to avoid the likely ERA damage to your team.

April Overachiever: Darren Oliver, LH Starter
Old stats: 3-1 on 20:5 K:BB in 28 IP over 5 G with 32 H, 2 HR, and a 2.89 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 8:16 K:BB in 21 IP over 5 G(4 GS) with 30 H, 5 HR, and a 8.14 ERA.

Chicago White Sox: Bobby Howry, RH Reliever
0-0 on 11:10 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 21 G with 23 H, 3 HR, and 29-34 G-F; 3.86 ERA.

Reports from Spring Training suggested that Howry had lost several MPH off his pitches, compelling manager Jerry Manuel to shift him out of his normal setup role. Howry's ERA would likely be much higher if he pitched in more important situations, since his all skill ratios are below expectations. Both his K:BB(1.1 '02; 2.1 career) and K/9(4.2 '02; 8.1 career) are quite poor, and I see little to like in his H/9(8.9 '02; 7.8 career), HR/9(1.2 '01; 1.1 career), or G-F(.85 '02; .89 career); at least his HR/9 and G-F are close to his career norms. Howry looks likely to suffer at least one or two dreadful games in the next month, so deal him now if anyone's interested.

April Overachiever: Gary Glover, RH Setup
Old stats: 0-0 on 9:9 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 12 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 1.42 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 5:10 K:BB in 17.1 IP over 5 G(4 GS) with 20 H, 3 HR, and a 6.75 ERA.

Cleveland: Bartolo Colon, RH Starter
6-3 on 53:21 K:BB in 80 IP over 11 GS with 65 H, 9 HR, and 98-94 G-F; 2.48 ERA.

Colon's K/9 has plummeted from 10.1 in 2000 to 8.1 last year and 6.0 this season, far below his 7.7 career mark. However, he's compensated by dropping his walk rate by an even greater extent so that he's posted a career-best K:BB(2.5 '02; 2.1 career). His lower H/9(7.3 '02; 8.6 career) also contributes to his sparkling 1.08 WHIP, and he's even maintained his HR/9(1.0 '02; 1.0 career) despite a drop in his G-F(1.04 '02; 1.29 career). Perhaps the two years he aged in the off-season helped him mature as a pitcher; Colon should be a great target for you to acquire if your team needs an ace.

April Overachiever: Paul Shuey, RH Relief
Old stats: 0-0 on 7:4 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 11 G with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 2-0 on 12:2 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 10 G with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 1.93 ERA.

Detroit: Juan Acevedo, RH Closer
6 Saves on 18:8 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 19 G with 19 H, 1 HR, and 30-32 G-F; 3.29 ERA.

Acevedo hadn't posted even a 2.0 K:BB since his rookie season in Colorado, and he's cruising as the Tigers' closer with a solid K:BB(2.3 '02; 1.5 career) as Matt Anderson's replacement. His K/9(6.0 '02; 5.5 career) is acceptable, but I doubt he'll maintain his H/9(6.3 '02; 9.2 career) or HR/9(.3 '02; 1.2 career), especially with a slight drop in G-F(.94 '02; 1.06 career) canceling any Comerica advantages. Acevedo remains extremely useful as long as Anderson's out, so if you can't find decent value in trade, wait for another dozen saves before considering a trade when Anderson's closer to returning.

April Overachiever: Steve Sparks, RH Starter
Old stats: 2-2 on 18:11 K:BB in 42 IP over 6 GS with 41 H, 2 HR, and a 3.00 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-3 on 9:9 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 4 GS with 43 H, 4 HR, and a 8.20 ERA.

Kansas City: Jeremy Affeldt, LH Starter
1-1 on 34:16 K:BB in 36 IP over 11 G(4GS) with 35 H, 2 HR, and 38-34 G-F; 2.75 ERA.

Affeldt posted fantastic numbers in relief before moving into the rotation, so far compiling a 0033 PQS log. However he only managed 2001 AA MLEs of 2.5 K:BB, 6.6 K/9, 10.6 H/9, and 0.6 HR/9, rather worse than his 2002 skills of 2.1 K:BB, 8.5 K/9, 8.8 H/9, and .5 HR/9. His decent 1.12 G-F indicates he can maintain his low HR/9, although I expect his K/9 will continue to fall if he remains in the rotation. He likely won't amass many wins in front of the weak Royals' offense, although his solid skills suggest that his upside is rather high. Acquire Affeldt if you don't mind an occasional disaster, since he really should only be in AAA right now.

April Overachiever: Paul Byrd, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-1 on 17:2 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 5 GS with 30 H, 5 HR, and a 3.06 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 4-1 on 30:10 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 6 GS with 30 H, 8 HR, and a 2.74 ERA.

Minnesota: Mike Jackson, RH Aging Former Closer
2-1 on 11:5 K:BB in 20.1 IP over 22 G with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 31-19 G-F; .88 ERA.

While Jackson has pitched fairly well this year, including maintaining his career K:BB(2.2 '02; 2.2 career) rate, he's very unlikely to maintain this ERA all season. His K/9(4.9 '02; 7.8 career) is down below 6 for the first time since his debut season of 1986, and he won't sustain above average H/9(6.6 '02; 7.2 career) and HR/9(0.0 '02; .9 career) rates. Aside from this year's G-F(1.63 '02; .97 career) and a 1.52 mark in 1999, he's never even been above 1.17, so while this developing groundball tendency is a welcome departure from his norm, he also should revert to closer to his career mean. Since all his skills appear likely to slide from their current marks, deal Jackson soon before his ERA begins it's upward climb.

April Overachiever: J.C. Romero, LH Reliever
Old stats: 2-0 on 19:6 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 16 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a .59 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 8:5 K:BB in 14 IP over 12 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

New York Yankees: Ted Lilly, LH Swingman
2-4 on 42:13 K:BB in 50 IP over 10 G(7 GS) with 31 H, 5 HR, and 47-68 G-F; 2.88 ERA.

Inconsistency as a starter that resulted in a 12533 current 5-start PQS log covers the very impressive skill development of the youngster who holds the best 2002 WHIP on the team at .88. In his first season of thus far uninterrupted service with the Yankees, Lilly's displayed improvement in already solid ratios including his K:BB(3.2 '02; 2.2 career), K/9(7.6 '02; 8.6 career), H/9(5.6 '02; 9.4 career), and HR/9(.9 '02; 1.5 career). Although his G-F(.69 '02; .75 career) stands out as a potential trouble spot and could become bothersome with any rise in his hit rate, other than his flyball tendency, these skills compare nicely with Andy Pettitte's best seasons. Definitely look to acquire Lilly if you want a high-upside pitcher with significant long-term and short-term potential for wins.

April Overachiever: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-1 on 32:10 K:BB in 36 IP over 5 GS with 25 H, 2 HR, and a 1.75 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 9:5 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 3 GS with 12 H, 6 HR, and a 7.16 ERA.

Oakland: Mike Venafro, LH Reliever
1-1 on 8:7 K:BB in 16 IP over 17 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 31-15 G-F; 3.38 ERA.

Venafro's skills, aside from his respectable H/9(9.0 '02; 8.8 career), remain as poor as the other two Opening Day left-handed relievers on the Athletics, but his relatively decent WHIP has kept his ERA low. His K:BB(1.1 '02; 1.4 career), K/9(4.5 '02; 4.8 career), and HR/9(.6 '02; .4 career) are right around his average, while his dropping G-F(2.07 '02; 2.81 career) can partially explain the rise in his homer rate. The lack of homers is Venafro's primary skill as he's only allowed 9 HR in 200.2 IP, and that asset is what separates him from Mike Magnante and the now-DFA'd Mike Holtz on the A's. However since his other skills suggest he won't maintain this ERA, deal him now before his qualitative numbers begin to hurt your team.

April Overachiever: Billy Koch, RH Closer
Old stats: 5 Saves on 13:6 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 11 G with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 1.54 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 5 Saves on 13:6 K:BB in 14 IP over 13 G with 14 H, 3 HR, and a 8.36 ERA.

Seattle: Kazuhiro Sasaki, RH Closer
10 Saves on 25:5 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 18 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and a 12-18 G-F; 0.00 ERA.

I feel quite comfortable guaranteeing that, barring immediate season-ending injury, Sasaki's ERA will rise prior to the end of the year. His G-F(.67 '02; .81 career), always below 1.00 and dropping for the second straight year, suggests his perfect HR/9(0.0 '02; 1.1 career) will rise towards his career average. Both Sasaki's K:BB(5.0 '02; 3.3 career) and K/9(12.1 '02; 9.7 career) rank with the best pitchers in the majors, and his fantastically low H/9(4.8 '02; 6.3 career) helps him post very impressive WHIPs. He's probably the best bet in the American League for a couple dozen of guaranteed saves, so acquire him if you need bullpen help and can afford the likely expensive asking price.

April Overachiever: Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-0 on 8:5 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 9 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 3:2 K:BB in 7.1 IP over 7 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 2.45 ERA.

Tampa Bay: Steve Kent, LH Reliever
0-1 on 16:13 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 14 G with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 32-25 G-F; 3.04 ERA.

Owner of the best Rays' ERA of any pitcher with over 3 IP this season, Kent's emergence directly from A-ball as a Rule 5 pick should rank as one of the more impressive stories of the year. While his 1.2 K:BB is rather poor, his 6.1 K/9 is acceptable and his 7.6 H/9, .4 HR/9, and 1.28 G-F compare favorably to any reliever. His numbers would likely be more impressive if manager Hal McRae limited him to a traditional left-handed specialist role, but Kent's faced 66 right-handed batters and only 32 left-handers. Although his stats are far better against RHP, I expect he'll develop into a quality short reliever. However until his K:BB picks up, deal Kent to any team in desperate need of potential saves.

April Overachiever: Paul Wilson, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-2 on 15:9 K:BB in 28 IP over 4 GS with 29 H, 4 HR, and a 2.89 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 21:14 K:BB in 34 IP over 5 GS with 39 H, 2 HR, and a 5.03 ERA.

Texas: Ismael Valdes, RH Starter
3-5 on 27:17 K:BB in 54 IP over 9 GS with 50 H, 5 HR, and a 68-76 G-F; 3.83 ERA.

Although his skills remain faded shadows of the excellent rates he compiled in the mid-90's, Valdes succeeds by mixing in high-quality starts with the occasional disaster, as evidenced by his current 55421 five-start PQS log. He's roughly maintaining his H/9(8.3 '02; 8.8 career) and HR/9(.8 '02; 1.0 career) despite recurring G-F(.89 '02; 1.12 career) problems, but his K:BB(1.6 '02; 2.4 career) and K/9(4.5 '02; 6.4 career) remain below normally acceptable levels. While I can't recommend him with these weak ratios, considering his existing dominance potential, I see no reason not to keep him around, especially in leagues where you can bench him against the better offensive teams, allowing you to wait and focus on weeks where he's more likely to succeed against weaker teams.

April Overachiever: Kenny Rogers, LH Starter
Old stats: 3-0 on 22:12 K:BB in 40 IP over 6 GS with 30 H, 2 HR, and a 2.20 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-3 on 16:11 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 5 GS with 38 H, 2 HR, and a 4.12 ERA.

Toronto: Pete Walker, RH Swingman
0-0 on 9:6 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 12 G(1GS) with 15 H, 2 HR, and a 28-17 G-F; 2.70 ERA.

While he owns a somewhat impressive minor league track record, Walker appears unlikely to sustain his current level of success and his MLEs don't necessarily support skills above this level. Walker's K:BB(1.5 '02; 1.5 career) and K/9(4.9 '02; 4.8 career) are both rather low, and while I like his H/9(8.1 '02; 12.7 career) and improved HR/9(1.1 '02; .8 career), especially when supported by a still solid G-F(1.65 '02; 1.92 career), I see a lot of potential for trouble here. You should likely look to deal Walker to anyone focusing on his currently impressive ERA.

April Overachiever: Corey Thurman, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-0 on 11:11 K:BB in 17 IP in 12 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.
Recommendation: deal him now.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 5:11 K:BB in 7 IP in 5 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 6.43 ERA.

Today's Fantasy Rx: When corrected records showed that Colon was actually 28 instead of his listed age of 26, many observers felt that his recent seasons represented the peak of his ability, apparently forgetting that pitchers normally don't peak until sometime between the ages of 28 and 32. Colon's development this year allows us to rank him with the best pitchers in the league, so if you either own him or can acquire him as your ace, you'll likely own a better pitching staff than the majority of your fellow AL-only owners.