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May 20th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.
Anaheim: Brad Fullmer, DH The shockingly impressive Angels' offensive renaissance carried practically all their hitters to significantly improved levels of offensive production. Unfortunately Fullmer's improvement hasn't extended to his power numbers, and he remains on pace for his 2001 levels instead of a return to his 32 HR and 104 RBI of 2000. We can explain his high BA in light of his contact rate(.90 '02; .86 career), BB:K(.77 '02; .50 career), and relatively unchanged # pitches per plate appearance(3.24 '02; 3.32 career). The lack of power appears less reasonable when considering that 2002 is the fourth straight year of declining G-F ratio for Fullmer; a .80 G-F, his career best, indicates that his homers should increase. I don't expect everyone on Anaheim to continue their current paces, but if you need power, you might want to acquire Fullmer.
April Underachiever: Tim Salmon, OF
Bordick turns 37 in July, and we can attribute the general disappearance of his speed to his increasing age. I'm somewhat surprised that his current .684 OPS matches his career mark, although while his BB:K(.84 '02; .64 career), walk rate(.13 '02; .09 career), and #P/PA(3.78 '02; 3.71 career) support improvement, a falling contact rate(.84 '02; .87 career) does not. A career-low .63 G-F, less than half of his normal mark, indicates that he's attempting to maintain his previous power production without the requisite strength. I suspect his BA will edge up towards his .260 career mark, and since you shouldn't have expected much production when drafting Bordick, I see little reason not to wait for that probable improvement.
April Underachiever: Chris Singleton, OF
Clark has never finished a full season with an OPS below .800, and right now I'm mainly glad we avoided this "sleeper" in our 2002 drafts. His skills seem evenly split between the impressively improved BB:K(.53 '02; .48 career), G-F(1.73 '02; 1.48 career), and especially his contact rate(.84 '02; .75 career) and a suddenly falling walk rate(.08 '02; .12 career). Even his 3.87 #P/PA remains at his career average. I remain concerned about his poor averages thus far, but most statistical measures indicate that now would be a great time to acquire Clark.
April Underachiever: Trot Nixon, OF
After his staggeringly awful performance over the first two months of 2001, in which Clayton hit .115 and slugged .153 in 104 AB, I'm not too upset with his 2002 numbers, especially considering his impressive power output. Last season, Clayton hit .310 and slugged .468 after May, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him repeat that performance this year. While there's some erosion in his BB:K(.27 '02; .41 career), walk rate(.05 '02; .08 career), and #P/PA(3.46 '02; 3.63 career), his contact rate(.81 '02; .82 career) and G-F(1.46 '02; 1.77 career) are fairly on target for his performance. Jerry Manuel appears quite committed to continuing to start Clayton (with Valentin at 3B, over the far superior combo of Valentin and Joe Crede), so you shouldn't worry about any loss of playing time; Manuel's already touting Clayton for a Gold Glove. His BA will rise, and if he can maintain his current power pace while picking up a couple of steals, he could be one of the best roto shortstops in either league over the last few months; feel free to acquire him at your leisure.
April Underachiever: Carlos Lee, OF
His plate discipline appears as good as ever; Anderson continues to post solid marks in BB:K(.78 '02; .81 career), walk rate(.23 '02; .15 career), and #P/PA(4.00 '02; 3.92 career). Even his G-F(.81 '02; .95 career) indicates that he still owns decent power potential. The one certain problem is that his contact rate(.71 '02; .82 career) is now far below an acceptable level; he maintained his career average even while compiling last season's .202 BA. Brady turned 38 in January, and he might want to consider rollerblading full-time unless he can reduce his strikeout rate. We still like Anderson a little for his SB upside, but few players can maintain any worth with BAs like this. Deal or otherwise move Anderson unless you're carrying a half dozen .300 hitters and desperately need a couple extra steals.
April Underachiever: Ricky Gutierrez, 2B
The acquisition of Chris Truby sends him into his more traditional utility role, so hopefully Tiger manager Luis Pujols can use Paquette in high-percentage situations, boosting his performance towards the levels attained during his last three seasons in St. Louis. You won't find many greater risks considering his weak BB:K(.33 '02; .20 career), walk rate(.05 '02; .05 career), and #P/PA(3.24 '02; 3.51 career). However his G-F(1.38 '02; 1.24 career) isn't horrible and his contact rate(.84 '02; .76 career) shows excellent improvement. His BA will remain streaky, but I see no reason why he can't hit a dozen homers while giving you some position flexibility over the rest of the season; acquire him if you could use even that relatively meager production.
April Underachiever: Jose Macias, 2B/OF
About the only Royals that don't deserve mention here are Sweeney, Randa, and perhaps Dos Carlos. Every other player, aside from reserves Juan Brito and Brandon Berger, owns a BA below .236 and an OPS under .700. Ibanez's great 2001 blinded many people to his poor track record since his skills appeared decent. We can certainly expect gradual improvement in his averages as nothing in any of his skills indicates a probable departure from last year's performance. His BB:K(.46 '02; .49 career), walk rate(.07 '02; .09 career), and #P/PA(4.06 '02; 3.83 career) suggest his plate discipline remains about the same, as does his power with a relatively unchanged contact rate(.86 '02; .82 career) and G-F(1.17 '02; 1.04 career). I don't think his likely increasing production warrants acquiring him unless you're desperate for any decent at-bats, but you can safely wait for his BA to start heading upwards if you already own him.
April Underachiever: Brent Mayne, C
Unfortunately we can't attribute his difficulties to a bad schedule, as they've yet to face any AL West team, Boston, or the White Sox. They've only played six games against any good team, and all six occurred over the last ten days against the Yankees. I don't expect the Twins to maintain their current standing in the division much longer, although perhaps Mientkiewicz will improve in better hitters' parks. All five of his skill ratios are superior to his career levels, as his improving BB:K(1.16 '02; .82 career)), walk rate(.17 '02; .13 career), #P/PA(4.07 '02; 3.87 career), contact rate(.86 '02; .84 career), and G-F(.88 '02; .98 career) all impress me. Despite the Twins' approaching schedule difficulties, I'm not going to argue against the skill development here; acquire Mientkiewicz if you need help in any offensive category except steals.
April Underachiever: Cristian Guzman, SS
He's picked his averages up in the past week or so since Torre publicly spoke about the possibility of demoting Johnson. His 3.98 #P/PA is excellent, but his .28 BB:K, .07 walk rate, and .73 contact rate are far removed from his MLEs. I'm pleased with his solid .98 G-F, and he continues a rather unique skill trend, averaging one HBP about every 19 at-bats. I doubt many people would have expected anything close to this particular stat line, as most everyone thought he'd be a high-average, relatively low power hitter initially similar to Mark Grace and perhaps developing into Don Mattingly at best. If he can maintain his current production while boosting his averages and plate discipline, the latter prediction will appear more realistic. Johnson remains a better target for rebuilding teams than for 2002 contenders, although I see nothing wrong with any attempt to acquire him if you think he can help.
April Underachiever: Bernie Williams, OF
Frank Menechino's also underachieving, but his statistics project very closely to last season's numbers. Long's also very close to last year's stats when projecting his 2002 numbers out for the entire season, although his walks and strikeout appear somewhat off. He's certainly displaying problems with his BB:K(.21 '02; .47 career), and walk rate(.04 '02; .07 career) even as his #P/PA(3.72 '02; 3.71 career) shows little change. Although he's nudged his G-F(1.24 '02; 1.32 career) slightly down, his contact rate(.80 '02; .84 career) also indicates more fundamental problems at the plate. He easily could finish the year around .225/12/84/4/76, although we'll continue to hope for a higher BA and more homers. Only acquire him if you can handle the BA hit to gain the quantitative help.
April Underachiever: Ramon Hernandez, C
We certainly shouldn't be surprised by this performance, although we are disappointed since we expected he'd at least approach last year's numbers. Fortunately I believe we only own him on our two BBW points' teams, and we'll likely cut him from both this weekend. He's certainly off last year's pace, but now that I take a closer look at his stats, he could finish with something like .270/25/100/20/100. While I recognize that I'm probably still rather optimistic, especially regarding his potential steals, his skills appear fairly solid. He's still improving in BB:K(.66 '02; .41 career) and walk rate(.11 '02; .08 career) while maintaining a contact rate slightly above his .81 career average. His 3.63 #P/PA is a little worse than last year's 3.69 or his career 3.79 mark, but I'm more concerned about his rather interesting G-F trend.
Year HR G-F 1997 7 1.70 1998 24 1.31 1999 20 1.11 2000 19 .98 2001 37 1.13 2002 6 1.72Although I expect his G-F to fall as he should hit at least twenty homers, I'm just not comfortable recommending him while his great 2001 is still relatively fresh in most owners' minds. You should probably wait out the year unless you receive a substantial offer for him.
April Underachiever: Jeff Cirillo, 3B
Tampa reportedly plans to sit Hall until Friday to allow him to reportedly work on problems with his defensive fundamentals. His #P/PA(3.26 '02; 3.21 '01) and G-F(.96 '02; .90 '01) are both right on target with last year's numbers, and he's even improved his BB:K(.75 '02; .25 '01), walk rate(.05' 02; .02 '01), and contact rate(.94 '02; .91 '01). He's likely only facing the somewhat typical streakiness of most impatient hitters, and we definitely expect all his numbers to head up soon; we've kept him on all our Challenge teams since his low salary justifies even meager production. If his owner is even mildly dissatisfied with him in your league, accquire him now before his OPS jumps a couple hundred points.
April Underachiever: Greg Vaughn, OF
Texas DL'd him retroactive to May 11th with a strained right groin and muscle spasms in his back. Despite missing the last week, his quantitative stats seem fairly normal; only his averages are far below the level expected from someone who hit .330 last year. His plate discipline continues to improve, as evidenced by his BB:K(1.08 '02; .58 career), walk rate(.13 '02; .08 career), #P/PA(3.75 '02; 3.73 career), and contact rate(.88 '02; .86 career). While his 1.36 G-F is better than last year's 1.46, he's also not down to his 1.22 career mark. If Cat recovers from his injuries quickly to resume his normal lineup slot, I see no reason why he shouldn't maintain his current production while increasing his BA. Look to acquire him as long as he appears on track to recover by the end of the month.
April Underachiever: Carl Everett, OF
Mondesi's providing his normal contributions in all quantitative categories; his current RBI and Runs are even ahead of expectations. Unfortunately Mondesi's BA typically either deteriorates in the second half or remains unchanged at best. All his 2002 skill ratios also remain very close to his career norms, including his BB:K(.41 '02; .39 career), walk rate(.08 '02 and career), #P/PA(3.55 '02; 3.53 career), contact rate(.80 '02; .81 career), and G-F(1.23 '02; 1.13 career). He could easily rebound to his normal .279/.332/.495 season, but he hasn't exceeded that BA in five years; I find him more likely to continue on his current pace. Wait on Mondesi as long as necessary if you can handle this BA, since his production in the other four categories justifies his place on most roto teams.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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