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May
19th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Sunday Challenge Conversation, '02 Week 8
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Colorado: 6 Home games: 3 vs. San Diego; 3 vs. San Francisco.
Houston: 6 games: 3 Road at St. Louis; 3 Home vs. Chicago Cubs.

Boston: 7 Home games: 3 vs. Chicago White Sox; 4 vs. New York Yankees.

Chicago Cubs: 7 games: 4 Home vs. Pittsburgh; 3 Road at Houston.
Kansas City: 7 games: 3 Road at Anaheim; 4 Home vs. Texas.
St. Louis: 7 games: 1 Home vs. Cincinnati; 3 Home vs. Houston; 3 Road at Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati: 7 games: 1 Road at St. Louis; 3 Home vs. Florida; 3 Road at Atlanta.
New York Yankees: 7 games: 3 Home vs. Toronto; 4 Road at Boston.
Pittsburgh: 7 games: 4 Road at Chicago Cubs; 3 Home vs. St. Louis.

Arizona: 5 Home games: 2 vs. San Francisco; 3 vs. Los Angeles.
Montrea: 5 Home games: 2 vs. Atlanta; 3 vs. Philadelphia.

Atlanta: 5 games: 2 Road at Montreal; 3 Home vs. Cincinnati.

Minnesota: 5 games: 2 Home vs. Texas; 3 Road at Anaheim.

San Francisco: 5 Road games: 2 at Arizona; 3 at Colorado.

All other teams play six games.


Pitchers of interest with two starts:
Kevin Appier: Mon:KC(Stein); Sun:MIN(Milton)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SF(L.Hernandez); Sun:LA(Ishii)
Greg Maddux(?): Tue:@MON(Vazquez); Sun:CIN(Reitsma)?
Derek Lowe: Mon:CHW(Ritchie); Sat:NYY(O.Hernandez)
Darren Oliver: Tue:CHW(D.Wright); Sun:NYY(D.Wells)
Todd Ritchie: Mon:@BOS(Oliver); Sun:DET(Cornejo)
Jason Bere: Tue:PIT(J.Anderson); Sun:@HOU(C.Hernandez)
Jason Jennings: Tue:SD(Tankersley); Sun:SF(Jensen)
A.J. Burnett: Tue:@CIN(Reitsma); Sun:@NYM(D'Amico)
Carlos Hernandez: Tue:@STL(Simontacchi); Sun:CHC(Bere)
Jeremy Affeldt(?): Tue:@ANA(Sele); Sun:TEX(Valdes)
Kazuhisa Ishii: Tue:@MIL(Figueroa); Sun:@ARI(R.Johnson)
Eric Milton: Tue:TEX(Valdes); Sun:@ANA(Appier)
Javier Vazquez(?): Tue:ATL(Maddux); Sun:@PHI(Padilla)?
Jeff D'Amico: Tue:@PHI(Padilla); Sun:FLO(Burnett)
Orlando Hernandez: Mon:TOR(Lyon); Sat:@BOS(D.Lowe)
David Wells: Tue:TOR(Prokopec); Sun:@BOS(Oliver)
Barry Zito: Tue:BAL(R.Lopez); Sun:TB(Kennedy)
Vicente Padilla: Tue:NYM(D'Amico); Sun:@MON(Vazquez?)
Dennis Tankersley: Tue:@COL(Jennings); Sun:@MIL(Figueroa)
Jamie Moyer: Tue:TB(Kennedy); Sun: BAL(R.Lopez)
Woody Williams: Mon:CIN(Haynes); Sat:@PIT(K.Wells)
Joe Kennedy: Tue:@SEA(Moyer); Sun:@OAK(Zito)
Ismael Valdes: Tue:@MIN(Milton); Sun:@KC(Affeldt?)
Brandon Lyon: Mon:@NYY(O.Hernandez); Sun:CLE(Baez)

Diamond Challenge

Several interesting free agents are available today, and we'd already planned to acquire Corey Patterson and Nomar Garciaparra from this group. Along with next week's Vlad pickup, that would account for our 4 FA moves. However, we also need to take a closer look at these players to see if we want to spend our moves now.

We'll list the potential free agent, followed by the player he'd logically replace in our lineup. We already own Bonds, and we're not interested in Odalis Perez due to his relatively low K/9 and the Dodgers' poor offense.

	Cost	AB	BA	HR	RBI/R	SB	BB:K
Fick	600	140	.286	5	14/22	0	15:22
Hall	320	126	.198	2	15/10	0	6:8

Tampa plans to sit Hall for most of this week to both rest his sore thumb and work on his defensive fundamentals. I just don't expect Fick to continue at his current pace, and we'd rather have the extra $280 available for either superstar offensive players or stud pitchers. Despite likely losing a week of stats, we're confident in Hall's eventual rebound.


	Cost	AB	BA	HR	RBI/R	SB	BB:K
Nomar	1120	151	.298	4	31/29	1	11:13
Rollins	940	181	.315	4	17/27	8	15:28

	Cost	AB	BA	HR	RBI/R	SB	BB:K
Patterson	440	148	.318	1	12/16	10	10:22
Je.Giambi	500	147	.279	7	16/25	0	26:37

We'll likely continue to use both these slots most of the time instead of keeping them in a straight platoon with Uribe and Pierre. Our BA and Runs are great right now, but we could use more HR and RBI while not losing ground in steals. If we did keep these players in a platoon, Patterson would see 43 games at home, 27 for Rollins, 26 for Giambi, and 17 for Nomar. I don't believe the extra RBI and likely BA necessitate adding Nomar, especially when considering the loss in steals and $180 in cap room. The Cubs' offense will also likely remain inferior to Oakland's production, and gaining an extra $60, 16 home games, and two dozen steals isn't worth the drop in HR, RBI, Runs, and likely BA.

Another dilemma we face is when to add Bobby Hill for Luis Castillo. We expect them to produce similarly over the remainder of the year, and we could really use the extra $500 in salary. However, until Hill's BA heats up, we're not willing to risk losing ground in steals. Apparently we're going to leave our offense intact for the week.


	Cost	IP	K:BB	HR	H	G-F
M.Williams	900	15	11:4	0	11	2.36
Julio	750	21.2	15:8	4	21	.97

Here we find a logical and expected change. We're weak in saves largely because we failed to own Williams, Guardado, and Gagne from the beginning of the year, but we've compensated by staying fairly lucky with our starting pitchers. Baltimore's schedule disintegrates as they spend the next two weeks against Oakland and Seattle before facing the Yankees and Dodgers. Upcoming opponents also include San Diego, Philadelphia, Arizona, San Francisco, Anaheim, and Texas; the next truly weak team they face is Tampa Bay at the end of July.

The Pirates are done in Colorado and only have five games left in Houston all year. They spend the next two weeks against the struggling Cubs and Cardinals before facing Montreal, Milwaukee, Anaheim, and Cincinnati. Include factors such as their superior rotation, bullpen, and much weaker division and we're willing to risk their weaker offensive production. Since we're not spending moves on either Nomar or Patterson, we can safely grab Williams, pick up Vlad next week, and still retain one move for later in the year.


SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SF(L.Hernandez); Sun:LA(Ishii)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:NYY(Lilly)
Greg Maddux: Tue:@MON(Vazquez); Sun:CIN(Reitsma)?
Curt Schilling: Fri:LA(O.Perez)
Mike Mussina: Wed:TOR(Halladay)
Roger Clemens: Fri:@BOS(Burkett)
Matt Morris: Thu:HOU(Reynolds)
Tim Hudson: Fri:TB(P.Wilson)
Russ Ortiz: Fri:@COL(Chacon OR Stark OR Neagle)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:ATL(Maddux); Sun:@PHI(Padilla)?
Kerry Wood: Sat:@HOU(Mlicki)
Roy Oswalt: Wed:@STL(Kile)
Eric Gagne: 6 Road games: 3 at Milwaukee; 3 at Arizona.
Brian Lawrence: Wed:@COL(Hampton)

RP(4)
Jason Isringhausen: 7 games: 1 Home vs. Cincinnati; 3 Home vs. Houston; 3 Road at Pittsburgh.
Byung-Hyun Kim: 5 Home games: 2 vs. San Francisco; 3 vs. Los Angeles.
Mike Williams: 7 games: 4 Road at Chicago Cubs; 3 Home vs. St. Louis.
Eddie Guardado: 5 games: 2 Home vs. Texas; 3 Road at Anaheim.

With Kim and Guardado only seeing 5 games each, we'll continue to leave Gagne starting until we're comfortable with our position in saves. Randy's an automatic start, and we'd like to keep Maddux and Vazquez going since they have a chance to double. This likely leaves us with two open slots.

While we're interested in both Derek Lowe(Mon:CHW(Ritchie); Sat:NYY(O.Hernandez)), and Barry Zito(Tue:BAL(R.Lopez); Sun:TB(Kennedy)), we've been planning to add this week's Oakland pitcher since the beginning of the year. Zito's likely the best starter on that team at the moment, and he's coming off a 50545 in his last five starts. Lowe's facing two good offenses, so we'll just add Zito this week.

We need to cut someone, but with Lawrence missing the double in Colorado and now set to double next week at home against Colorado and Milwaukee, he's no longer an acceptable drop. Russ Ortiz has dominated in two straight starts since we first almost dropped him, and Maddux might double this week. There's really not a single starter we want to drop at the moment.

So we'll cut loose Bonds this week. We can see how each pitcher performs for the next week, and then cut one of them when we pick up Vlad as a free agent. The extra week of data should help us make a better pick, although Maddux and Ortiz will likely lead our list.

Pedro, Schilling, Mussina, Morris, and Hudson all have interesting one start weeks, so we'll just set Randy, Zito, and Gagne for now, and determine our other pitchers after we choose our lineup.

Colorado's home for another week, and we want to make every effort to play Sosa, Drew, Dunn, and Jason Giambi due to their teams' seven game schedules. Sosa looks especially interesting as he plays his three road games in Houston. Berkman and Ward both have three home games. San Diego's in Colorado and Milwaukee, so we'd also like to keep Klesko active. Along with Helton, Pierre, and Walker, we've used all our 1B, OF, and DH spaces while leaving Ichiro and Jeremy Giambi benched.

To leave enough room to take at least half-decent pitchers, we're going to bench ARod and his six road games in Minnesota and Kansas City. Rollins isn't great but we like Sosa's upside this week a lot more than what ARod might accomplish.

We obviously need to take the least expensive pitchers, so we'll grab Vazquez's potential double and Hudson at home against Tampa. Unfortunately, we only have $520 left for a starting pitcher, so this arrangement won't work.

We'll solve the problem by benching Berkman for the week and instead starting Jeremy Giambi at home against Baltimore and Tampa Bay. That move leaves us with 1340 for a starter, and while Clemens in Boston and Oswalt in St. Louis both offer a lot of upside, Matt Morris at home against Reynolds is a safer percentage play.


Shadow of the Umpire(1st lg; 1st div; tied for 1st overall)
& Interview with the Umpire(1st lg; 1st div; tied for 1st overall)
Week 8: May 20-May 26

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	Toby Hall		320
1B	Todd Helton		1980
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
SS	Juan Uribe		500
OF	Larry Walker		1530
OF	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	J.D. Drew		1010
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
OF	Jeremy Giambi		500
DH	Sammy Sosa		1900
DH	Ryan Klesko		1300

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Tim Hudson		1170
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Barry Zito		1080
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Jason Isringhausen	1290
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900


Internet Challenge

We're also going to ignore the offensive free agents here, and instead picking up Mike Williams. We'll rectify a serious buy error by dumping Keith Foulke. Next week, we'll likely pick up Vlad and dump Jorge Julio, but there's no need to dump Julio right now.

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SF(L.Hernandez)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:NYY(Lilly)
Greg Maddux: Tue:@MON(Vazquez)
Mike Mussina: Wed:TOR(Halladay)
Matt Morris: Thu:HOU(Reynolds)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:ATL(Maddux)
Roy Oswalt: Wed:@STL(Kile)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road games: 3 at Milwaukee; 3 at Arizona.
Brian Lawrence: Wed:@COL(Hampton)

No starts: Schilling, Clemens, Hudson, Ortiz, and Wood.

RP(4)
Jason Isringhausen: 4 Home games: 1 vs. Cincinnati; 3 vs. Houston.
Byung-Hyun Kim: 2 Home games vs. San Francisco.
Mike Williams: 4 Road games at Chicago Cubs
Eddie Guardado: 2 Home games vs. Texas.
Jorge Julio: 3 Road games at Oakland.

Gagne stays active in our quest to gain some ground in saves, from our five closers, we'll sit Kim since the difference in salaries between him and Guardado allows us to deploy more offense.

For the other five starting pitchers, our selections are base more on attrition. We can't start Lawrence in Colorado, and we'd rather not start Maddux and Oswalt on the road. We'll also pick up Zito in this week, along with dropping Greg Maddux, since Zito seems likely to post a few upcoming wins; we can also keep Mussina on the bench instead of facing Halladay. We'll drop Maddux since he normally posts a lower strikeout rate than any other starter even comparable to his salary level, and we're not too worried about ERA or WHIP.

The Colorado platoon remains active, and with the other changes, we have just enough cap room to carry Sosa instead of Berkman, although we'll have to bench ARod and his three road games.


The Umpire Hunter(1st lg; 7th overall)
Week 8a: May 20-May 23

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	Toby Hall		320
1B	Todd Helton		1980
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
SS	Juan Uribe		500
OF	Larry Walker		1530
OF	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	J.D. Drew		1010
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
OF	Jeremy Giambi		500
DH	Sammy Sosa		1900
DH	Ryan Klesko		1300

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Pedro Martinez		1770
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Barry Zito		1080
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Jason Isringhausen	1290
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750


Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball
(Same game = same rosters and moves for both teams)

We have no relievers on the bench, so we'll stay with Smoltz, Isringhausen, Kim, and Guardado until further notice.

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Tue:SF(L.Hernandez); Sun:LA(Ishii)
Curt Schilling: Fri:LA(O.Perez)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:NYY(Lilly)
Mike Mussina: Wed:TOR(Halladay)
Roger Clemens: Fri:@BOS(Burkett)
Tim Hudson: Fri:TB(P.Wilson)
Matt Morris: Thu:HOU(Reynolds)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:ATL(Maddux); Sun:@PHI(Padilla)?
Kerry Wood: Sat:@HOU(Mlicki)
Eric Gagne: 6 Road games: 3 at Milwaukee; 3 at Arizona.

We'll sit Pedro since we'd rather have Schilling going against a much weaker offensive team here, leaving us with Randy, Schilling, Hudson, Morris, Vazquez, and Gagne.

Hall will sit since he likely won't play until next weekend.

To maximize both games played and give our players the best home/road and ballpark advantages, we'll make several changes to our normal lineup. ARod, Steve Cox, and Floyd will all sit as they spend the week on the road; we don't mind playing Jimenez for ARod since San Diego spends half the week in Coors. The Colorado platoon stays active, and we'll start the following players, each scheduled for seven games: Jason Giambi, Nick Johnson, Sosa, Patterson, Dunn, and Drew. With out last offensive slot, we only have the funds available for Daryle Ward or Jeremy Giambi, and Ward should play six games since Houston isn't scheduled against any left-handers. We don't want to bench Berkman, but we can't find the extra $950 necessary to keep him active.


The Umpire Chronicles(1st lg; 91st overall)
& Umpire with a Soul(4th lg; 272nd overall)
Week 8: May 20-May 26

C	Paul Lo Duca		1640
C	A.J. Pierzynski		1000
1B	Jason Giambi		3320
1B	Nick Johnson		1200
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1800
2B	Jose Ortiz		1500
3B	Eric Chavez		2270
3B	Aramis Ramirez		1590
SS	Juan Uribe		1300
SS	D'Angelo Jimenez	1000
OF	Larry Walker		2790
OF	J.D. Drew		2310
OF	Juan Pierre		1880
OF	Adam Dunn		1610
OF	Daryle Ward		1590
OF	Corey Patterson		1370
DH	Todd Helton		3400
DH	Sammy Sosa		3480

SP	Randy Johnson		3580
SP	Curt Schilling		3160
SP	Tim Hudson		2660
SP	Matt Morris		2650
SP	Javier Vazquez		2600
SP	Kerry Wood		2300
SP	Eric Gagne		1230
RP	John Smoltz		2610
RP	Jason Isringhausen	2370
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		2230
RP	Eddie Guardado		1690


Today's Fantasy Rx: "The Truth", tonight's X-Files series finale, should clear up some of the show's major mysteries. For any current or former X-Philes out there, we strongly recommend watching tonight at 7pm CDT on Fox.


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