Today's Fantasy Rx

On our third day of discussing May trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, improve their ERA by at least 1.50 from April to May. I focused on pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in each month over the past five years.

Ron Villone, LHP, PIT: -4.94 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	9/17	50.1	71	10	37:31	2-2/0	6.97
May	5/39	80	52	7	56:48	5-1/1	2.03

02 Apr	5/5	25.1	27	2	16:14	2-2/0	6.04

While I definitely see promising signs here in the low hit rate and homer rate, his command remains about the same and there's been no significant improvement in ERA. I see a definite possibility that his ERA should go down this month but I don't see it hitting his normal levels. Anything lower than a 5.00 would be surprising, although I might look to acquire him if he has a nice two-start week against weak offenses.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RHP, SEA: -4.13 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	1/42	55.2	82	13	45:30	3-4/0	7.28
May	3/51	91.1	86	11	51:24	7-4/2	3.15

02 Apr	0/9	14.2	7	0	8:5	3-0/1	0.00

I remain very unimpressed with Hasegawa despite his 2002 stats falling into the same pattern as past years, aside from the Mariners' defense both keeping his hits allowed down and helping him to avoid any earned runs thus far. There's far more downside here than any potential improvement, although wait at least another few weeks before moving him if he's already on your team.

Eddie Guardado, LHP, MIN: -3.15 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/57	47.1	52	7	46:21	5-3/1	5.89
May	0/57	42.2	33	7	46:20	5-2/1	2.74

02 Apr	0/13	13	6	1	18:4	0-0/10	1.38

One of the biggest roto surprises of the year, Guardado's statistical history suggests he might be able to maintain this pace for at least another month. If he's available at a reasonable price, look to acquire Guardado to solidify your bullpen.

Tim Hudson, RHP, OAK: -3.07 ERA
99-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	12/12	64.2	63	9	61:34	5-5/0	5.85
May	11/11	77.2	58	7	63:33	6-0/0	2.78

02 Apr	6/6	43.1	33	2	32:13	3-2/0	1.87

Seven of the twelve pitchers discussed today have expected ERA decreases currently greater than their actual ERAs in April. While Hudson certainly has gotten lucky to some extent, he continues to display one of the best skill sets of any player in baseball. Expect him to approach twenty wins with a sub-3.00 ERA for the season, and if you need an ace, he's certainly someone to acquire.

Scott Sullivan, RHP, CIN: -3.04 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/46	58	65	9	39:34	3-4/2	5.90
May	0/61	97.2	79	11	81:31	2-3/1	2.86

02 Apr	0/16	17.1	10	1	19:6	3-0/1	2.08

Sullivan remains one of the most heavily worked relievers in the game, but unlike so many other pitchers, he appears able to handle the strain of over a hundred innings a year out of the bullpen. Considering his normal command problems in April, 2002 appears a welcome respite from his normally poor numbers. I wouldn't pay much to acquire him since he can't improve much more, although he's certainly one of the best non-closing available relief options in the majors to add to your bullpen.

Alan Embree, LHP, SD: -2.48 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/47	40.2	48	6	42:21	3-2/0	6.42
May	0/51	45.2	45	6	45:20	0-0/1	3.94

02 Apr	0/14	8.2	9	1	9:3	2-1/0	2.08

Embree's simply dreadful first half last season likely boosted his numbers above normal levels, so we can basically view his very successful 2002 as a return to form. He won't be a great roto source as a left-handed specialist, and remains vulnerable as he faces some of the best hitters in the game, but if you need a cheap reliever that shouldn't hurt you, Embree is a fine pitcher to acquire.

Livan Hernandez, RHP, SF: -2.29 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	22/22	134.1	173	20	97:54	4-13/0	6.03
May	23/23	166	190	17	114:50	9-7/0	3.74

02 Apr	6/6	47	39	4	20:8	4-2/0	2.30

I don't see how he can maintain his great K:BB ratio, especially since he's striking out less than a batter every two innings. However his skill set is solid across the board, and you probably should at least wait on Hernandez at the moment since he could hold this value through May.

Ryan Rupe, RHP, TB: -2.29 ERA
99-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	10/10	51	68	11	38:24	1-6/0	8.47
May	8/10	51	42	9	38:18	2-4/0	6.18

02 Apr	5/5	30.1	29	2	24:5	3-2/0	5.04

Rupe was one of the early fantasy surprises of the season, and considering his horrendous ERA in past seasons, I can understand the surprise despite normally decent skills. As long as he can maintain his great hit and homer rates, he remains a good target to acquire since his ERA might keep his value depressed for another week or two.

Jim Parque, LHP, CHW: -2.18 ERA
98-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	14/14	81	92	14	35:34	6-5/0	5.78
May	13/14	75	82	7	45:36	4-6/0	3.60

02 Apr	0.2	3	5	2	1:2	0-1/0	9.00

We know that Parque was never a particularly good pitcher who really shouldn't have been in the majors at any point, so both his arm problems and statistical struggles are quite unsurprising. I don't really expect to see him in Chicago again this year unless he pitches great in AAA while not running off his mouth about how he really belongs in the majors. Stay away from him until you see some great K:BB numbers in at least AAA, as he can do significant damage to your qualitative numbers if given the opportunity.

Mike Hampton, LHP, COL: -1.77 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	28/28	172.1	184	13	112:79	12-8/0	4.33
May	29/29	200.2	183	8	128:68	15-6/0	2.56

02 Apr	6/6	32.1	46	1	16:22	1-3/0	6.96

I'll be surprised if he's currently owned in more than 10% of leagues since he just seems lost right now. He's never posted great skill numbers, but he almost needs to be hiding an injury to adequately explain his terrible start to the year. If he's hiding on your likely very deep bench, you might want to wait since there's a chance Colorado could move him to a safer environment despite his no-trade clause; if you don't expect a trade, then cut him now and at least pick up a decent middle reliever.

Felix Rodriguez, RHP, SF: -1.63 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/37	45.1	41	5	43:24	1-1/5	4.17
May	0/45	49.2	38	2	52:25	3-3/0	2.54

02 Apr	0/12	11.1	10	1	8:7	0-2/0	5.56

We've prized FRod as a keeper for the past few years, so his control struggles thus far are truly disappointing. We're already looking to move him due to his weak K:BB, although considering his statistical history, you might want to wait another month to see if his numbers improve.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP, MIN: -1.50 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	11/31	79.2	96	7	41:43	1-8/8	6.55
May	11/33	98	109	13	67:26	6-5/8	5.05

02 Apr	0/11	15.2	11	1	12:4	1-0/0	1.15

Hawkins owns one of the strangest career paths of the last decade by rising to the majors as a highly-regarded starting prospect despite generally weak skills above A-ball, failing miserably as a starter, and then impressing no one as a long reliever. He then set a major league record for most consecutive saves without blowing a save opportunity at the beginning of a career. Of course he failed as a closer due to bad command, and now he's re-establishing himself as a suddenly competent setup man for a contending team. Even his 1.94 G-F ratio is easily the best of his career, so against all of Hawkins' statistical history, I'm comfortable in recommending him as someone to acquire if you need cheap help in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.

Normally improving pitchers who've spent the season either on the DL or in the minors include Frank Rodriguez(-3.00 ERA), Curt Leskanic(-2.96), Brian Bohanon(-2.75), John Frascatore(-2.20 ERA), Mark Petkovsek(2.00), Pat Rapp(-1.93), Jay Powell(-1.81), and Steve Parris(-1.62).

Retired pitchers who normally improved in May include Mark Gardner(-2.10 ERA) and Kevin Tapani(-1.65).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Endy Chavez, OF, MON at AAA: .363/.445/.520 in 102 AB with 2 HR, 13 RBI, 18 R, 6/10 SB%, and 16:12 BB:K. I strongly believe they should have stayed with Bergeron but Chavez could be a decent short-term replacement. The significant increase in plate discipline appears quite impressive even considering the organizational development at the major league level, so while I'd only bid a couple bucks of FAAB if we needed him, Chavez is an acceptable option for most teams.