Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our second day of May trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past five years, lose at least .50 BA and .100 OPS from April to May. I focused on players who compiled 100 AB in both April and May over the past five years.

Mike Lowell, 3B, FLO: -.126. BA; -.345. OPS
98-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	184	14	26	.310	.356	.554
May	125	8	24	.184	.237	.328

02 Apr	104	9	16	.385	.434	.673

I don't see anything in Lowell's history that suggests he can maintain this elevated OPS. We've seen a couple of articles about how even Lowell is worried that he normally slumps in May, and most statistical evidence indicates he's right to be worried. While I expect he'll have a career year, I also think he might see a short term slump per his normal May stats, but as long as you can handle a small BA hit, wait for the summer rebound.

Moises Alou, OF, CHC: -.66 BA; -.278 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	260	35	37	.373	.440	.715
May	349	47	49	.307	.390	.487

02 Apr	30	2	5	.133	.188	.267

Alou can't really perform worse in May than he did in April, and considering he was recovering from an injury again, he should be able to perform up to his usual level in May. As his value should be depressed from his problems thus far this year, consider an attempt to acquire Alou, especially if you need BA help.

Craig Counsell, IF, ARI: -.92 BA; -.277 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	148	29	19	.270	.391	.392
May	180	25	28	.178	.278	.228

02 Apr	96	7	15	.292	.337	.354

Counsell's right on target for a May slump, one now even more likely due to his significantly worse April BB:K than in past years. Strongly consider a deal if you can pick up most any other starting infielder in return, as all Counsell normally provides is a decent BA and some runs, and he might not even be able to manage that for the next several weeks.

Eli Marrero, UT, STL: -.90 BA; -.261 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	146	6	30	.288	.323	.507
May	167	11	19	.198	.246	.323

02 Apr	63	5	9	.317	.368	.444

He's 0-for-9 so far in May and running a 25 AB hitless streak, so you missed your chance to deal him three weeks ago at the peak of his value. Since most of his owners grabbed him at only a buck or two, he'll still be able to significantly outearn his cost as long as he breaks out of his current slump fairly soon.

Adam Kennedy, 2B, ANA: -.55 BA; -.230 OPS
99-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	153	13	18	.301	.357	.497
May	191	11	19	.246	.289	.335

02 Apr	74	4	7	.230	.288	.297

Kennedy's normally sparkling April was even worse than his average May and I'm beginning to rethink our somewhat elevated expectations for him in his age 26 with 2+ years of experience season. While I wouldn't move him with his value currently so low, don't wait too much longer for a replacement if he continues to show no improvement.

Shannon Stewart, OF, TOR: -.64 BA; -.212 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	324	41	38	.343	.425	.509
May	387	30	50	.279	.334	.388

02 Apr	99	5	8	.313	.364	.465

Stewart should be peaking in value but he currently seems more likely to continue suffering an off year. He hasn't yet played this May due to sore hamstrings. He should likely hope for a trade to a team without turf if he's to overcome his injury concerns and re-emerge a top outfielder. Consider a deal for a comparable player who lacks these injury problems.

John Vander Wal, OF, NYY: -.67 BA; -.208 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	179	25	41	.318	.402	.581
May	211	41	57	.251	.372	.403

02 Apr	40	3	7	.325	.372	.425

While Vander Wal appeared more comfortable in a limited role, he performed rather impressively over the last few years in a full-time role. Due to his advancing age, he'll likely struggle to maintain his power performance as evidenced by his low SLG this year. You might want to deal him before his BA falls below .300.

Vinny Castilla, 3B, ATL: -.56 BA; -.200 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	419	36	58	.296	.355	.544
May	500	31	70	.240	.287	.412

02 Apr	98	4	19	.204	.240	.367

We felt this was perhaps the worst free agent signing of the off-season, especially considering that it forced Chipper away from 3B and left Betemit in 2B/SS competition with Furcal and Giles, both of whom also deserve to start full-time. While we expected a slightly better performance from Castilla thus far, you'll probably need to suffer through another month or two of barely single-digit value before he'll heat up enough for you to deal him for a competent replacement.

Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B, MIN: -.53 BA; -.196 OPS
98-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	154	17	23	.331	.399	.578
May	169	28	24	.278	.385	.396

02 Apr	93	14	17	.280	.376	.419

The only impressive aspect to his April this year is a walk rate up to .15, although we'd prefer a higher BA now. We're confident that his increased plate discipline will help him avoid his normal May slump and instead at least maintain his current value, so you may want to look into a trade to acquire him if his current owner expects that slump.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, LA: -.69 BA; -.177 OPS
98-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	163	25	31	.313	.397	.479
May	242	16	52	.244	.290	.409

02 Apr	92	10	12	.304	.371	.446

Jim Tracy needs to move Beltre up from the #7 slot for him to build on a perfectly respectable April. Beltre fell from his normal .15 walk rate down to .11, and only a similarly reduced strikeout rate has enabled him to maintain his value. Your best option is to wait for Tracy to finally switch his order, and only then should you target Beltre in trade.

Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW: -.83 BA; -.176 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	311	22	53	.280	.335	.463
May	254	19	49	.197	.260	.362

02 Apr	105	4	10	.371	.387	.562

A fall from a .07 walk rate to .04 suggests that he can't maintain this BA or OBP, but with two of the most disciplined power hitters in the game immediately ahead of him, he's going to continue to see good pitches with men on base. Expect these numbers to fall, but since we felt Konerko was in line for a career year, don't expect them to fall much past his normal April performance. He's still a good player to acquire if you need help anywhere on offense aside from speed.

Terrence Long, OF, OAK: -52. BA; -.154 OPS
99-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	124	11	21	.306	.365	.500
May	224	18	28	.254	.305	.406

02 Apr	100	4	24	.200	.231	.340

We picked up Long a couple of weeks ago for Steve Cox in a deal that hasn't really benefited us thus far. His BB:K and walk rate are both quite bad and he's even performing below his normal April level. A May slump might see him demoted in favor of Byrnes or Colangelo but I expect Oakland will give him every opportunity to play out of this funk. I don't see how his value can decrease much lower, so you could acquire him very cheaply if his owner panics, although make certain not to overpay since he might not rebound for another month or two.

Players that qualified but lost less than .150 OPS include Corey Koskie(-.84 BA/-.135 OPS) and Chipper Jones(-.60 BA/-.105 OPS).

While Mark Quinn didn't play in April due to his cracked rib, he normally declines .54 in BA and .260 in OPS. Matt Williams will miss most of the season with a broken left fibula, avoiding a .50 loss of BA and .152 loss of OPS. Dean Palmer will miss the remainder of the season after neck surgery, evading his normal -.50 BA and -.117 OPS decline.

Part-time or reserve players who normally slump badly include Luis Lopez, MIL(-.158 BA/-.374 OPS), Jeff Reboulet(-.113 BA/-.337 OPS), Joe McEwing(-.118 BA, -.226 OPS), Tom Lampkin(-.82 BA/-.185 OPS), Keith Lockhart(-.63 BA/-.156 OPS), Chris Stynes(-.68 BA/-.136 OPS), and Damian Jackson(-.68 BA/-.116 OPS).

David Segui(-.49 BA/-.138 OPS), Mike Matheny(-.49 BA/-.133 OPS), Kenny Lofton(-.49 BA/-.96 OPS) and Eric Owens(-.50 BA/-.90 OPS) barely missed qualifying, but all were close enough that I thought they deserved mention.

Former major leaguers Operation Shutdown Bell(-.77 BA/-.146 OPS) and Glenallen Hill(-.58 BA/-.125 OPS) also normally deteriorated in May.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Begin taking a close look at the standings since second division teams still suffering from injuries might look to rebuild in the next week or two. You need to remain aware of possible trade options, and contemplate approaching the weakest teams in your league with "I know it's still early, but considering your injuries and other troubles to date, would you be interested in building for next season with some of my promising keepers?"