Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players who typically break out or slump in May. To qualify for consideration, a player must have 100 AB in both April and May over the last five years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .50 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. I discovered that over thirty players improved by at least that much, and another two dozen or so declined by similar amounts. Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and the following two days we'll spend on improving and then declining pitchers.

The top two batters listed here are actually a couple AB short in one of the months but I list them anyway due to their immmediate potential. I'll discuss in detail everyone with an OPS improvement of .150 or more before I list the remaining qualified players.

Raul Casanova, C, MIL: +.141 BA; +.451 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	95	7	22	.147	.210	.168
May	104	8	15	.288	.348	.481

02 Apr	61	7	12	.197	.275	.213

I recommended that you potentially look to deal him two weeks ago, and while that seemed reasonable at the time, a dropping G-F now makes him an attractive target to acquire. All his stats actually look very good compared to his historical numbers, so if you need a catcher, Casanova should be a fairly cheap acquisition at the moment.

Peter Bergeron, OF, MON: +.99 BA; +.297 OPS
99-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	149	16	37	.168	.248	.228
May	90	10	15	.267	.340	.433

02 Apr	104	22	33	.202	.341	.269	

Bergeron fails our criteria by 10 career May AB, but I included him because he posted the second greatest OPS difference of any batter and he usually winds up demoted in May due to his awful start. If given the opportunity, I expect he'll rebound strongly and perform capably as a lead-off hitter. I recommend a cautious attempt to acquire him for a minimal price if possible since he's actually performing better than expected to date.

Todd Helton, 1B, COL: +.93 BA; +.289 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	327	52	47	.278	.378	.523
May	375	69	44	.371	.467	.723

02 Apr	93	14	20	.301	.394	.538

I wish his walk rate and overall plate discipline looked a bit more impressive but the across-the-board average improvement bodes very nicely for the immediate future. With the Rockies about to begin a two-week homestand next Monday, now might be your last opportunity to acquire some of their stud hitters, specifically Helton and Pierre.

Roger Cedeno, OF, NYM: +.119 BA; +.268 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	208	33	39	.197	.306	.255
May	367	53	70	.316	.401	.428

02 Apr	89	5	18	.202	.242	.236

The sharply low walk rate is certainly a concern but the strikeouts aren't too bad. He's still set to emerge as one of the primary speed threats in the National League in the very near future as long as he can find consistent playing time, and considering his relatively high salary, I can't see the Mets leaving him on the bench for long. Certainly consider an attempt to acquire Cedeno if your team needs speed.

Darren Fletcher, C, TOR: +.63 BA; +.251 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	333	17	27	.255	.301	.387
May	292	17	28	.318	.357	.562

02 Apr	52	3	4	.192	.224	.288

Last season Fletcher posted a .195/.253/.247 in 77 April at-bats before running off a more respectable .241/.294/.418 in 79 May at-bats. He's definitely slowing now that he's 35 although there's no reason not to wait for the expected improvement if you already own him. I might even consider dealing for him if I needed a catcher but we already own him on two of our AL teams.

Brook Fordyce, C, BAL: +.94 BA; +.245 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	157	12	25	.197	.256	.280
May	179	13	30	.291	.345	.436

02 Apr	22	1	4	.045	.125	.045

Geronimo Gil's injury might give Fordyce the necessary opportunity to at least establish himself as a viable alternative as starting catcher. Ignore his April stats due to the miniscule sample size and instead focus on the impressive second-month improvement over the past five years. He won't be a great asset to your team if you acquire him but he certainly shouldn't hurt you and might even help with a little power.

Gabe Kapler, OF, TEX: +.68 BA; +.234 OPS
98-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	119	12	20	.227	.298	.403
May	193	30	26	.295	.391	.544

02 Apr	67	6	12	.284	.342	.373

We can't be certain if he'll receive the necessary playing time but it certainly appears as if he's still in line for a potential breakout season considering his comparitively very solid BA and OBP. Even if his power is a bit down, Texas has enough power elsewhere that they simply need Kapler to consistently get on-base as much as possible. His playing time is likely too risky, especially if you can't keep players traded to the other league, for you to actively try to trade for him, but certainly wait for the expected power boost if you already own him.

Barry Bonds, OF, SF: +.71 BA; +.223 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	370	89	52	.270	.415	.617
May	349	96	72	.341	.481	.771

02 Apr	64	32	5	.375	.600	.828

Can he really get much better? He exploded last year from April's .240/.363/.747 to a ridiculous .369/.547/1.036 in May, and we see little reason why he can't at least approach that 1.583 OPS this May. Bonds then normally regresses in June and July before exploding for the last two months, so you should probably wait for at least another month before potentially selling high.

Ryan Klesko, OF, SD: +.52 BA; +.222 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	372	43	64	.250	.325	.446
May	417	62	80	.302	.391	.602

02 Apr	69	11	9	.333	.420	.551

I'm not sure to what extent Klesko can improve on these numbers but I'm sure looking forward to finding out since we own him in two NL leagues and on three Challenge teams. His speed might disappear as fast as it first appeared back in 2000, although his apparently increased production level should compensate. You might want to deal him now considering his career-best .985 OPS; of course he might challenge for the MVP if you keep him around, so you can't really go wrong as long as you insure you receive fair value in any trade.

Single Bush, 2B, TOR: +.91 BA; +.189 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	112	7	27	.214	.273	.259
May	177	10	34	.305	.354	.362

02 Apr	65	2	9	.215	.250	.246

If you own him and need his dozen steals, there's no reason to dump him after his worst historical month. Hope he has a hot May so you can then deal him, although we'd keep him around if he was on any of our teams.

David Bell, 3B, SF: +.81 BA; +.185 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	271	19	46	.199	.255	.347
May	372	26	55	.280	.322	.465

02 Apr	91	9	15	.275	.337	.440

We liked Bell before the year and still believe he could establish career-bests in many catregories this year. His improved walk rate to date reinforces our opinion, although make sure you don't deal too much if you seek to acquire him.

Johnny Damon, OF, BOS: +.59 BA; +.183 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	429	41	63	.242	.305	.345
May	519	49	41	.301	.357	.476

02 Apr	86	8	6	.360	.412	.535

He'll still likely slump at some point but he certainly appears headed towards a career year. A 9/10 SB% qualifies him as a very solid five-category player. If you need a high-priced offensive addition, Damon should likely be near the top of your list of players to acquire.

Joe Randa, 3B, KC: +.75 BA; +.161 OPS
97-01	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	445	34	76	.238	.299	.369
May	508	50	69	.313	.378	.451

02 Apr	68	10	10	.279	.354	.471

Randa still likely won't hit for much power but he'll definitely provide help in BA, RBI, and Runs. I don't see him as a great acquisition unless you really ned AB from your corner guy but definitely wait for further improvement at this time.

Preston Wilson, OF, FLO: +.59 BA; +.161 OPS
	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	263	28	85	.259	.329	.460
May	296	26	77	.318	.379	.571

02 Apr	101	11	27	.248	.345	.376

I'm concerned about his low SLG but the small improvement in both BB:K and walk rate suggests future BA development. Don't rush out to get Wilson unless you need a HR/SB guy, although I'd definitely wait for this probable improvement if you own him.

Carlos Guillen, SS, SEA: +. BA; +. OPS
	AB	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
April	135	17	34	.163	.257	.252
May	119	16	24	.269	.363	.311

02 Apr	86	11	13	.337	.408	.525

His April was simply amazing considering his statistical history. Guillen still seems a very attractive target to acquire because of his sudden power development even if I'm skeptical of him maintaining even an .800+ OPS long-term, not to mention his current .887. Don't expect much improvement although I think a .750 OPS for the next few months will certainly help out some roto teams.

Edgar Martinez certainly qualified at +.68 BA and +.195 OPS, but Edgar likely won't return until at least the middle of the month from surgery to remove a tendon in his left hamstring. However he might still match his normal May improvement after only managing a .243/.356/.297 in 37 April at-bats.

Players that qualified but posted OPS improvement of under .150 include Ramon Hernandez(+.67/.145), Cliff Floyd(+.62/+.144), Melvin Mora(+.89/+.132), Steve Finley(+.53/+.125)Tony Womack(+.59/+.114), Trot Nixon(+.68/+.106), and Brad Ausmus(+.54/+.101).

Other players who qualified but don't start every day include Luis Alicea(+.52/.147), Lenny Harris(+.60/+.188), Todd Hundley(+.50/+.157), Chad Kreuter(+.84/+.145), Darren Lewis(+.90/+.154), and Mark Loretta(+.69/+.113). Any of them would be a reasonable FAAB pickup this week.

Today's Fantasy Rx: A counter-Rx, since after seeing Spider-Man on Friday, we must now advise "Don't go see Spider-Man, especially if you've ever read even one comic involving him, even anything in the Clone Saga". I was hoping to add a longer review to this but decided instead to add more players to the above article, although I might revisit this in a day or two if time permits.