Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to the National League Tout Wars rosters here.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along on the site, I'll continue to review the teams in the order that the website lists them.

Owner: Rick Wilton
Site: Baseball Weekly Hot Sheet
$ Left: $0.
Split: $178H/$82P = 68/32.
Reserve roster: Mario Ramos, Tony Graffanino, Dustan Mohr, Chris Latham, Justin Duchscherer, and Jeff Farnsworth.
First player purchased: Mike Mussina, $27.

Nice pick: Mike Mussina, $27; he'll win the Cy and earn the most 5x5 value, making him a very safe investment at this price.
Top sleeper: Justin Duchscherer, R; I expect him to be recalled if any of the A's starters run into trouble, and he could rack 10 wins by the end of the year.
Potential bust: Ben Grieve, $17; despite the potential for a strong comeback, his power appears gone at least for now. His G/F ratio has risen from 1.42 in 1999 to 1.51 and finally 2.13 last year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Mario Ramos and Chris Latham.
Early good luck: Rey Sanchez($3) won the 2B job in Boston, Darrell May($1) will be in the rotation when he returns from injury.
Early bad luck: John Burkett($12) and Jay Powell($1) are still stuck on the DL.
Category to trade: Speed.

While I think he found good value in catching ($11 combined for Pierzynski and Fletcher) and relievers ($12 combined for Groom and Rhodes), his top offensive players(Damon@$36 and Cruz@$27) will struggle to reach their salaries. The only mid-salaried offensive players with probable upside are Steve Cox($12) and Garret Anderson($20), and neither of them hit in especially strong lineups. As he's already scrounging for saves and lacks depth, I'm concerned about his ability to both remain healthy and strong in most categories.

Summary: Picking up a closer will allow him to remain the first division, but I just don't see enough upside in these players for him to finish in the money.

Owner: Scott Pianowski
Site: Rotowire
$ Left: $0.
Split: $180H/$80P = 69/31.
Reserve roster: Dewon Brazleton, Chris Gomez, Darren Oliver, Damian Rolls, Bob File, and Danny Patterson.
First player purchased: Ivan Rodriguez, $25.

Nice pick: Alex Rodriguez, $40; he'll go for more than this in almost every other league, and this is still a bargain.
Top sleeper: John Rocker, $5; even if he struggles, he'll likely earn this salary in saves alone.
Potential bust: Kazuhiro Sasaki, $28; he's still a top closer, but with the Mariners winning at least twenty less games this year, he just won't have as many opportunities.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Dewon Brazleton.
Early good luck: Brady Anderson($1) appears likely to see more playing time than Branyan or Milton Bradley, and John Rocker will likely close until Zimmerman returns.
Early bad luck: Luis Rivas($18) will miss two weeks with his injury and Russ Johnson($4) began the season on the DL after winning the starting job.
Category to trade: Strikeouts.

He invested a significant amount of money in Indians(Diaz($4), Branyan($12), Anderson($1), Cordero($1), Sabathia($13), and Finley($4)) and Tigers(Paquette($5), Halter($6), D.Young($20), Sparks($6), and Patterson. Rivas, Singleton($14), Febles($10), Buehrle($16), Rocker($5), and Stein($1) also have played in the AL Central within the last year, so around two-thirds of this team appears to have been drafted based on their affiliation with the AL Central. Considering that the entire division is fairly weak, unlikely to produce a 90 win team, and features some of the worst hitters and relievers in baseball, he's definitely going to have trouble with R, RBI, WHIP, and ERA. Spending $85 up front to draft ARod, IRod, and Bret Boone makes a lot of sense, but he'll need several career years to remain very competitive.

Summary: Based on his strong AL Central affiliation, I'd be surprised if he finished in the first division.

Owner: Byron Cox & Bob Kohm
Site: Rotojunkie
$ Left: $7.
Split: $177H/$76P = 70/30.
Reserve roster: Carlos Baerga, Gil Meche, Ken Harvey, Jeff DaVanon, Drew Henson, and Esteban Loaiza.
First player purchased: Nomar Garciaparra, $28.

Nice pick: Magglio Ordonez, $37; he'll have a slow start due to playing in colder weather for most of April, but he should breeze past this salary by the end of the year.
Top sleeper: Paul Shuey, $2; I remain convinced that he could be a great closer if given the job for a couple months, and he's a great backup for any team drafting Wickman($23)
Potential bust: Paul Abbott, $7; if he even manages to stay healthy, I expect him to struggle to earn more than a buck or two.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Gil Meche and Drew Henson.
Early good luck: Nomar's healthy and hitting with significant power.
Early bad luck: Cordova($9)'s just now coming off the DL, Matt Wise($2) is stuck in the minors, and Chavez($30) missed a few games with more back problems.
Category to trade: Relief help with Shuey, Hasegawa($3), and Miceli($1).

Leaving $7 on the table will hurt in almost any league, and they bought 8 players at $1 or $2. While Chavez and Ordonez are a great basis for any offense, I'm concerned about the health and playing time of most of their other position players. Milton($19), David Wells($10), and Abbott will leave them in ERA trouble, requiring them to keep their middle relievers for the ERA/WHIP help. There's also not much saves' upside as Shuey would just replace Wickman if needed.

Summary: The top 3 offensive stars can carry any team if they all have career years, but they need to redo their bench very quickly if they want to stay with the pack.

Owner: Rich Pike
Site: All-Star Stats
$ Left: $12.
Split: $185H/$63P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: Eric Munson, Bob Wells, Jason Grimsley, Gary Glover, Mark Wohlers, and Mike Venafro.
First player purchased: Dan Wilson, $1.

Nice pick: Manny Ramirez, $33; he could miss a month and still earn this salary.
Top sleeper: Doug Mientkiewicz, $13; don't be surprised if he doubles this by the end of the year.
Potential bust: Omar Vizquel, $12; the speed might not return, he still hasn't developed any power, and don't expect much in BA, RBI, or Runs.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Eric Munson and Jared Sandberg($2)
Early good luck: Soriano's($26) getting time at the top of the order and Tucker's($9) starting until Quinn returns.
Early bad luck: Clemens($18) has had two very unlucky starts(due to injury and covering for Ducky), Dee Brown($7) was sent down, and JuanGone's($30) already on the DL.
Category to trade: Aces, with Clemens, Mulder($19), and Pettitte($15).

He assembled a great base of talent, but leaving $12 on the table really hurt him, especially with catching and saves. While he spent his reserve picks mostly on players that can contribute now, only Grimsley and perhaps Glover have any substantial upside. He probably should look to deal one of his top offensive players for better depth of both position players and starting pitchers.

Summary: I think he can make the first division with a bit of luck, but he could have finished much higher if he'd spent all his money.

Owner: Tony Blengino
Site: Future Stars
$ Left: $0.
Split: $161H/$99P = 62/38.
Reserve roster: Mark Teixeira, Paxton Crawford, Adam Johnson, Rolando Arrojo, Miguel Ascencio, and Rafael Soriano.
First player purchased: Pedro Martinez, $35.

Nice pick: Jacque Jones, $15; I know he's leading in roto value through 11 days right now, but he would easily reach $20 under almost any circumstances.
Top sleeper: Jorge Julio, $4; he'll reach $15 or more this year.
Potential bust: Pedro Martinez, $35; considering that Mussina only went for $27, this is a serious gamble that probably won't pay off.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Josh Phelps($2), Omar Infante($2), Mike Lamb($9), Mark Teixeira, Paxton Crawford, and Adam Johnson.
Early good luck: Hank Blalock($12) won the Texas 3B job, and Jacque Jones($15) will get an extra 100 AB hitting leadoff.
Early bad luck: Several players are already hurting, including Everett($16), Pedro, and Teixeira. $9 on Mike Lamb is largely wasted due to Blalock's promotion.
Category to trade: Pitching.

While he drafted several nice sleepers on offense, overpaying for Pedro by at least $10 leaves his pitching vulnerable despite decent depth. Picking up Teixeira, Ascencio, and a couple other youngsters like Infante makes no sense considering they're unlikely to earn positive value for another year or more. He's also unlikely to earn much value from catcher, MIF, or COR given his current lineup, so he'll need to consider selling high on someone like Jones to reinforce his weak positions.

Summary: I'll be surprised if he finishes in the money unless Pedro begins to rebound very strongly.

Owner: Trace Wood
Site: The Long Gandhi
$ Left: $3.
Split: $145H/$112P = 56/44.
Reserve roster: Joe Borchard, Jayson Werth, Wilson Alvarez, Scott Eyre, Karim Garcia, and Hideki Irabu.
First player purchased: Mariano Rivera, $30.

Nice pick: Ichiro, $37; I'm not sure if he'll break $50 again, but I certainly expect him to come close.
Top sleeper: Hideki Irabu, R; if he can keep the homers down, he could earn close to $10 based on wins and ERA alone.
Potential bust: Roy Halladay, $20; while I expect him to very good this year, I have a difficult time imagining him earning quite this much.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Juan Pena($1) and Jayson Werth.
Early good luck: Mike Rivera($3) winning a share of the Tigers' catching job, Jeremy Giambi($15) increasing his AB by leading off, and Irabu finding early starts in Texas.
Early bad luck: Brian Roberts($1) and Eric Byrnes($6) were both sent down, and Brian Buchanan($6) will miss two weeks with his injury. Jeff Zimmerman($20) will also miss at least a month of the season.
Category to trade: Saves, saves, and more saves.

In the most unconventional and therefore most interesting strategy of the four experts' drafts, Wood spent $70 on closers in a 5x5 league, drafting Rivera($30), Escobar($20), and Zimmerman. He also drafted an offense filled with good bargains where probably 10 position players have a decent shot at earning $5 or more of profit. Halladay, Ramon Ortiz($6), and Paul Wilson($8) give him a decent rotation core, and his closers will keep his ERA/WHIP down until he starts dealing them. I wouldn't be surprised to see him move all three closer by the All-Star break, since he'll have already accumulated enough saves to finish in the middle of the pack, and he'll be able to significantly improve his offense and starters.

Summary: Wood could finish anywhere in the standings based upon the effectiveness of his trading.

The best way to combat this strategy would be for nobody in the league to trade with him at all. He'd be stuck with a significant excess of saves while remaining weak everywhere on offense as well as wins and strikeouts. However, the best way to trump combating this strategy would be to trade with him as soon as possible. A few teams have solid depth and could afford to deal a lower starter and a couple of decent offensive players to add a closer, but the loss of Zimmerman also hurt his effectiveness. With Escobar also potentially battling healthy problems due to his mysterious circulation problems, Wood could lose ground rapidly if his closers don't stay healthy.

2002 AL Tout Wars will likely be determined by the timing and players involved in Wood's closer deals. If he's able to maximize his assets, he could ride his $70 on saves into a close race, but he could also sink to last if no one trades, thereby increasing the relative value of the remaining saves in the league.

Overall, I expect Jason Grey and Ron Shandler to battle it out for first over most of the season, with Lawr Michaels, Rich Pike, and Trace Wood also remaining competitive for most of the year.

Tomorrow I'll take a look at a few different situations around the league, Sunday will be the weekly Challenge update, and I'll review our last three drafts next week.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Is your dignity worth 50 cents? If you happen by Burger King in the near future and decide to try their new Chicken Whopper, please do not bow to their shameless promotion by clucking to save two quarters. The sandwich isn't even that good, so there's no reason to amuse the counter drones.