Today's Fantasy Rx

The 2002 AL Tout Wars draft was held on Saturday, March 16th. Due to finishing projections and the other articles from the past two weeks, we haven't had a chance to review it until now.

Last year, Lawr Michaels of CREATiVESPORTS won with 87 points, 6 ahead of Future Stars' Tony Blengino, 8 ahead of Jason Grey and Todd Zola of Masters of Baseball, and 11 ahead of All-Star Stats/Rotoworld's Rich Pike. While NL winner Wise Guy Baseball didn't have less than 8 of 12 points in any category, Michaels won despite finishing dead last in BA and only managing 7 and 6 points respectively in Runs and Steals. Fortunately, his pitching dominated, as he finished first in ERA, second in Wins and WHIP, tied for second in saves, and tied for third in strikeouts.

I still expect the most well-rounded team to win, although while it's rather difficult to punt a category in an experts' league and still win, I'm certainly open to considering the potential of alternative strategies.

Unfortunately, due to the incompleteness of the draft list on toutwars.com, I am unable to list the last player bought by each team.

Please refer to the National League Tout Wars rosters here.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along on the site, I'll review the teams in the order that the website lists them.

Owner: Lawr Michaels, Defending Champion
Site: CREATiVESPORTS
$ Left: $0.
Split: $165H/$95P = 63/37.
Reserve roster: Josh Hamilton, John Lackey, Doug Mirabelli, Rob Bell, Francisco Cordero, and Brian Simmons.
First player purchased: Jorge Posada, $19.

Nice pick: Derek Jeter, $29; considering the lineup depth at the top of the order for the Yankees with Soriano and Johnson ahead of him and Bernie, Giambi, and Posada after, Jeter's 5x5 totals should be very impressive.
Top sleeper: Dave Burba, $2; his hit rate has skyrocketed the last two years, so if the Rangers can provide him decent defense, he could return to his previous $10+ levels.
Potential bust: Freddy Garcia, $22; while I'm impressed by his development last year, his skills are still relatively shallow and he remains an injury risk.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Josh Hamilton and Brian Simmons.
Early good luck: Scott Erickson($3) had a decent debut and could produce acceptable numbers for this price, although I still think he has tremendous downside.
Early bad luck: Joe Crede($7) again failed to win a starting job, Dean Palmer($5) is still hurting, and Gabe Kapler($16) is a PT risk.
Category to trade: Saves, with two established closers in Anderson($23) and Koch($24).

Michaels drafted a lot of inexpensive young veterans in Jeter, Konerko and Erstad($24 each), Posada, and Kapler, all of whom could see career years if they remain healthy. Unfortunately, instead of spending the excess money on another bat or two, he picked up two closers and two expensive starters (Garcia and Park($18)), employing a stars & scrubs approach. I don't like most of his $1-2 picks except for Burba, Herb Perry($1), and Raul Ibanez($2), and none of these three players has an especially high upside. Michaels will definitely need to make some canny FAAB moves to maintain the talent level of his roster.

Summary: His offense could lead the league in every category, but an injury to one of his four pitching studs could keep him out of the money.

Owner: Jason Grey
Site: Masters of Baseball
$ Left: $0.
Split: $222H/$38P = 85/15.
Reserve roster: Jon Rauch, Kris Wilson, Calvin Maduro, Dan Reichert, Kenny Rogers, and Tim Wakefield.
First player purchased: John Olerud, $18.

Nice pick: Jason Giambi, $34; I'm not sure if he'll win the Triple Crown, but I expect him to remain in the hunt, along with ARod, for much of the year.
Top sleeper: While I could easily say Ryan Rupe, $1, based on his early season performance, I'm going to go with Nick Bierbrodt, $2; his risk is much higher considering his apparent contraction of Steve Blass disease, but his upside is equal to anyone on the Rays' staff.
Potential bust: Carlos Beltran, $29; he'll contribute in at least four categories, but he'll need another year of BA luck to earn this price.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None; his reserve draft consisted of six pitchers who are either pitching in the majors or soon will be.
Early good luck: Ryan Rupe's great start, Rickey Henderson($5) apparently finding decent playing time, and guys like Rauch and Maduro winning rotation spots.
Early bad luck: Willis Roberts($6) lost his closing job.
Category to trade: Offense across the board; probably wins and strikeouts.

While Michaels' offense certainly had upside, spending 85% of your budget on offense almost guarantees a Top 3 finish in every category. He has plenty of power from relatively inexpensive sources like Edgar Martinez($16), and he has excellent speed depth, perhaps allowing him to move Jason Tyner($15) later in the year. Although he effectively has no bullpen, he can rotate his starters all year to earn top finishes in wins and strikeouts, along with hopefully solid ERA and WHIP.

Summary: As long as he can find some saves, he should remain in the money for the entire season

Owner: Mat Olkin
Site: Baseball Weekly
$ Left: $4.
Split: $162H/$94P = 63/37.
Reserve roster: Esteban German, Jerrod Riggan, Ryan Franklin, Tom Wilson, Luis Alicea, and Matt Ginter.
First player purchased: Troy Percival, $25.

Nice pick: Trot Nixon, $21; all his numbers indicate that a power surge may be forthcoming despite his bouncing around the lineup.
Top sleeper: Esteban German, R; if he can win the 2B job by mid-season, his two-dozen steals should be very helpful.
Potential bust: Derek Lowe, $13; I'm concerned about his ability to last deep into games, and with Boston already hurting from pitching injuries, his wins could suffer due to the strain on the bullpen.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Angel Berroa($3).
Early good luck: Carlos Pena($15)'s great start certainly allays any doubts from Spring Training, and Joel Pineiro will likely see more work in the bullpen over the first two months than he would have in the rotation.
Early bad luck: Shawn Wooten($5)'s injury, Angel Berroa's demotion, Bobby Howry($3)'s struggles, and Percival's injury.
Category to trade: Starting pitching.

Despite drafting a relatively balanced team filled with no one over Percival's $25, he left $4 on the table while spending $8 combined on Wooten and Berroa, two players unlikely to help much this season. While he has some pitching depth, he also has a few guys at the end of their respective teams' bullpens (Franklin, Riggan, Howry, Tam($2), and Ginter whenever he gets called up), reducing his opportunity for wins and saves. I also think he paid close to full price for most of his players, especially on offense, and he'll need great years from his veteran outfielders to remain in the money.

Summary: One more injury, in addition to Percival, might leave him in the second division.

Owner: Ron Shandler
Site: BBHQ
$ Left: $0.
Split: $192H/$68P = 74/26.
Reserve roster: Adam Piatt, John Bale, Matt Kinney, Aaron Myette, Jeff Shaw, and Ted Lilly.
First player purchased: Bobby Higginson, $23.

Nice pick: Victor Zambrano, $1; he's likely to earn $10 as a setup guy, and with Esteban Yan($20) widely considered trade bait, Shandler nicely protected his investment.
Top sleeper: Ted Lilly, R; the Yankees will need him to start soon, and he'll rack up solid 5x5 numbers even if left in the bullpen.
Potential bust: Carlos Lee, $22; even if he has a breakout power year, the Sox have said he's not supposed to run nearly as much this year, likely slicing several dollars off his value.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jeff Shaw.
Early good luck: Hatteberg's($5) scorching spring allowed him to start in Oakland's #3 spot, Mark L. Johnson($2) seems likely to grab over 300 AB, and Koskie($25) recovered relatively quickly after his injury.
Early bad luck: While all six reserve picks have good upside, only Lilly made an Opening Day roster, Sean Douglass($1) was sent down despite $10 potential, Koskie was moved down to #6 and Higginson was moved up to #1.
Category to trade: Perhaps a starting pitcher or two once Lilly and Fossum($2) ascend to rotation spots.

While he overspent a little on closers and I don't expect either of them (Yan or Guardado($16)) to keep their jobs all year, he drafted a fairly balanced team, along with a half-dozen pitchers with double-digit profit potential. His bullpen will help everywhere except wins, and gives him a solid ERA/WHIP base that Jason Grey's starting pitchers lack. I'm concerned that he didn't find too much upside outside of the catchers, but his pitching staff might make that disadvantage irrelevant.

Summary: I see little reason why he shouldn't remain in the money throughout the season.

Owner: Jim Callis
Site: Baseball America
$ Left: $3.
Split: $159H/$98P = 62/38.
Reserve roster: Travis Phelps, B.J. Ryan, Dave McCarty, Chad Harville, Mike MacDougal, and Dan Plesac.
First player purchased: Aaron Rowand, $5(first overall).

Nice pick: Adam Kennedy, $10; as 26-year-old with 2+ years of service, he could see a real breakout this year.
Top sleeper: Travis Phelps, R; he could wind up with the Tampa closer job after a Yan trade.
Potential bust: Aubrey Huff, $7; he seems unlikely to see enough playing time to earn anywhere close to this price.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Mike MacDougal.
Early good luck: Milton Bradley($8) secured the CF job and Mitch Meluskey($8) looks healthy.
Early bad luck: Huff and Cuddyer($6) were both demoted, Rondell White($11) and Jermaine Dye($20) are still hurting, and Ben Davis($4) will be lucky to find 250 AB.
Category to trade: Starting pitching.

He spent almost a hundred on pitching and failed to draft any relievers before the reserve round. I think he wasted at least $20 on starting pitchers and perhaps another $20 on youngsters likely to spend most of the year on the minors or the bench(Huff, Cuddyer, Davis, and Rowand). The only upside on this team rests with the playing time of the young guys on offense, as his veterans are either injured or on teams likely to decline (Thome and Cameron at $25 each).

Summary: If he can start dealing starters ASAP for offense and maybe a closer, he has a chance of finishing in the money.

Owner: Dean Peterson
Site: STATS, Inc.
$ Left: $0.
Split: $191H/$69P = 73/27.
Reserve roster: Orlando Hudson, Andres Torres, Benji Gil, Paul Byrd, Luis Vizcaino, and Matt LeCroy.
First player purchased: Keith Foulke, $31.

Nice pick: Dave Ortiz, $13; he could double this if the Twins' top three hitters continue to give him RBI opportunities.
Top sleeper: Andres Torres, R; if Detroit lets him start soon, 30 extra steals should be very helpful.
Potential bust: Troy Glaus, $27; I remain quite concerned about his RBI and Runs' opportunities, and wouldn't be surprised if he barely reached $20.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): LaTroy Hawkins, $1.
Early good luck: Buchanan's injury brought Kielty($2) back to the majors, Torres' recent callup, and Dave Ortiz securing the #4 spot.
Early bad luck: Hitchcock's($2) injury, Kielty's demotion, and Roberto Hernandez's($15) injury could be very troublesome. Sweeney's($29) new contract also reduces his upside as he won't spend two months in a contender's offense.
Category to trade: Saves if Hernandez ever returns.

He drafted high-risk, high-upside starting pitchers; only Todd Ritchie($11) can be counted upon to earn his salary. Players like Offerman($3) are decent gambles but could lose playing time quickly. I like the Homer Bush($9)/Hudson combo, although his outfield lacks the upside of some of infielders. He needs to find an ERA/WHIP stabilizer ASAP or he could be buried by Memorial Day.

Summary: Only a couple of great trades will keep him out of the second division.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Never get behind a concept car at the car wash unless you want to spend an extra 5 minutes in line.