Today's Fantasy Rx.

I'm going to split the remaining twenty-five or so pitchers over the weekend, since I don't want to overload everyone spending the weekend watching football. We'll review American League pitching prospects beginning on Monday.

American League Relief Pitchers with $-5 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

146.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Matt Perisho		2	0	5.72	1.73		19	14	54	25	39.1
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-5		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Perisho is simply one of the most hittable pitchers in Major League Baseball, allowing hitters to bat over .310 against him in the last two seasons with no noticeable platoon split. He doesn't normally give up many home runs, although he also doesn't possess good command. His second half showed promise as he struck out 5.5 K/9 while only allowing 2.2 BB/9, but he'd need to post those numbers over a full season before I'd risk owning him. Moving away from Detroit to a smaller park might help him reduce his OBA, but he had a correspondingly higher home run rate while in a similar situation in Texas.

147.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Bacsik		0	0	9.00	1.78		4	3	13	9	9.0
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-5		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-6		-1		-9		-1

Bacsik continued his emergence as a potentially reliable left-handed starter as he increased his MLEs from 45:21 in 100 IP during 2000 to 86:28 in 148 IP during 2001. With a correspondingly low home run rate remaining at 1.1 and his OOBP holding at a little over .300, he should develop into a consistent starter by the end of this season. He's certainly not a future ace, but he definitely could pitch decently for several years. Unfortunately for Bacsik, the Mets acquired him in the Alomar deal, and now he's blocked by both several veterans and prospects. Without a trade or other organization change, he might be shoe-horned into a lefty specialist role within a year.

148.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Matt Miller		0	0	7.45	2.07		6	4	16	8	9.2
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-6		-1		-9		-1

While Miller could be an acceptable starter if given the opportunity, the Tigers will likely use him in relief instead of giving him the deserved opportunity to start. Breaking him in as a middle reliever isn't a bad idea on its own merits, but with higher-upside prospects likely soon arriving in the majors, I'd be surprised if they ever give him more than one or two starts. Given the current turnover in the Detroit bullpen, you should likely wait until he establishes himself more thoroughly before considering him as an injury replacement.

149.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Foster		0	0	6.62	1.75		16	10	21	13	17.2
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	-5		0		-9		-1

Foster continued his return from arm troubles with a very impressive albeit brief AAA performance, including a 55:22 K:BB ratio in 54 IP with only 41 hits. He also allowed eight homers in that stint, and when combined with another weak performance in the big leagues, I'll be surprised if he reappears in the majors in 2002. He never appeared particularly impressive even back when the Cubs used him as a de facto ace, so you shouldn't be surprised that he's struggling on the downside of his career.

150.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Chuck McElroy		1	0	5.36	1.70		22	28	49	27	45.1
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2		Res
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0		1

McElroy has devolved from a reliable middle reliever and potential closer into an unusable lefty specialist with a dreadful reverse platoon split. He's simply lost all command of his pitches as evidenced by this ridiculously high walk rate. You definitely must avoid him during the season, since even his limited strikeout potential will never be worth the probable damage to your team in the qualitative categories.

151.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Lesli Brea		0	0	18.00	4.50		0	3	6	4	2.0
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2		Res
2001 Age: 22?	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-1

Brea has told reporters at times that he is actually five years older than his listed age. He's also said that his listed birthdate his correct. While he's a decent relief prospect regardless of his actual age, I'd almost be more comfortable if he was quickly approaching thirty since we wouldn't really need to worry about arm problems. A full-time move to the bullpen certainly agreed with him as his MLE K/9 almost doubled while his K:BB increased from 1.1 to 2.7. He certainly should be in the Baltimore closing mix by the end of the season, although I'm not comfortable in using even a low minor league pick on him. Wait until he's promoted after the All-Star break, and then strongly consider FAABing him.

152.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Scott Radinsky		0	0	27.00	3.50		3	3	4	6	2.0
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-1

Radinsky continued his impressive comeback from cancer with an unimpressive season, although he somehow convinced Cleveland to keep him on their 40-man roster despite no indication that he'll ever again reach an acceptable level of dominance in the majors. His command was fairly decent in the minors in only about 40 IP. As he also hasn't shown anything in the big leagues since 1998, you can't expect him to see Positive Draft Value in the future.

153.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tony Cogan		0	0	5.84	1.82		17	13	32	16	24.2
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-6		-1		-9		-1

Kansas City rushed Cogan through the minors because of their inability to find usable left-hander relievers as minor league free agents. He showed a lot of promise back as an A-ball starter, where he compiled a 51:14 K:BB ratio in 78.2 IP with 65 hits and 3 HR. Of course, he accomplished that during the first half of 2000, before the Royals promoted him as a reliever to A+ and then AA by the end of the year. Allard Baird let him start 2001 in the majors as a one-batter situational reliever. A smart GM would send him back to AA to start, or perhaps even to A+ since he never received a fair shot for starting at that level. Since this is still Kansas City, expect Cogan to split the year in the bullpen between Omaha and KC. Do I even need to tell you to avoid him in 2002?

154.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jonathan Johnson		0	0	9.58	1.94		11	7	13	11	10.1
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-6		-1		-9		-1

After a great year at AAA Oklahoma in relief in 2000, they kept him in the majors as a long reliever since he was out of options, and then promptly DFA'd him when he walked a few too many batters. His 2000 MLEs clearly indicate a future for him in the bullpen, so Arizona picked him up off waivers and let him start at AAA Tucson, even when they were searching for bullpen help down the stretch. I realize that some teams will likely never learn how to maximize their resources, and Johnson is definitely a player who will not prosper until he finds an organization that acknowledges and respects his specific talents. Stay away from this bundle of uncertainty in 2002.

155.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ken Hill		0	0	12.27	2.05		2	5	10	10	7.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-2		3

Hill hasn't racked up twice as many strikeouts as walks since 1992 in Montreal, the only time in career that he managed that level of command. He hasn't even managed more strikeouts than walks in the last three seasons. Perhaps no player currently in the game deserves an "Over the" nickname more than Hill, and he definitely no longer has any place in fantasy baseball.

156.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brandon Knight		0	0	10.13	1.97		7	3	18	12	10.2
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-5		-2		-9		-2
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-2

Knight has refined his skills while spending the majority of the last four years in AAA. His MLEs from Columbus in 2001 include a 146:47 K:BB ratio in 162 IP with 202 hits and 26 HR. He would likely thrive in a pitchers' park, so certainly consider picking him up whenever he finds that opportunity away from the realms of Yankee minor league depth. If given the chance, he would have solved the Yankees' fifth starter problems, but some team will need to free him if he's to avoid AAAA status.

157.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Antonio Osuna		0	0	20.77	2.31		6	2	8	10	4.1
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-2		-9		-2
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-2		Res

The Sox gave up a few decent prospects to acquire Osuna before watching him break down for the second time in three seasons. Perhaps the stress of finding himself moved from "closer in waiting" to setup work to middle relief in the space of two seasons simply left him too disconcerted to maintain healthy mechanics. Regardless of the cause of his most recent injury troubles, expect him to re-emerge as a competent middle reliever by the second half of 2002. His long-term contract makes him far more likely to remain in Comiskey through 2003 than someone like Howry, but I'd still wait to insure that he's recovered before picking him up this season.

American League Relievers will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Finalize your Super Bowl plans. With only a day remaining until the game, you should probably make sure that you have a nice comfortable place to watch the commercials. We don't really care about the game with the Bears out of the running, but anyone could chart American culture by monitoring the commercials at each year's game, so even if you plan on spending tomorrow in the crowd-free malls, tape the game on a non-commercial skipping device to see what the folks at Bud, Pepsi, and Monster.com present to us this year.