Today's Fantasy Rx.

American League Relief Pitchers with $-4 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

123.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Danny Kolb		0	0	4.70	1.63		15	10	15	8	15.1
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		0
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		0		-7		0

While Kolb certainly can dominate hitters at times, he's lost much of the last two years to injury. Even when healthy, he hasn't compiled an acceptable K:BB ratio in any significant number of innings since leaving A-ball. He really needs a full year at AAA to determine if he has the ability to sustain success at the upper levels or if his 2001 AAA numbers of 21:4 K:BB in 19 IP with 13 hits are really as much of a fluke as the limited sample size suggests.

124.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Justin Speier		2	0	6.97	1.55		15	8	24	16	20.2
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		0		Res
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		0		-7		0

Speier went a little homer-crazy in the AL, allowing five in these brief 20.2 IP. He fortunately managed to reign in those tendencies when moving to Colorado, reducing his HR/IP output to a more acceptable 8/56 IP. I'd heartily recommend him under most circumstances, but as he appears set in Colorado if he can even beat out a growing competition to make the team, you should probably avoid him in 2002.

125.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jake Westbrook		4	0	5.85	1.56		48	22	79	42	64.2
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		0
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		1		-6		1

Although Westbrook appeared more comfortable in his 36 IP in relief, six starts is not enough time to determine if a competent minor league starter can be effective in the majors. He's increased his MLE strikeout rate up to 2001's 6.1 K/9, and his K:BB has similarly improved to a 1.9. He might have more success in the bullpen, but Cleveland really needs to give him 15-20 starts at the end of their rotation to get a better idea of his potential.

126.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Luis Pineda		0	0	4.91	1.64		13	14	16	10	18.1
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		0
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-5		0		-7		0

Pineda pitched quite well in AA, compiling a 92:28 K:BB ratio in 85.2 IP with 66 hits over 16 games and 12 starts. So the Tigers allowed him two long relief appearances at AAA before promoting him to the majors. These rather awful stats are the result of their hasty decision, so while his 2001 MLEs still appear impressive, he needs to prove himself at AAA before facing more major league competition. Now traded to the Reds in the Young-Encarnacion deal, Cincinnati needs to leave him at Louisvlle for at least the first half of 2002.

127.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Pat Mahomes		7	0	5.70	1.58		61	55	115	68	107.1
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		0
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		1		-5		2

Mahomes lucked into a double-digit value in 1999 on the strength of several lucky vultured wins. His strikeout rate ranges from acceptable to good, although his K:BB hasn't even reached 1.5 in any of the last five seasons. With a HR/9 rate also rising on a yearly basis, he's completely undraftable and should be unsignable by any intelligent teams. Fortunately for Mahomes, the Cubs don't recognize the effectiveness of K:BB in projecting ERA, so they'll likely find several dozen IP for him in 2002, none of which should occur while he's on your roster.

128.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jason Standridge		0	0	4.66	1.71		9	14	19	10	19.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		-1
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Standridge has shown no pitching capability above A-ball, and he desperately needs to return to AA until he gains the skills necessary to support a sub 4.00 ERA at higher levels. As he also hasn't even struck out a batter for every two innings above AA, he appears completely undraftable at this time. If Tampa does not act intelligently, he'll likely be relegated to AAAA status before he turns 25.

129.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Adam Bernero		0	0	7.30	1.38		8	4	13	10	12.1
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		-4		1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0		Res

Bernero looked very impressive in advancing three levels in 2000. We now see that those apparent skills gains were a mirage developed from not seeing teams more than once or twice in each league. Far from being a great sleeper starter for 2001, Bernero didn't even pitch effectively at AAA. He needs to go back down to AA, dominate for half a season, and then return to AAA with restored confidence. Until you see some consistency at AAA, he's far too risky to own.

130.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Duvall		0	0	7.71	1.93		4	2	7	4	4.2
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		-1
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Duvall performed admirably at AAA Edmonton in 2001, compiling MLEs of 51:22 K:BB ratio in 62 IP. His problem continues to be an elevated hit and sometimes HR rate, as 87 hits in 62 IP are quite unacceptable. He certainly has the talent to develop into a credible lefty threat, but he'll need to at least post these command numbers in the majors before he'll receive an extended shot.

131.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Brantley		0	0	5.14	1.67		11	9	26	12	21.0
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		-1		2
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0		Res

Brantley has lost more than three of the last six seasons to injury, leaving him extremely unlikely to pitch more than a dozen innings at age 38 in 2002. His 2000 performance at Philadelphia, in which he posted a 57:29 K:BB ratio in 55.1 IP, indicated that he still has some pitching ability, but he also allowed 12 homers in those 55.1 IP. With 5 homers in only 21 IP last year, he no longer appears to possess the effectiveness necessary to remain in the majors. You need to avoid him if he even finds work in 2002.

132.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Judd		1	0	5.28	1.69		16	15	34	17	29.0
TB / TEX		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		0		-6		-1
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Judd hasn't posted an overly impressive set of numbers since AA in 1997. He's managed solid skill rates across the board at times, but he shows no ability to regularly combine good command with lower homer rates or to demonstrate dominance with low walk rates. He retains decent potential if he could ever harness his talents, but there's no reason to risk owning him this season.

133.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Todd Williams		1	0	4.70	2.02		13	9	22	8	15.1
NYY		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-6		-1
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Williams's command has seemingly vanished over the past two years, as he no longer seems like an effective AAA reliever after two relatively poor seasons. He's shown little competence in even striking hitters out recently, and with his previous AAAA reliever designation, he'll be somewhat lucky to receive more than another brief cup-of-coffee or two. If given an extended chance at any point in the near future, wait for him to prove himself over a couple of dozen innings before acquiring him.

134.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Juan Rincon		0	0	6.35	2.12		4	5	7	4	5.2
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Minnesota appears to be taking their time in promoting Rincon, and based upon his improvement in his first full season of AA, their strategy is working. He improved across the board in 2001 while doubling the number of AA innings' pitched. He'll never be a dominant pitcher, but with a full season of AAA in 2002, he's right on target to emerge as their fifth starter in 2003 as his options run out. You might consider spending a low minor league pick on him this year if the Twins deal Rick Reed and opt to use their young and slightly more advanced pitchers like Kyle Lohse and J.C. Romero instead of a "proven veteran" like Brian Meadows.

136.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Austin		0	0	5.54	1.58		27	14	27	16	26.0
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-4		0		-7		0

Austin was converted to relief this season after Kansas City grew increasingly unhappy with his performance as a starter. He capitalized on this change, posting a 55:27 K:BB in 70.2 IP before his promotion. This inflated ERA seems directly attributable to bad luck as he actually demonstrated good pitching skills. I don't particularly recommend him for this season given the turmoil on the Royals' pitching staff, but he could easily earn a few bucks this year and perhaps even establish himself as the heir to Roberto Hernandez.

136.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tim Crabtree		0	4	6.56	2.19		16	14	37	17	23.1
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1		17
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	-4		0		-8		0		15

Crabtree's only respectable season in the recent past was in 1999 where he actually demonstrated skills that supported a low ERA. Instead of his poor 2000 being only a brief downslide before a return to 3.0+ K:BB and 7.5+ K/9, that season actually appears far more in line with his career numbers than 1999. Even without his arm injury, Crabtree was unlikely to perform even respectably as a closer, so we're quite happy that we only owned him in Challenge leagues where all he cost us was a roster pickup and a little pain in qualitative categories. There's no reason to own him this year even if he appears recovered at some point, so wait until he demonstrates some acceptable level of skill in 2003 before acquiring him.

137.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
R.A. Dickey		0	0	6.75	1.67		4	7	13	9	12.0
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		0		-8		-1

Robert Allen Dickey, born on October 29th, 1974 in Nashville, selected with the 18th overall pick of the 1996 draft by Texas, used for all of 12 innings between April 19th and May 8th of 2001 before Texas DFA'd, outrighted, and re-signed him. After over-promotions for the past four years and this failed major league appearance, he returned to AAA for the second full season and compiled a very acceptable set of statistics, including a 120:45 K:BB ratio in 163 IP with 164 hits and 14 HR. He seems prepared to be a very capable 5th starter or long reliever for a year or two sometime in the next several seasons, but there's no reason to own him until he shows some sign of competence in the majors.

138.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Grant Balfour		0	0	13.50	2.25		2	3	3	4	2.2
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-5		0		-9		-1

Balfour has managed to overcome the horribly depressing handicap, caused by hearing repeated announcement sof his last name, to ironically develop into a very capable pitcher with good command. Despite extremely impressive 2001 MLEs that included a K/9 rate of over 10, he really needs a full year at AAA against better competition before he deserves any hype as a closer of the future. I certainly like his potential, and he's not exactly facing strong competition in the Minnesota pen. If he continues his ascent to the majors by pitching great in AAA, he might have the chance to establish himself as the closer no later than mid-2003 while the Twins still consider Adam Johnson for a rotation spot. FAAB this guy for a couple of bucks when he gets called up if his AAA numbers are comparable to his AA stats in 2001.

139.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Scott Mullen		0	0	4.50	2.20		3	9	13	5	10.0
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		0		-9		-1

Mullen hinted at a strong future in 2000 but then failed to capitalize on his positive transition to the bullpen. He showed little command at either AAA or the majors, so despite definite potential for dominance in relief, Kansas City will need to keep him at AAA for at least another half season. If they again over-promote him to the majors, he's very unlikely to perform at a level suitable for rostering on your team.

140.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Toby Borland		0	0	10.80	2.70		0	1	8	4	3.1
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	-6		-1		-9		-1

Borland continues to pitch effectively at the AAA level without having received an extended look in the majors since the 1996 season. His 2001 performance at AAA Salt Lake, home of one of the best hitters' parks in baseball, positions Borland as one of the most established and competent pitchers who'll need a great spring to even see another shot in the majors. Borland's MLEs place his numbers in a more usable context, and they included a 76:28 K:BB in 74 IP with 61 hits and 2 homers, numbers that would likely earn him a roto value approaching double digits in most leagues. If he finds a major league roster spot in 2002 for any extended period of time, he definitely shouldn't hurt you if need an injury replacement.

141.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Tolar		0	0	6.75	1.88		11	13	7	8	10.2
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	-5		0		-8		-1

After a decade in the minors, Tolar finally received his first major league trials from the Tigers over the last two years. His 2001 AAA Toledo statistics include a 73:21 K:BB ratio in only 56 IP, so if used properly, he should give the Tigers a quite inexpensive lefty option in the bullpen for the next few years. Based on his brief appearances so far, Detroit likely needs to just hand a bullpen job to Tolar regardless of his Spring performance, and give him at least three months to determine if his great AAA numbers can carry to the majors.

142.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
John Parrish		1	0	6.14	1.77		20	17	22	15	22.0
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

The Orioles used Parrish in relief despite significant improvement as a starter in AAA in 2001. He compiled MLEs that included a 113:53 K:BB ratio in 133 IP with 136 hits and 13 HR, numbers that Baltimore could certainly use in their rotation, especially from a left-hander. Make sure he secures a spot on their roster before risking any money, but I wouldn't be even slightly surprised to see him earn $5-$10 in 2002 roto value.

143.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Roy Smith		0	0	6.06	1.78		17	13	16	11	16.1
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Smith will have a very difficult time making Cleveland's bullpen given their ever-growing depth, an unfortunate situation considering his seemingly prodigious skills. Upon his first promotion to AAA in 2001, he struck out over a batter per inning while only walking a third as many hitters as he struck out, so ignore his big league walk rate because of the small sample size. With correspondingly low hit and homer rates, he seems quite prepared to emerge as at least quality specialist if given the opportunity. While I don't expect him to see much 2002 value because of his competition, he won't hurt you if he finds extended major league time.

144.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dave Borkowski		0	0	6.37	1.52		30	15	30	21	29.2
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Borkowski appears to be mostly recovered from his arm problems, posting very acceptable K:BB and K/9 ratios despite this inflated ERA, mostly attributable to him allowing 5 homers in these 29.2 IP. Overcoming his gopheritis appears key to any chance for him to re-emerge as a potentially valuable member of a pitching staff. I'd like to see at least another half-season of effective pitching before acquiring him, as I remain worried that his command could fall back to previously undraftable levels as in 1999 where he only managed a 50:40 K:BB ratio.

145.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jose Santiago		2	0	6.75	1.67		15	9	40	22	29.1
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-1		-7		-1		1
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		0		-8		-1

Santiago continues to show almost no ability to strike out hitters despite good command and relatively good ERAs, excluding his 2001 before the trade to Philadelphia for Paul Byrd. The Royals probably should have kept him in an attempt to maintain some stability in an otherwise extremely transient bullpen. He'll continue to rely on great command to stay in the majors, so you should likely avoid him in favor of relievers with more potential dominance.

American League Relievers will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The arrival of February means you need to get your leagues set for the 2002 season if you've not previously done so. We're already trying to resolve a conflict on one draft date for just two of our few keeper leagues, so we highly recommend that you check with your league commishes for draft dates in your existing leagues. Definitely try to finalize plans for any new leagues that you've recently joined or would like to join. Also keep in mind that March 31st is Easter Sunday, so many owners will likely be unable to draft on that date.