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December
5th
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
   
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Second Basemen Week, Day Three

by Tim Polko

There's going to be a slight change in this week's schedule. I'm in the middle of fighting off a potentially bad cold, so I decided to save the research-intensive NL minor league article until Saturday. The other three articles will each be bumped up a day accordingly.

Here's the revised schedule for the rest of the week:

Today: American Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Thursday: American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Friday: Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the AL.
Saturday: Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the NL.

American League Second Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Roberto Alomar 575193.3362010030113 2B-157
CLE Indians DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 42413231 28
2001 Age: 33 5x5: 39372929 31

Alomar continues to dominate at the very highest levels of the game. He's combined the speed of his youth with the power of maturity to produce several consecutive extremely valuable years. He may be peaking right now but he could easily sustain this for a few more years. His team-dependent numbers will fall if Cleveland doesn't provide him with additional offensive support. Also be wary of trade rumors, since despite Alomar's Hall of Fame career, teams seem to find plenty of excuses to both deal and acquire him.


2. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Bret Boone 623206.331371415118 2B-156
SEA Mariners DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 40383030 7
2001 Age: 32 5x5: 37362827 14

The 32-year old was able to combine his previous career highs in most roto categories while even increasing his top marks in power and average. He attributed his newfound abilities to a better workout regime and refused to call his season a fluke despite its apparent incongruity with the rest of his career. His team even made the playoffs thanks largely to his contributions, before failing to win the pennant.

But enough about Brady Anderson in 1996.


3. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Alfonso Soriano 574154.26818734377 2B-156
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 25251919 1
2001 Age: 23 5x5: 23231818 10

We attended the game in April where Soriano recorded his first walk of year, and 50,572 Yankee fans gave him a standing ovation. He started to show more plate discipline by the end of the year. I'm not sure if he can repeat these numbers immediately since he appears a prime candidate for a sophomore slump, but I also think that he can probably balance any losses with gains in other categories. For example, his steals should go up as he learns to read pitchers better and gets on base more, especially if he winds up hitting at the top of the order. A thought for your NL drafts: D'Angelo Jimenez had better minor league numbers before his injury last year.


4. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ray Durham 611163.267206523104 2B-150
CH White Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 18181413 23
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 19181414 25

Durham turned into a #6 hitter when the Sox expected him to be their catalyst at the top of the order. His plate discipline slipped after three extremely consistent years (BB:K of 75:105, 73:105, and 73:105 before 2001), dropping his OBP to the lowest point since his rookie year. He maintained decent value even with these problems, but the Sox are probably wise in exploring deals for him. His SB% has also fallen significantly and I wouldn't really expect him to hit 30 steals again. Durham's career progression almost suggests that he's now going to have a few seasons like Damian Easley did two years ago, although his production might depend on him finding a comfortable situation, either in Chicago or elsewhere.


5. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Luis Rivas 563150.2667473170 2B-150
MIN Twins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 16161212 8
2001 Age: 21 5x5: 16161212 9

Much of the auction money went to Hairston and Abernathy, and Rivas proceeded to out-earn both of them combined. Always bet on speed and playing time for young middle infielders. Rivas didn't have a particularly great year even if he certainly helped out fantasy players with those 31 steals. There's no reason that he can't improve on that as he gains experience and hopefully a little more plate discipline. Anything up to $20 next year might net you a profit, and he's within a year or two of maturing into Cristian Guzman, with both players still possessing great potential.


6. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Homer Bush 27383.3063271332 2B-78
TOR Bluejays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 12121010 6
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 111199 9

Left for roto death by many fantasy players after his dreadful 2000, Bush put together some helpful statistics in a year right in line with his career numbers. He has no comprehension of the strike zone, but manages to make enough contact to occasionally post a decent average with double-digit steals. I wouldn't bid to $10 next year since his BA is so volatile and Toronto has a lot of young middle infielders that need playing time. You might consider him at a low price, although some of the younger players could produce bigger profits.


7. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Adam Kennedy 478129.2706401248 2B-131
ANA Angels DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 101077 11
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 101077 17

While he may be pushed aside by some of the Angel prospects or even Eckstein in a year or two, I think Kennedy's going to have a nice little run, possibly pushing the $20 that everyone expected this season. He'll be 26 with 2+ years of experience next year in a decent lineup and splitting his time between some great pitching ballparks (Oakland and Seattle) and some rather attractive ones for hitters (Texas and Houston). I expect him to rebound to around his rookie levels, with slightly improved production offset by fewer at-bats since he should hit lower in the order.


8. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Randy Velarde 34295.278932650 2B-52
TEX / NYY DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 8977 10
2001 Age: 38 5x5: 9977 10

Velarde could fall apart at any time due to his advanced age, but he's maintained his production over the past few seasons despite moving around a lot. His 2002 value will depend entirely on where he signs and what role his new team wants him to fill. Due to the risks of age, injury, and ever-present prospects, I probably won't ante more than a couple bucks at most to see if he has any cards left to play.


9. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Chris Stynes 361101.280833452 2B-43, 3B-46
BOS Red Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 8866 9
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 9977 10

Stynes would have earned back his auction price if Boston had stayed with more consistent lineups. His plate discipline is average at best, and his BA should continue to fluctuate. I wouldn't be surprised to see him post double digits in HR and SB one of these years, but it would help if he was left alone at one position and lineup spot for a while.


10. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jose Offerman 524140.267949576 2B-91, 1B-43
BOS Red Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 8866 11
2001 Age: 32 5x5: 91077 15

The Red Sox will be left with an $8 million-a-year bench player if they bring in another 1B or 2B. They already have a few candidates for almost every infield spot and would be much better served by spending their money to replace Nomo in the rotation, add bullpen depth if Lowe's going to start, and pay someone to take Everett off their hands. Offerman can help their lineup if they let him play and run. Pay careful attention to how they use him in spring training. His value could jump to the mid-20's if they let him start running again, and while his speed probably isn't what it was three years ago, I still think he could post an easy 20 steals with more green lights.


11. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Luis Alicea 387106.274432844 2B-67, OF-22
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 8866 1
2001 Age: 35 5x5: 8866 1

Alicea likely made a nice profit for his owners this year. His plate discipline slipped noticeably this season so I'd be careful in picking him up next season; some of his other skills could also start disappearing like his speed and batting eye. While I don't expect he'll repeat this many at-bats next year wherever he lands as a free agent, he could earn a few bucks on a minimum investment. Make sure you know his role before bidding.


12. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Russ Johnson 24873.294433232 2B-33, 3B-36
TB Devil Rays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 7766
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 7756

Johnson's value was due almost entirely to a batting average that appears to be mostly a fluke. He's never really displayed much power or speed, and his plate discipline is average at best. I wouldn't expect him to receive much more playing time now that some of Tampa's rookies are ready to play in the majors, and I almost expect the Rays to non-tender him, since his potentially limited 2002 role doesn't justify his likely arbitration award.


13. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jerry Hairston, Jr. 532124.2338472963 2B-156
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 7755 14
2001 Age: 27 5x5: 8866 15

Everyone keeps forgetting that Camden was playing as a pitchers' park even before they moved home plate back a couple yards. His previously solid plate discipline dropped dramatically this year, and his OPS also fell far short of most expectations. He has the ability to double his value for next season and will likely do so if he can bring his average up through more pitch selectivity. He doesn't have much of a window to establish himself since the Orioles' few prospects seem clustered in the middle infield with Roberts and Rogers.


14. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Brent Abernathy 30482.270533843 2B-79
TB Devil Rays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 7755 7
2001 Age: 23 5x5: 7766 9

He'll have more success if he can bump up his walk rate a little, but Abernathy should still solidify the Rays at 2nd for several years. He can easily rack up double digits in both homers and steals with some experience, and while some of his numbers slipped in the high minors, he still showed enough potential to warrant solid bids for 2002. I'll be shocked if he earns less than $10, a value he could double with some consistency in an offense that really must improve next year.


15. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Damian Easley 585146.25011651077 2B-153
DET Tigers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 6655 15
2001 Age: 31 5x5: 8866 16

When Detroit signed him to a long-term deal, they knew he'd only had two good offensive years, two years that happened to occur in his prime while in a great hitters' ballpark in Detroit. His slippage with age is unsurprising given the factors that led to those career highs. Easley only has average plate discipline and therefore has a hard time breaking out of slumps, and while he could rebound with another good year or two like his Tiger debuts, he can just as easily drop even further back to his Angel days of considerably worse offensive contributions.


16. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jolbert Cabrera 28775.2611381050 2B-28, 3B-27, OF-89
CLE Indians DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 5644
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 6756

Cabrera doesn't have enough skill to play every day but can contribute in enough areas with his defense and speed to be a valuable utility guy for a few years. He's not really worth more than a dollar or two in an auction since he has little upside, although he could surprise with a $10 return one of these years if Cleveland gives him another 100 at-bats. His plate discipline varies from acceptable to very good; he's not consistent enough to risk any significant money for the immediate future.


17. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Tony Graffanino 14544.303215423 2B-20, 3B-38
CH White Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 5644
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 5544

Graffanino has shown decent plate discipline in the past along with solid walk rates. Kenny Williams should consider taking the radical approach of dealing both Durham and Clayton before they leave as free agents after 2002, and maybe just let Graffanino play second for a season until Tim Hummell is ready. He doesn't have enough power to help out, but I'm convinced he could hold a solid OBP at the bottom of the order. He'll almost always earn a small profit on a buck investment, but he's exactly the type of player to target for your taxi squad: decent skills and some position flexibility, along with the possibility of a higher value with more playing time.


18. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Damian Rolls 23762.2622121233 2B-42, OF-25
TB Devil Rays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 5544
2001 Age: 23 5x5: 5644

Rolls only showed decent speed in the minors, shocking almost everyone when he took much of the fantasy world by storm in early May with 7 steals in 17 days. Of course his best production was over by the time most of us FAAB'd him and new Tampa manager Hal MacRae anointed him the starter. His abilities seemed to vanish, leaving us with a reserve with a little speed potential but unlikely to receive much more playing time with Abernathy, Huff, and Sandberg all ready for big league action. Rolls is a decent dollar gamble if you need cheap speed, but he could just as easily hurt your BA and not help you anywhere else. He should stick around for a couple years a utility infielder; any more playing time than that would be a surprise.


19. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Cesar Izturis 13436.26929819 2B-41
TOR Bluejays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 4433
2001 Age: 21 5x5: 4433

Back when the Jays were loaded with middle infield prospects, they jumped Izturis and Felipe Lopez over a necessary level of development, leaving both of them very young for their league and struggling against more experienced competition. J.P. Ricciardi now has enough talent in the system to allow him to send them back to AAA for at least half of 2002, letting them learn as a unit that includes Izturis at short, Lopez at third, and Orlando Hudson at 2B. All three prospects need more plate discipline before they can maintain success in the majors, and while Lopez could probably stay in the majors now, Izturis really needs the extra seasoning. His main asset is his speed, and he needs a higher OBP to use his speed most effectively. I'd try to pick him up as a minor leaguer in the spring, but I wouldn't risk the potential BA damage of rostering him in the auction unless I saw something really impressive in his spring stats. He could also be dealt if Alex Gonzalez can't be moved.


20. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Mike Young 38696.2491149357 2B-104
TEX Rangers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 3433
2001 Age: 24 5x5: 5644

Young doesn't have as much upside as most of the other Ranger position player prospects although he could still have years of success as a potential leadoff hitter with solid speed. Texas can afford his lack of power at 2B considering their Hall-of-Fame production from the normally weak catcher and shortstop positions, but Young desperately needs to improve his plate discipline and OBP if he's going to be anything but a mildly useful 9th hitter for a couple seasons. His roto value could be anywhere between $1 and $20 depending on how quickly the veterans in the lineup teach him how to bat.


21. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Frank Menechino 471114.2421260282 2B-136
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 2222 Res
2001 Age: 30 5x5: 5544 1

I sure hope you dealt him by the All-Star break since Menechino had one of the worst 2nd halves in all of baseball. Billy Beane got a great half season out of a solid minor league veteran, and I suspect he can be a decent utility guy for another couple years. Still, I can't see him starting since at least three players in spring training would be more useful to a team desperate for a leadoff hitter at 2nd: Esteban German, Mark Ellis, and even Chad Meyers. Menechino shouldn't hurt you for a dollar, although I doubt you can get him that cheaply considering the press he received during his rise to glory in the spring.


22. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Carlos Febles 29269.236825545 2B-78
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 1111 12
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 2302 13

Beltran has blown past The Other Carlos in production, and Febles still just can't seem to stay healthy enough to fulfill his potential. His auction bids are right in line with his expected value if he could play a full season, but he shows no ability to reduce his apparent fragility. He's not a great risk since his plate discipline is no better than average, although I know he'll make it through one of these seasons and earn close to $20. I hope you can own him when he finally achieves that breakthrough, even if I might not have that much patience left with him.


Early conclusions: The American League offers several interesting young second basemen that all have the potential to earn significantly above their probable 2002 salaries. Each of these guys also has a significant flaw that might prevent him from reaching his potential for a few more years. Rivas has very weak plate discipline, Abernathy's in a horrible lineup, Hairston plays in a really bad hitters' park on a team with an almost equally bad offense, and Febles is chronically injured. Kennedy also hasn't shown much upside in the majors while accumulating more experience than the rest of these guys. Any of these six guys could bust out, earning well over $20 and challenging Soriano for the title "best young roto second baseman." Of course, you could just draft Alomar since there's every possibility that he'll earn another $40 next year, a value that I expect to be several dollars above his likely draft or keeper salary.

We'll review American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Check your 2nd base slot on your keeper teams. You may be in trouble if you don't own one of the guys that I mentioned in the last paragraph. Either strongly consider acquiring one of them, or pay close attention to the Oakland 2B derby. The winner of that contest should rack up a great number of runs even if he doesn't lead off.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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