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December
4th
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
   
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Second Basemen Week, Day Two

by Tim Polko

Free agent signings appear to be picking up a little, so hopefully we'll have several players to review on Sunday. As before, if you'd like me to discuss a particular teams' 2B position in detail this weekend, I'll be happy to accommodate your request.


National League Second Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

25. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Hiram Bocachica 13331.23329415 2B-19
LA Dodgers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0000
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -1101 1

Bocachica appears to improve with more consistent playing time. Neither his plate discipline, SB%, nor stolen base totals were close to his minor league highs, so I still think there's a good chance that he'll improve over the next few years. I wouldn't risk much more than an Ultra pick on him for now, but he's shown solid upside in his history. Now he has to carry that over to the major league level while probably remaining in a reserve role.


26. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Elvis Pena 409.2250625 2B-11
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -1000 Res
2001 Age: 24 5x5: -10-10

Pena slipped in most areas after his promotion to AAA. His rise in errors and lower plate discipline are probably the most worrisome, but he still has plenty of time to rebound. He's needed two years to really get comfortable at each level, so he'll probably have a decent year back at AAA in 2002 and then could be worth a roto pick in 2003. Watch his position to see what role the Brewers want him to learn.


27. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Henry Mateo 93.3330001 2B-2
MON Expos DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 24 5x5: -20-10

Mateo owns a ton of speed without much plate discipline whatsoever. He doesn't hit well enough to leave 2B and the Expos appear set with Vidro, so Mateo will likely either spend another year at AAA or emerge as a utility infielder and pinch-runner in Montreal. I'd like to see him get a few more minor league seasons even though Mateo could post some relatively impressive SB numbers. If he breaks camp with Montreal, he's probably worth a buck on his speed upside alone, but the BA risk would keep me from bidding higher.


28. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
David Newhan 62.3330102 2B-1
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -20-10

Newhan was out for most of the year with shoulder inflammation and the Phillies released him as a minor league free agent at the end of the year. He has a little power and speed but has never demonstrated enough plate discipline to use either tool with much effectiveness. He's likely a utility infielder at best, and I see no reason to draft him since his BA will hold down any other value he might acquire.


29. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jeff Branson 216.2860003 2B-6
LA Dodgers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 34 5x5: -20-10

Branson's never contributed much to roto teams in his career as a utility infielder/AAA journeyman, and he could start slipping even further in his late 30's. Since he has very little upside at this point, I'd avoid him in the draft even if he makes a team. I just don't see him contributing much in the future.


30. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
P.J. Forbes 72.2860101 2B-1
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 33 5x5: -20-10

These seven at-bats were only Forbes' second cup-of-coffee in 12 minor league seasons. His plate discipline varies between acceptable and excellent, and he has a little bit of speed to go with good doubles' power. He could have definitely started for some teams in the mid-90's, but he's probably stuck as a utilityman at best since he plays very consistent defense at 2B, SS, and the outfield. Don't expect him to see many more chances since he's bounced around so much, however he won't hurt you if you need some low risk at-bats if he does show up someplace.


31. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Mendy Lopez 5814.2411708 2B-12
HOU / PIT DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -10-10
2001 Age: 26 5x5: -20-10

Lopez was a mildly interesting gamble while in Enron but really doesn't possess many skills. He hasn't shown much speed or power since AA in 1997, and bouncing around as a minor league free agent won't likely endear himself to any single organization. Even if he makes a team, plenty of safer bets are available, so I'd avoid him unless he winds up back in a great hitters' ballpark.


32. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Luis Figueroa 2.0000000 2B-3
PIT Pirates DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -10-10
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -20-10

Figueroa's shown excellent plate discipline for the past several years, almost always walking more than he strikes out. He doesn't have significant upside as he has little if any power or speed, and his defense appears to be adequate at best. I doubt he'd hurt you as a utility infielder, but the track record of acceptable minor league middle infielders with few tools and plate discipline isn't particularly wonderful in the majors. I'd only trust him in a full-time role, one that he's unlikely to have for at least a few more years.


33. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Cesar Crespo 15332.209412627 2B-34
SD Padres DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -10-10
2001 Age: 22 5x5: -1101

After being dealt with Kotsay for Clement and Owens, Crespo gave the Padres another utility option at the upper levels of the system. He has excellent speed and shows good defense all around the diamond. His only drawback is a relative lack of power but that could develop as he matures. I think the Padres will have him split another year between AAA and the majors, phasing him into a utility role for a couple years with a chance to start down the road if his power improves.


34. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Kevin Jordan 11327.23911309 2B-10, 3B-10, 1B-10
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1-1-10 Res
2001 Age: 31 5x5: -20-10 Res

Jordan's increased position eligibility make him an attractive reserve pick, since he shouldn't really hurt you if you just need a few at-bats here or there with perhaps a home run or two. His BA could be a problem with more playing time, so I'd only draft him in leagues with very flexible reserve rosters.


35. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Bill Selby 9221.22821207 2B-21
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 30 5x5: -20-10

Selby has consistently shown good power and solid plate discipline at the upper levels of the minors and probably could provide an offensive boost for several clubs at 2B. He definitely shouldn't hurt you if he can make it as a utility guy, and he certainly has the skills to earn a noticeable profit with increased playing time. Don't be afraid to bid a buck in the endgame, but also consider saving your money for younger guys with a little more upside.


36. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Stubby Clapp 255.2000100 2B-4, OF-4
STL Cardinals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 28 5x5: -3-1-20

Stubby Clapp is not one of those younger utility guys with upside. He's another very capable and experienced minor league second basemen who's never impressed anyone enough to earn a shot in the bigs. His plate discipline is excellent and he has some doubles' power and speed. FAAB him when he comes up over the next few years, and I don't think he'll really hurt you. He might even give you a nice boost in some of the quantitative categories.


37. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Dave Berg 21552.242416026 2B-34
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 30 5x5: -10-10

Berg combines no tools with barely adequate plate discipline, leaving us with a 2B who only gains value when he qualifies on the left side of the infield. I don't envision Berg helping roto teams, since he just doesn't have any upside and could also hurt you BA. Stay away unless you think Florida might somehow start him over Gonzalez; I can't think of another scenario where he might be a decent pick.


38. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Adam Riggs 367.1940112 2B-11
SD Padres DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 28 5x5: -3-1-20

Riggs isn't quite a lethal weapon as he has some problems with plate discipline, but he also owns a nice combination of power and speed. He could help several teams in a full-time role, and the Dodgers probably should have kept him around in the majors instead of letting him go at the end of 2000. His BA could be a problem in a limited role, so only draft him if he lucks into a starting job, enabling his counting numbers to out-earn his more troublesome stats.


39. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Donnie Sadler 8417.2021339 2B-15
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1 1
2001 Age: 26 5x5: -20-20

Trading for Donnie Sadler is high on the list of "You know your team's in trouble when..." answers. Sadler has no power and his abysmal plate discipline guarantees that even if he finds the speed that he displayed in the minors, he won't be on base enough to use it. Avoid him unless you like heartache, and simply don't think of...drafting...Sadler...again.


40. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Chad Meyers 172.1180001 2B-4, OF-4
CH Cubs DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -3-1-2-1

He must have ticked off someone in the Cub organization royally. They DFA'd Meyers at the end of the season and then dealt a 20-year old decently solid 2B prospect in A-ball named Adam Morissey for Mark Bellhorn, who's very similar to Meyers except he has less speed and plays a better shortstop. I'd rather have Augie Ojeda than Bellhorn, so I just don't understand why they made that switch. The Cubs could have just kept Meyers and Morissey and then probably even picked up Bellhorn when the Athletics would have likely released him anyway. Andy MacPhail's handling of the 40-man roster this year has cost us several decent players, and Meyers is a guy who could be very useful on a team that uses his strengths. He could be very valuable on Oakland as a utility guy with good OBP and a lot of speed. Don't go more than a buck or two unless he wins the 2B job outright, but he could grab a half dozen steals in limited plate appearances, and he should be able to maintain a respectable BA. He's has some trouble with that in the past although I expect the A's will give him enough at-bats to keep him fresh.


41. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Warren Morris 10321.20421126 2B-29
PIT Pirates DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1 7
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -3-1-2-1 10

The Pirates simply gave up on Morris too quickly. I realize that he's shown very little since his rookie year, but he still has decent skills; he just hasn't been showing them off too much. Pittsburgh needs to give him another chance this season after they eat Pat Meares' contract. They can dump him if he fails, but a good two hundred at-bats should at least drum up some decent trade interest, and then they could focus on a younger prospect with more upside.


42. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Keith Lockhart 17839.219312117 2B-47
ATL Braves DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -3-2-2-2 1
2001 Age: 36 5x5: -3-1-2-1

One of the more consistent pinch hitters and utility players in roto appears to have slowed down rather rapidly. Lockhart was never that special even in his prime, but he also never really hurt his owners. He could have some value next year depending on how his new team uses him, so know his role before you even consider bidding on him.


43. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Pat Meares 20757.211425027 2B-85
PIT Pirates DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -6-5-4-4 Res
2001 Age: 32 5x5: -5-3-4-2 1

He's even worse for his real team and sim players than he was in roto this year, and nothing about his career points to any improvement. Even his slightly increasing walk rate is obscured by simply awful plate discipline and very little power or speed. His BA is simply too big of a risk in any stadium, and Meares should only be drafted in very extreme circumstances, such as when a slurred request for beer might inadvertently buy him for you.


Most of these 42 second basemen didn't earn their value because their spring values had a simple flaw, such as projecting too many at-bats. You might need to pay for value since several of these guys should be discounted next year based on more mediocre 2001 performances, but I'd still prefer to go with one of the few young guys like Ortiz or Giles, or a veteran of whom people may have forgotten, like Quilvio Veras. Pay attention to how free agency shakes out as several positions could change before spring.

We'll review National League minor league free agents, prospects, and suspects tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: We're running a short poll today. I would greatly appreciate it if everyone reading this would e-mail me with their answers to two questions based on the following table:

IP BB K K/BB K/9 BB/9
Pitcher A 309.2671822.725.291.95
Pitcher B 337631792.844.781.68
Pitcher A 309.2671822.725.291.95
Pitcher C 482.1693635.266.771.29


Please take a moment to e-mail me with your answers to these two questions:

1. Based on these pitchers' combined statistics during their age 34 and 35 seasons, do you find either of these two comparisons valid?

2. If so, which one(s) do you find to be an appropriate comparison. If you find both to be good comps, which one do you find to be the better comparison?

I'll look forward to your responses, and will post the results in a day or so. Thank you for taking the time to help me out with this small research project.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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