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December 3rd 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Welcome to our third week of position reviews. We're discussing second basemen this week, beginning with the draftable NL players today.
We currently plan to post this week's articles in the following order: National League Second Basemen with Positive Draft Value
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Vina had the best year of any NL second basemen because he stayed healthy and amassed 631 at-bats. He's a complete hacker at the plate even though he maintains solid plate discipline, evidenced by a 32:35 BB:K ratio combined with a walk rate of only 5%. I doubt he'll break the high teens next year, since he's never been completely healthy for two seasons in a row in the majors so be happy if you owned him this year but don't expect a repeat quite this high.
"Clark" must have received a nasty batch of kryptonite in spring training as his numbers fell across the board from those of his undeserved MVP in 2000. He also didn't endear himself to us with the repeated Bonds' bashing in Rick Reilly's SI column, the Bay Area papers, and anywhere else that someone shoved a mic into his face. For all those who argue about lineup protection, Aurilia and Bonds were on-base for most of Kent's plate appearances, so how did he get worse this year when they had historical seasons. The Giants' lineup will collapse if Bonds leaves though that shouldn't be a problem since I still think he stays. Kent's getting a little older but still plays good ball, and I think a repeat of this season is fairly probable.
Vidro didn't have a particularly great year even though he performed well enough for the Expos to have the 2nd best offensive middle infield in the NL after San Francisco. He needs to walk more to be a great #2 hitter in front of the best player in the National League, but he should continue to post several more years of stats at this level or above. He's only entering his prime now, so stay around $20 and you could have a bargain of a few bucks or more; bid any higher and his injury risk grows too unappealing.
EY was more responsible for keeping the Cubs out of the playoffs than any other player. His .333 OBP was far from acceptable and he only stole 31 bass in 45 attempts. The SB% is fairly close to his career numbers but the OBP is the lowest he's ever posted in a full season. Another middle infielder that may be losing some speed with age, I have a feeling he could fall as fast as Vizquel has over the last two years. I'll be shocked if he ever hits $30 again and keeping his value above $20 might be a reach. Max your bids at $20 only if you're desperate for a dozen guaranteed steals; any more than that might be a bonus at this point.
He's still a reliable lead-off hitter with a .382 OBP, but the speed is gone and it's never coming back now. Biggio still has catcher's knees that took over 10 years of abuse behind the plate, and he'll maintain his value to the Astros only as long as he can keep his average up since both his BB:K and walk ratios are falling. Perhaps Biggio is the 35th best player in baseball history as Bill James claims in his Revised Historical Baseball Abstract, but that doesn't change the reality that his best years are behind him and any bid higher than the mid-teens is extremely risky considering his declining production and increasing injury risk.
His OBP improved when he left Colorado while his slugging dropped as expected. Walker's speed has disappeared over the last two seasons, and I doubt its coming back since he didn't run even when Cincy led off with him. He can be very useful in roto for at least a few more seasons but don't overbid. His value will drop with his lineup spot, and I don't see why the Reds should hit him near the top of a lineup that already has too many players (Griffey, Dunn, Casey, and Larkin) who could easily hit in the first three slots.
Anderson's steals were below projections although he made up for that with decent power and a solid BA. He doesn't really help sim players as his OBP is relatively low but he could post a few seasons at these levels if the Phillies leave him alone in the lower part of the order. I doubt many people will realize that Anderson earned in the mid-teens this season since he likely went for even less than the LABR $5 in many leagues, so he would be a good target for a small profit next season if you can secure him for under double digits.
Castillo was the top NL 2B on almost every draft board and likely burned many of us this season. I doubt he ever recovered from several back ailments and hamstring troubles, since even though he played great in June and July he had no endurance to finish the season, closing out with two abysmal months. His two torn ligaments in his left ankle mean he won't be able to play much winter ball at all, so he could start very slowly again next year. He's still relatively young with significant SB potential, but I wouldn't bid above the mid 20's for him this year, and I'd prefer to let someone else overbid and then grab him in trade at the end of April when I suspect he might have a .220 BA. Watch his April BB:K to see if his plate discipline has returned to his 1999-2000 levels of .85 or higher.
It's hard to go wrong with a Colorado player and Shumpert likely earned his owners a couple dollar profit this year. Still his playing time is uncertain with three young and talented middle infielders, and while he can earn close to this much for another year, you may want to cut bait in the second half. His falling BB:K points to a further drop in BA and he doesn't have much power, so bid for a likely dozen steals and deal after the first 8.
Grudzielanek amassed most of his value in the first seven games of the year, going 10 for 32 (.313) with 5HR, 8RBI, 7R, and one steal. His overall numbers were almost identical to injury-riddled Adrian Beltre, though a healthy Grudz didn't even have a third as many steals. The Dodgers would be better off shifting him back to SS, since there's much more offense available at 2B. I'd almost like to see him dealt to Minnesota since he's currently very similar to Luis Rivas albeit with much less upside, and then you could own Grudzielanek, Mientkiewicz, and Pierzynski on a very average though consonant-full offense.
Jackson's already reached his peak years with little change in his production levels. He'd be a solid lead-off guy if he could improve his plate discipline, but he's been mostly starting for the last three years without an OBP above .345. San Diego needs to replace him with someone to improve their offense and use his speed and defense off the bench where Bruce Bochy could maximize his strengths and avoid his weak bat. He'll still grab another 20 or so steals next year although I wouldn't bid double digits for those. He's starting to remind me of Brian L.Hunter, if Hunter could play 2B.
Loretta really doesn't have the tools to start and likely won't ever hit double digits in either homers or steals. He provides solid defense and OBP due to good plate discipline, but he's really a much better utility player than a starter. I'd expect him to start at third for the Brewers if they don't make any significant trades, a move that hurts an already weak offense. Stay in the several dollar range if you even want to consider a profit, especially since Loretta's also showing himself to be a bit injury prone.
Belliard should still have a breakout year if he comes to camp in-shape and stays healthy for the entire season. He has the talent to post both homers and steals well into the teens while maintaining a good BA, but his success depends on his dedication. Davey Lopez appeared quite irritated with Belliard last year although he'll apparently give him one more year before he throws him off the team. The significant coaching changes in Milwaukee might help him reach his potential. I can't see a bid over $8 earning a profit unless he does have a career year, so stay below that and hope your fellow owners are also irritated with him.
Mordecai lucked into both playing time and roto value with Tatis' injuries. Mike has poor plate discipline and shouldn't be expected to repeat this average. Even if he does, he likely won't receive this many at-bats again. He should be relegated to an Ultra pick if you really need the positional flexibility, but I probably wouldn't bother with him for my teams.
Multiply these numbers by 2.5 for a conservative 510 AB, and you have his low-end 2002 projection: .255, 33HR, 88RBI, 8SB, and 95R. We may keep him at the $28 FAAB we bid for him this year, since he could easily increase his average another 30 points. While his plate discipline remains a bit soft in the majors, he's shown good ability to control the strike zone in the minors, as well as repeatedly racking up 20 or more steals. Ortiz's upside is Juan Pierre with power; that would place him as the most valuable NL roto player and he's even a second basemen. On the other hand, he did struggle a bit with Oakland before the trade, but I believe strongly in Ortiz's abilities and you can't really go wrong in drafting a Colorado position player. He also doesn't have Pierre's discipline at bat although hanging out with Helton, Walker, and Pierre can only help.
Perez is a solid utility infielder with fairly good plate discipline, OBP, and even a little power. I don't think he should be starting but the Phillies should be very happy with him backing up Rollins and Anderson. He won't hurt you at a dollar although you should look for alternatives as Perez has very little upside.
Most scouts don't like him and even the Braves think he's a tweener, unable to play 2B defense or hit enough for LF. However Bobby Cox likes him and all both Giles boys have ever done is hit the baseball hard. He'll earn the $10 rookie salary at which many of us own him, and could double that or more. I expect the Braves to hit him between Furcal and Chipper in one of the coziest lineup slots in the game, allowing him to put up solid R/RBI while also developing the other categories on his own.
Mackowiak has relatively awful plate discipline but has managed to hold a solid BA throughout his minor league career. He's developed some power and speed and might make a decent endgame or Ultra pick. He could see some significant time at 2B if the Pirates cut bait on Meares even though Rob's not a long-term solution there. He's riskier than some players, so I'm not sure that I'll be drafting him. Watch his spring playing time before making your decision.
I was playing Bard's Tale I, a fantasy adventure game, on my Commodore 128 several years ago with a friend. We were building our party up to around level 10 or so and were considering going into the castle. You need to win three battles against enemies of increasing difficulties before you can gain access. So against my friend's suggestions, I started fighting the battles since I wanted to see how good we were. We defeated the stone giant with one hit from our monk. We beat the stone golem with a single blow from our paladin. Then we lost four of our six party members when the Red Dragon breathed on us, frying our two best fighters and both the mages. This battle happened fairly quickly so I continued fighting without even thinking about the losses, and our remaining two guys were incinerated as fast as the first four. We're both sort of in shock at the moment since we'd been developing these characters for several hours and had won most battles fairly consistently and easily up to this point. We also didn't want to think about the amount of gold we needed to resurrect our party. Feeling a bit distraught and concerned that Geoff was quite pissed with me for killing our party, I just turned to him and said, "Oops." The resulting raucous laughter helped me feel better. 2002 was Edgardo Alfonzo's "Oops", both for the Mets and his roto owners. He played enough to hurt our averages without adding any of the quantitative numbers on which we were counting (heh). I see no reason why a healthy Alfonzo can't rebound to a value in the high $20s and I'd easily bid over the teens to acquire him. More than that might be risky unless he really impresses in spring training.
Veras did not have a horrible year before his injury and subsequent release, posting a .357 OBP that appeared fairly respectable compared to many other NL leadoff hitters. He's a minor league free agent since he finished the year with Boston's AAA team, and will likely slip under many people's radar in the draft. He could easily earn a salary in the mid-teens or more, since he was very comparable to Vina until this year, albeit with more consistent speed and better walk rates. Gamble up to $10 and he should earn your money as long as he's expected to start somewhere; more than that might be risky, but he still has solid upside.
Spivey's another player who compiled most of his value in only a couple weeks. He should maintain decent plate discipline and has some stolen base upside but don't expect any power help from him. I doubt he'll break camp with the team unless the Snakes can move Womack since they already have a loaded infield with Grace, Counsell, Womack, Williams, Bell, Counsell, and Durazo. He's worth a dollar gamble only if you think he'll grab more than a 100 at-bats, and I just don't see that right now despite the ancient injury risks that he backs up.
I accidentally reviewed Garcia as a minor league shortstop last week, forgetting he grabbed five at-bats this year. Here are my comments: Garcia has some interesting skills including a little speed and power, but he doesn't control the strike zone, can't hit home runs, and commits too many errors. I'm quite surprised that Atlanta spent a 40-man roster spot on him.
Blum's plate discipline isn't good enough to expect this BA to rise too much, but he could improve with reduced playing time. He should return as Montreal's top reserve with a good chance of another 400 at-bats. I like him as an Ultra pick due to the great positional flexibility (and he'll grab a game or two at shortstop and first) although I don't really want him starting due to the BA risk.
Bell looks like a Mafia accountant and is beginning to play like one, too. He still has good plate discipline but can't really get around on great fastballs any more. His speed is slipping and he'll max at a dozen homers. On the other hand, Bell's a must-draft in leagues that count character, and I don't see why he can't earn a buck or two above his dollar draft price. Of course he won't go that cheaply, and I wouldn't pay more than that despite decent skills since I think the Diamondbacks are resigned to spending $7 million or so on a pinch-hitter for 2002.
We'll review National Leaguers without Positive Draft Value tomorrow.
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Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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