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December
11th
2005
Out of the Frying Pan
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Our Philosophy

Rotohelp's Transaction Review
by Jessica Polko

This off-season Florida massively overhauled their roster, dealing veterans due sizeable salaries for a dozen pre-arbitration and prospect pitchers while also picking up a young first baseman and shortstop. While I do not invariably love the Marlins end in all the trades Florida completed, I find little fault with their decision to clear payroll when they possess coincidentally inexpensive young talent to fill out the roster. Fielding a competitive team does not require an astronomical payroll, and if properly handled this club holds the potential to match the success it otherwise would have achieved while building a financial base that should allow it to retain many of the players now developing.

11.24.2005: Boston sent SS-S Hanley Ramirez, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Jesus Delgado, & RHP Harvey Garcia to the Marlins for RHP Josh Beckett, 3B-R Mike Lowell, & RHP Guillermo Mota.

Boston signed Hanley Ramirez as a non-drafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2000. He spent the next season with the Red Sox's Dominican Summer League team and then split 2002 between Boston's Rookie-level Gulf Coast League affiliate and Lowell in the Short-Season New York-Pennsylvania League. Following a full season at A Augusta in the South Atlantic League, Ramirez divided most of his time in 2004 between A+ Sarasota in the Florida State League and AA Portland in the Eastern League with a short visit to the GCL while recovering from a wrist injury. The 21-year-old returned the AA Portland for the 2005 season, receiving September promotion to the majors.

Ramirez possesses acceptable plate discipline, solid speed, and mild power skills, though his baserunning skills could use improvement. I believe he would benefit greatly from spending 2006 at AAA, as he could use the time to solidify his plate discipline and hone his other skills. However, he enters Spring Training in competition for the starting position at shortstop on the major league team. Rushing Ramirez to the majors stands to slow and possibly stunt his development.

Both Anibal Sanchez and Jesus Delgado signed with the Red Sox as non-drafted free agents out of Venezuela in 2001. Sanchez spent that season as well as the next with Boston's Venezuelan Summer League team and then missed the 2003 season due to an elbow injury. He resumed pitching in 2004 with Lowell in the Short-Season New York-Pennsylvania League. Sanchez opened the 2005 season at A+ Wilmington in the Carolina League and received a July promotion to AA Portland, where he compiled a 63:16 K:BB with 53 H and 5 HR allowed in 57.1 IP for a 3.45 ERA over 11 starts. While he's now moving quickly through the minors, the 21-year-old's excellent skills have yet to falter. He should begin the 2006 season at AAA Albuquerque, but if the Marlins lose a starter due to injury midway through the season and Sanchez's performance in the Pacific Coast League resembles his AA output, he may join Florida's rotation before the end of the year.

Delgado pitched for the Red Sox's Dominican Summer League team in 2001 and then missed both 2002 and 2003 due to injury before spending most of 2004 at A Augusta. Pitching for Boston's 2005 South Atlantic League affiliate at Greenville, the 21-year-old compiled a 69:39 K:BB with 57 H and 3 HR allowed in 72 IP for a 3.50 ERA over 33 appearances. Moving from the rotation to the bullpen improved his K/9 IP, but he should not be allowed into AA without first improving his control. After the close of the minor league season, Boston sent Delgado to the Arizona Fall League, where he managed a 10:3 K:BB with 18 H and 1 HR allowed in 17.2 IP for a 4.08 ERA over 10 appearances. The sample size is small, however the AFL heavily favors hitters, so these numbers are promising. Nevertheless, Delgado doesn't look like much more than a flyer with moderate middle relief upside.

The Red Sox signed Harvey Garcia as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela in 2000. Following two seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League, one year split between the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League, and another with in the Short-season NY-Penn League, Garcia joined Delgado in the 2005 Greenville bullpen, compiling a 54:18 K:BB with 49 H and 3 HR allowed in 44.2 IP for a 2.01 ERA over 32 appearances. I'm unimpressed with this pair of 21-year-old relievers who lack the control to warrant a promotion to A+.

When healthy, Josh Beckett dominates his opposition and he continues to improve as he accumulates major league experience. Upon first receiving significant playing time in 2002, his ground-fly and walk rates were points of concern, but he quickly corrected his G-F and his walk rate has dropped each season so that in 2005 he finished with a 2.9 BB/9IP. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old has yet to traverse a season without visiting the disabled list. Although parting ways with such an impressive talent is difficult, trading Beckett now allows the Marlins both to avoid negotiating the raise the arbitration-eligible pitcher deservingly commands and to collect on his value at a high point in his career. Anibal Sanchez appears capable of matching or exceeding Beckett's skills within a couple of seasons and he was one of four players acquired in the trade. On the other hand, I understand Beckett's attraction to the Red Sox. None of his injuries put a healthy season out of the realm of possibility. With their resources, his upcoming salary increase poses little problem and acquiring a talent of his caliber and youth in trade may enable them to sign him to a profitable multi-year contract.

Lowell's followed an interesting path with the Marlins over the past few years. After extended negotiations, he signed a four-year deal with the club in December of 2003. However, that deal contained a clause that allowed him to opt out of the contract the following off-season if Florida failed to secure certain stadium funding. Trade rumors swirled, but the Marlins ultimately revised his deal in such a way as to persuade him from leaving. Despite their extensive efforts to retain Lowell, Miguel Cabrera's ability to play third and Lowell's disappointing season combined to place Lowell and his large contract on the trading block. While Lowell's skill ratios remained similar to his past performances, he walked less, hit less, and hit for less power in 2005. Since his decline has not been tied to an injury or a skill deficiency, the 31-year-old appears well positioned for a comeback season in 2006. Merely moving from Dolphins Stadium to Fenway Park should provide a substantial power boost for the right-handed hitter.

Holding on to him might not have fit well with the redesign of the Marlins, but Florida almost certainly sold low on Lowell, allowing his contract and sub-par season to drag down the return on Beckett. In light of their lack of outfield talent, the Marlins should have more seriously considered opening the season with Lowell while leaving Cabrera in the outfield a bit longer in the hope that Lowell would recover and command a generous bounty rather than depressing Beckett's yield.

Last season, Guillermo Mota missed time due to both inflammation in his elbow and late season fatigue. A slip in his control accompanied the injury problem. Although an off-season of rest may enable the 32-year-old to reassert himself as a proficient reliever, awarding Mota a multi-million dollar contract hardly fit with the Marlins' plans, particularly in light of the uncertainty regarding his effectiveness. Boston's resources allow the Red Sox to gamble that he will rebound and adjust their strategy if he fails to produce.

While I do not think Boston should have parted with Anibal Sanchez, this trade appears to possess substantial upside for the Red Sox. Meanwhile, despite the potential of Sanchez as well as that of Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins probably did not receive full value for their players, which is just as important as cutting payroll in this kind of organizational redesign.

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I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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