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December
5th
2005
Out of the Frying Pan
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Rotohelp's Transaction Review
by Jessica Polko

In an effort to provide more timely transaction commentary, we are restructuring this column. Rather than daily articles covering the last few weeks of transactions made by one or two clubs, articles will appear a couple of times each week and include commentary on recent events spanning several organizations. If you ever find that the new format has overlooked a transaction about which you were hoping to hear more, please feel free to send us a request via e-mail.

Of course, in the next few articles I want to tackle the major trades and signings that occurred while we were on break, so we will be looking at transactions a bit older than the new format typically will cover. Last minute site design alterations ate into my writing time last night, so we're starting slow today.

11.3.2005: San Diego sent RHP Brian Lawrence & cash to the Nationals for 3B-R Vinny Castilla.

We were somewhat surprised to see the Padres deal Lawrence given the vulnerability of their rotation and lack of clear plans for improving their starting corp. While Lawrence went from a 15-14 W-L record in 2004 to a 7-15 season in 2005, the run support San Diego provided in the two seasons largely explains the difference his record, as he received 4.88 runs of support in 2004 and only 3.68 in 2005. Lawrence experienced minimal declines in his strikeout, walk, and ground-fly rates, but his hit and homer rates both improved, and the limited deterioration looks more like a hiccup than a trend. Since RFK does not suppress home runs as well as PETCO, Lawrence's ground-fly ratio will need to rebound to prevent a destructive increase in his HR/9 in 2006, and the 29-year-old will not be able to count on a lot of support from the Nationals' offense, so I do not expect a dramatic turnaround in his W-L record. Nevertheless, he should provide Washington with a competent innings eater, a resource likely scarce in San Diego next season.

Meanwhile, Vinny Castilla may have developed plate patience his old age, but the 38-year-old is not likely to improve upon his 2005 performance and moving to PETCO should push his home runs for the season into single digits. I suspect the Padres will be back in the market for a third baseman by June. Given the deal clears the hot corner for Nationals' third base prospect Ryan Zimmerman, the transaction appears quite satisfactory for Washington and a mistake for San Diego.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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