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December
17th
2004
Out of the Frying Pan
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Timpulsiveness

by Jessica Polko

Yesterday, Atlanta dealt RHP Juan Cruz, LHP Dan Meyer, and OF-L Charles Thomas to Oakland for RHP Tim Hudson. The A's began to feel unable to sign Hudson to a contract extension before he reaches free agency at the end of the 2005 season and gave into pressures to obtain compensation for him now.

Cruz pitched effectively for the Braves in 2004. He continues to struggle somewhat with his control, but he's able to maintain a high strikeout rate and keep the ball on the ground. Consequently, as long as he's backed by a competent defense, the 26-year-old provides his team with valuable relief innings. He appears to deserve another starting opportunity, but Oakland plans to keep him in their bullpen unless injuries or ineffectiveness create an obvious opening.

I looked at Meyer when he received his first major league call-up this September. The A's intend for Meyer to compete for the fifth slot in their rotation in spring training. His strikeout rates allude to exciting potential, and prior to reaching triple-A, he also posted impressive walk rates. Therefore, while I think Oakland might want to give the 23-year-old another half season at triple-A, Meyer should continue the tradition of excellence the A's have established for their rotation.

Thomas made his major league debut when the Braves called him up in late June. Primarily serving as Atlanta's starting left fielder against right-handed pitchers, the 25-year-old hit .288 with a .368 OBP and .445 SLG on 68 H, 8 2B, 4 3B, and 7 HR with a 21:45 K:BB and 3/4 SB% in 236 AB over the remainder of the season. Unless he starts hitting more flyballs, I do not expect him to experience much power growth over the next few years. However, he possesses modest power skills, useful speed, and decent plate discipline. Thomas might deserve an opportunity to start full-time, but he'll likely slide into a left field platoon with Eric Byrnes.

As a groundball pitcher with excellent control, Hudson effectively limits the opposition's offense. His L/R platoon split is more of an indication of the way he dominants right-handed batters than of a problem with left-handed hitters. After striking out almost a batter an inning as a rookie, Hudson has watched his yearly strikeout rate drop almost without interruption. You can view the phenomenon in the following table:

Year		K/9 
1999		8.71
2000		7.52
2001		6.93
2002		5.74
2003		6.08
2007		4.91
While we might expect to see some correction in his strikeout rate as he transitioned from thrower to pitcher, this severe drop off creates concerns about arm trouble. Hudson's revealed no arm injury, but the 29-year-old experienced an oblique injury for the third consecutive season in 2004, and he has yet to discover a means of preventing future recurrences. I'm not expecting any more than another six-week absence in 2005, however his health provides a potential trouble spot to watch.

The Braves deserve credit for withholding 2B-R Marcus Giles from this trade, but after including Meyer, Atlanta needs to sign Hudson to a sensible extension to justify the expenditure. Meyer likely could have stepped into their rotation in the second half of 2005 and provided them with an inexpensive top of the rotation starter for the next six years. While Hudson could easily remain an elite starter over that time period, he'll cost much more. Consequently, while I do not relish the idea of Oakland parting with Hudson at this time, I feel the A's likely received the better end of this trade.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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