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June
19th
2004
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
SKoch Tape

by Jessica Polko

The White Sox dealt RHP Billy Koch and cash to the Marlins for SS-R Wilson Valdez following their June 17th contest in Florida. Koch lost his job as Chicago's closer last week, and the White Sox did not feel he fit well into their bullpen outside of that role. Outside of 2000, Koch has consistently posted a high walk rate, which leaves the 29-year-old's ERA at the mercy of his team's defense. When strong support from the defense allows him to keep his hit rate down, the baserunners from the extra walks he allows are less troublesome. Without that support, excess baserunners inevitably lead to runs. The Marlins possess one of the stronger defenses in the league, so Koch should be able to post an ERA below 5.00 for his new team.

Florida wants a setup man to reduce the frequency of closer RHP Armando Benitez's multi-inning appearances. I am not certain that Koch will be a big improvement over the pitchers who have rotated through the bottom of the Marlins' pen. Nevertheless, I will not dispute the gamble, as the resources needed to acquire Koch were fully expendable.

Montreal signed Valdez as a nondrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1997. He spent two seasons with the Expos' Dominican Summer League affiliate before joining their Rookie-level Gulf Coast League team in 1999. Valdez worked his way through Montreal's system to A+ by 2001, but the Marlins claimed him off waivers from the Expos prior to the 2002 season. The shortstop spent all of 2002 at AA and then split last year between AA and AAA. At the time of the trade, the 26-year-old was hitting .319 with a .357 OBP and .400 SLG on 91 H, 11 2B, 3 3B, and 2 HR with a 16:35 BB:K and 19/31 SB% in 285 at AAA Albuquerque in the Pacific Coast League.

While Valdez occasionally has displayed solid plate discipline, he needs to work on applying it more regularly. Meanwhile, his power skills appear limited, and his SB% seems to indicate that his baserunning skills need attention. However, his defensive skills are considered impressive, so he should receive an opportunity to win a bench job as a reserve infielder at some point. I fail to understand why teams wait to trade a pitcher until after removing the player from the closer's role, but given the extent to which the White Sox allowed Koch's perceived value to plummet, Chicago could have done worse.

In order to make room for Koch on the roster, Florida sent down RHP Mike Neu, who had only been in the majors since June 10th when he was called up to fill the roster spot opened by RHP Justin Wayne's trip to the disabled list. Neu spent the first few months of the season sidelined with a strained elbow and only made five appearances at AAA before the Marlins felt he was needed in the majors. Despite being asked to pitch four innings, the 26-year-old handled his one major league appearance competently, so as long as he pitches effectively at AAA, Neu should be in line for another call-up whenever a spot opens in the Florida pen.

Wayne experienced discomfort in his shoulder following his appearance in Florida's June 3rd game against the Mets in New York. Tests failed to reveal any structural damage, and he was already feeling better when the Marlins placed him on the disabled list. However, Florida wanted a healthy arm in the pen and felt Wayne should get some extra rest to make sure he fully recovered from his shoulder tendinitis before rejoining the team. Although Wayne has made two rehab appearances and is eligible to come off the disabled list today, the Marlins may choose to keep the 25-year-old at AAA until the team has a better grasp of how the new bullpen configuration is working.

When RHP Josh Beckett returned from the disabled list on June 17th, Florida demoted RHP Nate Bump. Beckett appears to have recovered from his blister, but in his first start after coming off the DL, he had to exit in the fourth inning due to a problem with his back. He apparently strained a muscle in his lower back around his ribcage, so his next start likely will be pushed back until June 26th, though the Marlins do not currently plan to send the 24-year-old back to the DL.

Bump has yet to demonstrate an acceptable walk or strikeout rate in the majors, but with his ability to keep the ball on the ground, he was marginally effective. Hopefully, spending time as a reliever at AAA will allow the 27-year-old to refine his skills, as he spent the majority of his minor league career as a starter and had little experience as a reliever before joining the Florida pen.

One day before activating Beckett, the club demoted LHP Tommy Phelps, calling up RHP Josias Manzanillo to replace him on the roster and in the pen. Although Phelps pitched fairly solidly out of the pen early in the season, the 30-year-old's stint in the Marlins' rotation left him tired, prompting Florida to give him some rest and call up a fresh arm. Unless he struggles at AAA, I expect Phelps to rejoin the team when ineffectiveness or injury create an opening in a few weeks.

Manzanillo signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in early May. Most of the 36-year-old's skills indicate he should be a very effective reliever, but his flyball tendencies repeatedly create home run troubles for him. Pitching out of Pro Player Stadium should help with that problem, but I do not expect Florida to hesitate to give a younger pitcher an opportunity if balls start flying out of the park.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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