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February
17th
2004
Out of the Frying Pan
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What's on Second?

by Jessica Polko

Three years ago Texas acquired a rare jewel. Over the weekend, the Rangers pawned that jewel as though it were cubic zirconium, dealing SS-R Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees for 2B-R Alfonso Soriano and a player to be named later.

I've always believed that an intelligent front office could build a championship club around ARod without breaking the bank. In light of the talent produced by the Texas minor league system, I felt fairly confident that even the Rangers' staff could accomplish the feat. Unfortunately, as Texas wasn't willing to accept responsibility for the clumsy management of the rest of their roster, the Rangers embraced the media's conclusion that fielding a winning team wasn't possible with the burden of Rodriguez's contract on their payroll. Ironically, this trade seems far more financially unsound than ARod's infamous contract.

While many articles reported the Rangers retain responsibility for paying Rodriguez another $67M, I believe Texas actually will dole out more than $94M. Information compiled by the AP indicates that the Rangers will cover all of the money deferred in the original contract, $43M in non-deferred salary over the next seven years, and $4M in unpaid signing bonus installments. The $67M figure is merely the sum of the $43M and the pre-interest deferred money from the last seven years of the deal. Given the adjusted interest rates and payment schedule worked out in conjunction with the trade, I calculate that the deferred salary will total more than $47M, though almost $16M of that sum is a result of the money deferred from the three years of the deal when Rodriguez played for Texas.

I won't argue with the Rangers making the deferred payments related to Rodriguez's salary during his time in Texas, and I don't have a big problem with the club covering the remainder of the signing bonus. However, I find it absurd that the organization would accept responsibility for one penny of the money related to ARod's salary over the next seven years when they will receive no return on their investment. The new interest rate and payment schedule will save Texas a little more than $1.2M, but aside from a five year respite between 2010 and 2016, Rodriguez won't be off the Rangers' books until 2025. Texas essentially agreed to retain the cumbersome portion of ARod's deal while losing the benefits of his talent and stardom. I find it unlikely that the Rangers will replace Rodriguez's production for less than the $122M the Yankees will pay ARod over the next seven years, so dealing him doesn't appear to have saved Texas money.

I will attempt to avoid denigrating Alfonso Soriano merely because he had the misfortune to be included in this deal and can't measure up to one of the best players in baseball history. Soriano is an effective baserunner with strong power skills, and he's succeeded despite an unsatisfactory walk rate.

The occasion of the trade led to the revelation that Soriano turned 28 in January rather than 26. New York was aware of his true age and informed Texas prior to completion of the deal. At first glance, the discrepancy might not appear that substantial, but as a 26-year-old Soriano still was a young player developing his skills. As a 28-year-old, he's suddenly only six months younger than ARod and potentially at his peak aside from some potential power growth. Moving from Yankee Stadium to the Ballpark at Arlington should amplify his power numbers, but I no longer believe a plate discipline breakthrough is around the corner.

Soriano easily could end up playing centerfield, where his offensive contribution wouldn't be as extraordinary as it is from a second baseman. New York moved him from short to second, so he potentially could step into the field position left open by the trade. Conversely, 2B-R Michael Young could slide over to short allowing Soriano to remain at second. The Rangers plan to experiment during spring training and don't intend to rush the decision.

Given Soriano is not signed to a multi-year contract, I believe his stay in Texas may be short. He gained arbitration eligibility for the first time this off-season and signed a one-year, $5.4M contract. Provided he doesn't suffer a major slump or injury in 2004, he'll probably be in position to command a salary in the range of $8M to $10M in 2005. Consequently, the Rangers' repeatedly stated interest in reallocating financial resources to their pitching staff could lead Texas to deal Soriano for pitching, though I don't expect any deals to go through before the season is underway.

The Rangers reportedly will choose the player to be named later from a list of five names, including SS-R Joaquin Arias, 2B-L Robinson Cano, OF-R Rudy Guillen, 3B/OF-L Bronson Sardinha, and RHP Jose Valdez. I'll try to comment on the chosen player when the final selection is announced, however none of the five appear likely to make an impact in the majors in the next three years.

I will continue this discussion tomorrow by examining the New York end of the deal, including commentary on the hole in the Yankees' infield, which has now shifted to second base.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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