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February
7th
2004
Out of the Frying Pan
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Red Sox FrancoNation

by Jessica Polko

When Boston first hired Terry Francona as their new manager, I postponed comment. Given their moves over the past month, I feel compelled to address the subject. While Francona's first stint as a major league manager went badly, he supposedly has grown since that time and is ready for a new challenge.

Francona, whose father played major league baseball for 15 seasons, began his own baseball career when Montreal selected him in the first round of the 1980 draft. As a major league player, he spent time at first base, in the outfield, and as a DH over the course of a 10-year career. Francona transitioned from player to coach in 1991, serving as a minor league hitting instructor for the White Sox. Chicago then hired him to manage South Bend, their A Midwest League affiliate in 1992. In 1993, Francona advanced to AA Birmingham in the Southern League, where he remained through 1995. Francona's time in Birmingham coincided with Michael Jordan's flirtation with baseball, giving the manager a taste of media frenzy despite his modest post. After leaving Birmingham, Francona managed a Dominican Winter League team for two seasons. He undertook his first major league managerial position in 1997 with the Phillies. Four years later, he left Philadelphia with a 285-363 record. The Phillies' Pythagorean record over that same time was 282-366. After leaving Philadelphia, Francona spent a season in the Cleveland front office. In 2002, he took a position as the Texas bench coach, and last year he served as Oakland's bench coach.

In December, the Red Sox signed the 44-year-old to a four-year contract with an option for 2008. As the Phillies' manager, Francona didn't support much pointless base stealing, and I don't expect that to change with the Red Sox. Players with a history of success will continue to steal; those without won't. I generally don't like the idea of recycling managers who've done poorly in the past, but Francona doesn't appear to have been a horrible manager with the Phillies, and he's spent the intervening years gaining more experience rather than in some tangential position such as broadcasting. Just as players are rushed to the majors before receiving sufficient development time, some managerial candidates will be hired before they're ready. That isn't to say they won't develop into successful major league managers with additional instruction. Boston needed to move away from Grady Little and bringing a rookie to that market would have invited disaster. The Red Sox hope that they've found a manager in Francona who will optimize the talent under his care, rather than one whose ministrations squander the franchise's potential.

Yesterday, Boston signed OF-L Trot Nixon to a three-year, $19.5M contract. The Red Sox and Nixon previously agreed on a one-year, $6.6M contract on January 20th, but that deal was only a stopgap measure to avoid proceeding toward salary arbitration. Nixon reportedly will receive a $6.5M salary in each season of the contract, though the deal supposedly includes escalator clauses that could increase his salary by an unspecified amount if, for example, he finishes among the top 20 in MVP voting. Nixon was arbitration-eligible and would have been eligible for free agency following the 2004 season. The outfielder has been with the Boston organization since the Red Sox drafted him out of high school with the 7th overall pick in the first round of the 1993 draft, and he deserves this reward.

Throughout his career, Nixon has maintained solid plate discipline, and his power continues to grow. Given his G-F has now dropped to an exciting .66, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nixon challenge for 40 homers if he reaches 500 AB in 2004. The 29-year-old missed time with a calf injury last September, but the Red Sox don't seem concerned about the problem recurring. While he still struggles against left-handed pitching, Nixon is committed to trying to overcome that weakness, and even if the Red Sox were to restrict him to a platoon role, he might earn this salary. Although Nixon's age indicates he's peaking now, his production still could increase substantially if he manages to conquer his problems with left-handed pitching, and there's little reason to fear a sudden drop in his current output. Therefore, I heartily support the Red Sox's decision to retain Nixon.

Boston wasn't able to complete a deal with 1B-L David Ortiz before the two sides needed to exchange salary numbers for arbitration. On January 20th, the Red Sox offered $4.2M while Ortiz requested $5M. However, the parties were able to reach an agreement in late January prior to a salary arbitration hearing. The 28-year-old signed a one-year, $4.5875M contract and will earn an additional $50,000 if he reaches 525 plate appearances and for reaching 600 PA.

Ortiz and Nixon are similar players in terms of power and plate discipline. Like Nixon, Ortiz also struggles against left-handed pitching. However, while Nixon is a year and a half older than Ortiz, Nixon still seems more likely to continuing improving. Ortiz also doesn't possess Nixon's capacity to play the outfield and lacks Nixon's long-standing affiliation with the Red Sox. Ortiz should be eligible for free agency following the season, but I don't think the Red Sox would have benefited substantially from signing him to a multi-year deal. Boston can always pursue Ortiz after the season if they decide he fits into both their plans and budget.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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