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December
19th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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The Four Year Ichiro

by Jessica Polko

Seattle agreed to a four-year, $44M contract with OF-L Ichiro Suzuki yesterday. Ichiro will reportedly receive a $6M signing bonus in addition to a salary of $5M in 2004 and $11M in each of the last three seasons of the contract. In the first three years of the deal, he'll receive a $50,000 bonus for making 400 PA and $100,000 bonuses for 500 and 600 plate appearances. The bonus numbers double in the final year of the deal. Reportedly, the club will also provide Ichiro with an interpreter, personal trainer, ground transportation during Spring Training and the regular season, four first class round trip airline tickets between Japan and Seattle, and a housing allowance that starts at $28,000 in 2004 and goes up by $1,000 each year of the deal.

Ichiro makes his mark at the plate as a contact hitter and should be able to maintain that skill through the end of this deal, though I hope his walk rate rebounds to its 2002 levels after drifting back to his rookie level in 2003. The 30-year-old remains and asset on the bases, and his G-F ratio dropped substantially last year, which could indicate he'll begin to display more power outside of batting practice. Meanwhile, his defense in right field also is an asset to the club. Ichiro's on-field production doesn't quite justify this salary, but considering the worldwide attention and the enormous fan base he brings to the Mariners, this deal looks like a good investment for Seattle.

Earlier in the week, Seattle signed 3B-S Scott Spiezio to a three-year, $9.15M contract that includes a $250,000 buyout on a $3.25M option for 2007. He'll reportedly receive a salary of $2.5M in 2004 and $3.1M in each of the last two years of the deal, as well as a $200,000 signing bonus.

The Mariners find Spiezio's ability to field all three bases a plus, but they plan to have him start at third rather than move around. If Seattle is unable to trade 3B-R Jeff Cirillo, Cirillo will work off the bench or be released. While Spiezio has demonstrated solid plate discipline during a few seasons, his patience has been inconsistent and wavered in 2003, leading to a drop in his production. The change in ballparks should slightly improve his power while hurting his batting average.

I believe he has the ability to earn this salary, but he wasn't moving in a positive direction last year, and unrealized potential shouldn't substantially factor into the process of determining the salary of 31-year-olds. Another organization might have tendered Spiezio a similar salary in 2004, but I doubt anyone else would have offered him both the money and the years of this deal given the current market. The contracts Seattle has signed this off-season don't reflect their status as a club intent on frugality.

Last week, OF-S Randy Winn agreed to a two-year, $7.25M contract with a joint option for 2006. Winn was arbitration-eligible this year and likely would have been eligible for free agency after the 2004 season before signing this contract. He'll reportedly receive a salary of $3.5M in 2004 and $3.75M in 2005 with Seattle holding a $5M option for 2006. If the Mariners don't pick up their end of the option, Winn can activate his end and receive a salary of $3.75M in 2006. A bonus of $125,000 is available in both the first two seasons of the deal should he accumulate 650 PA in a single season.

While he spent most of 2003 in left field, Winn will take over for OF-R Mike Cameron in centerfield in 2004. Like Spiezio, Winn has demonstrated solid plate discipline in the past and faltered last season. The 29-year-old's groundball tendencies leave him with only marginal power, but he still has some skill as a baserunner. Although I believe Winn can rebound and I wasn't fond of the idea of the Mariners non-tendering him, I nevertheless think this contract appears generous for an outfielder without substantial power.

SS-S Carlos Guillen signed a one-year, $2.5M contract. In addition to a $100,000 signing bonus and $2.4M salary in 2004, he'll reportedly have an opportunity to earn a $50,000 bonus for 400 PA and $100,000 bonuses for 450 PA and every 25 PA over 450 through 575 PA, as well as a $150,000 bonus for 600 PA. He was arbitration-eligible this year and likely will be eligible for free agency following the 2004 season.

Guillen possesses sound plate discipline and marginal power, however he isn't really a threat on the bases. Overall, he's a solid starter at his position, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the 28-year-old take a step forward in 2004. Although he was troubled by a groin problem for much of 2003, his numbers improved this year.

Shortly after the deal was concluded, Seattle and Cincinnati reportedly completed a trade that would have sent Guillen to the Reds for SS-S Omar Vizquel. However, Vizquel failed his physical, and the Mariners pulled out of the trade. Given Vizquel seems quite unlikely to perform better than Guillen in 2004 and will make more money, Seattle never should have seriously considered the agreement.

The Mariners continue to display interest in other shortstops, particularly SS-R Rich Aurilia, so Guillen could be pushed to a reserve role before Opening Day. I find Guillen's salary mostly in line with what he offers the team as a starting shortstop but well over what he should be paid if forced into a bench role, therefore Seattle's activities make little sense.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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