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November
20th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Bobby & Ted's Excellent Adventure

by Jessica Polko

On Tuesday, Oakland dealt LHP Ted Lilly to Toronto for OF-S Bobby Kielty and a player to be named later or $10,000. The Blue Jays' top priority this off-season is to bolster their rotation, and the club has been interested in Lilly for quite some time. In late July, there even were reports that Toronto completed a deal to send RHP Kelvim Escobar to Oakland for Lilly and RHP Joe Blanton, but that trade never became official.

The Athletics possess reserves of young pitching talent and finally have realized they need to improve their outfield. Kielty isn't the elite outfielder that their offense requires to bring them out of the middle of the pack, but he's a step in the right direction and might be the leadoff hitter they need. He doesn't possess much power, but he seems to have useful speed, and while he needs to work on his contact rate, Kielty's walk rate keeps his OBP up.

His platoon split this year jumps out from his numbers as he hit .300 with a .471 OBP and .550 SLG on 42 H, 11 2B, and 8 HR with a 24:20 BB:K in 140 AB against left-handed pitching while against right-handed pitching he only hit .216 with a .328 OBP and .328 SLG on 62 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, and 5 HR with a 47:72 BB:K in 287 AB. However, I don't believe Oakland should slot him as a platoon player going into next season as only a year before his splits were more favorable against righties than lefties. The fluctuation suggests the young switch-hitter altered his concentration after perceiving a problem in 2002. He's never held a full-time job in the majors, and until he's given the opportunity to be an everyday player, Oakland really won't know what they have acquired.

Nevertheless, I believe the Athletics were carelessly nearsighted when making this trade. Kielty possesses substantial potential, but due to the structure of his training, he still needs time to refine his skills, so he's not fully able to take advantage of the fact that at 27 he's probably at his physical peak. The fact that he's not arbitration-eligible this year is nice for their 2004 budget, however if he's in the majors as expected he will be in line for a significant raise next year. Lilly was expendable to the Athletics due to the productivity of their farm system, so Oakland was willing to trade him to acquire Kielty, but that doesn't mean Kielty was worth Lilly.

Unlike Kielty, Lilly is eligible for arbitration for the first time this year. However, he's still only expected to make somewhere around $2M, which almost every team in baseball should agree will be a bargain. Among mature top quality left-handed starters, probably only Johan Santana will be more economical. Lilly compiled a 147:58 K:BB with 179 H and 24 HR allowed in 178.1 IP over 32 appearances including 31 starts. He's a flyball pitcher, making his homer rate a source of mild concern, but he improved somewhat in 2003 and his other skills remain quite solid. Regardless of the identity of the PTBNL, Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi's relationship with Oakland manager Billy Beane appears to have netted Ricciardi a bargain. The Athletics should have been able to acquire much more for the young lefty.

Toronto hopes to slot Lilly third in their rotation after RHP Roy Halladay and an as yet unknown #2. The Blue Jays would like to re-sign Escobar to fill that two slot, but they have already made a move to fill out the bottom of the rotation. Earlier on Tuesday, Toronto signed RHP Pat Hentgen to a one-year, $2.2M contract.

The Blue Jays originally drafted Hentgen out of high school with a fifth round pick in the 1986 draft. He made his debut as a Toronto reliever on September 3rd of 1991 against the Orioles. Hentgen spent his first full year with the major league club in 1993 and won the Cy Young Award as a Blue Jay in 1996. He left Toronto for St. Louis via trade following the 1999 season. A year later he signed with Baltimore as a free agent, but Tommy John surgery cut short his first season as an Oriole in August. He didn't return to the majors until September of 2002, so 2003 was his first full year back after the surgery.

He's not an overly dominant pitcher, but he's effective as a bottom of the rotation starter. In 2003, he compiled a 100:58 K:BB with 150 H and 25 HR allowed in 160.2 IP for a 4.09 ERA over 28 appearances including 22 starts. Further arm troubles do not seem imminent for the 35-year-old. While $2.2M seems a bit high, I'm not going to complain too much given his history with the organization. Hentgen was with the Blue Jays when Halladay first came up, and Halladay considers him a mentor.

Toronto has Hentgen pegged as their fourth starter. The fifth spot in the rotation reportedly belongs to RHP Josh Towers, but LHP Mark Hendrickson will receive an opportunity to take it away from Towers in Spring Training.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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