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November
3rd
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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NL Central 2003-04 Off-Season Thoughts

by Jessica Polko

Chicago Cubs

The following Cubs are eligible for free agency: RHP Antonio Alfonseca, LHP Shawn Estes, OF-R Doug Glanville, OF-L Tom Goodwin, 2B-R Mark Grudzielanek, LHP Mark Guthrie, 1B-R Eric Karros, OF-L Kenny Lofton, OF-L Troy O'Leary, RHP Dave Veres, and SS-L Tony Womack.

OF-R Sammy Sosa chose not to exercise the out clause available in his contract and will remain with the Cubs. Chicago paid the $1M buyout on Karros' $9M option and the $300,000 buyout on Guthrie's $2.2M option. Lofton will move to an organization with an opening for a full-time centerfielder, as the Cubs will be happy to see Corey Patterson back in center in the spring. He should land in Texas, though I expect Anaheim and Oakland to show interest.

The Cubs would like Grudzielanek to return at a reasonable price, but they won't stretch their pocket books for him when 2B-S Luis Castillo's on the market. I also expect the club to pursue 2B-L Todd Walker, as second base is a priority this off-season. Chicago wants to upgrade behind the plate but probably will fill that need through trade, since other teams will snap up C-R Javy Lopez and C-R Ivan Rodriguez. They have a passing interest in improving at short, however I don't expect them to go out of their way to secure someone new with SS-R Alex Gonzalez still under contract.

Chicago's off-season will be a success if the Cubs fully commit to blossoming homegrown studs OF-L Corey Patterson, 1B-L Hee Seop Choi, RHP Carlos Zambrano, RHP Juan Cruz, and RHP Kyle Farnsworth.

Cincinnati Reds

The following Reds are eligible for free agency: RHP Todd Van Poppel.

RHP Jimmy Haynes holds a $2.5M player option, which he should exercise. Cincinnati doesn't figure to play heavily in the free agent market, though they'll probably pick-up a mid-level starter to add depth to their rotation. We'll likely see a continuation of the payroll dumping they began during the regular season.

Cincinnati's off-season will be a success if new GM Dan O'Brien realizes that no sane person should deal a future elite hitter like OF-R Austin Kearns or OF-L Adam Dunn simply to add pitching depth.

Houston Astros

The following Astros are eligible for free agency: C-R Brad Ausmus, RHP Kirk Bullinger, RHP Jared Fernandez, OF-L Orlando Merced, RHP Dan Miceli, RHP Brian Moehler, LHP Ron Villone, IF-S Jose Vizcaino, and RHP Rick White.

Ausmus had one of the worst offensive years of his career in 2003, but the Astros are still interested in re-signing him. The 34-year-old wouldn't mind returning to Houston but would prefer a multi-year deal. San Diego will compete with the Astros for his services.

I'll have more to say about today's trade of LHP Billy Wagner over the next few days, so for now I'll just mention that Houston now has the money to pursue another starting pitcher, namely LHP Andy Pettitte.

The Astros' off-season will be a success if Houston opens a spot for OF-R Jason Lane by trading OF-R Richard Hidalgo and then uses the money saved to add veteran pitching depth.

Milwaukee Brewers

The following Brewers are eligible for free agency: RHP Dave Burba, SS-R Royce Clayton, C-R Keith Osik, C-R Eddie Perez, RHP Todd Ritchie, LHP Glendon Rusch, and OF-L John Vander Wal.

Milwaukee paid the $290,000 buyout on Clayton's $3M option as well as the $500,000 buyout on Rusch's $5.155M option. Vander Wal should be the most sought after of this group of free agents, though he seems the most likely to rejoin the Brewers, as they'll let him start. Burba may also want to return after his unexpected rebound in Milwaukee, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of the catchers remained with the Brewers.

The club plans to focus on signing 1B-R Richie Sexson and then OF-L Geoff Jenkins to extensions this winter. If they're unable to sign Sexson to an extension, he'll likely hit the trade market. I don't expect them to do much with free agents this year. They may pick up a low-end starter and a middle infielder or two but nothing big.

Milwaukee's off-season will be a success if the Brewers acquire a catcher and a couple of infielders, who possess excellent defensive skills, to help their young pitchers develop.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The following Pirates are eligible for free agency: RHP Jeff D'Amico, UT-R Jose Hernandez, 2B-R Pat Meares, 2B-R Jeff Reboulet, 2B-R Pokey Reese, OF-R Reggie Sanders, 1B/OF-L Matt Stairs, and RHP Julian Tavarez.

Pittsburgh paid the $1.5M buyout on Reese's $5M option. Meares should be headed for retirement. Stairs had interest in returning to the Pirates, but they failed to present him with a reasonable offer, so he'll seek employment elsewhere. The Cubs, Royals, Brewers, Tigers, and Expos should all pursue him.

Reggie Sanders fits well with many teams, including Arizona, Detroit, Kansas City, L.A., Milwaukee, and San Francisco. Baltimore and Tampa Bay should also show interest if their respective first choices of OF-R Vladimir Guerrero and OF-S Carl Everett sign elsewhere. Jose Hernandez failed to cause the teams who didn't sign him regret, and he'll likely have difficulty finding a job this winter, but I think he might find a job with the Expos.

The Pirates' off-season will be a success if Pittsburgh generally avoids the AAAA shopping spree they undertook last winter, allowing them to evaluate prospects like OF-R Jason Bay, OF-L Tike Redman, IF-R Freddy Sanchez, and 2B-S Bobby Hill by giving them full-time big league jobs.

St. Louis Cardinals

The following Cardinals are eligible for free agency: UT-R Miguel Cairo, RHP Chris Carpenter, RHP Cal Eldred, LHP Jeff Fassero, C-R Joe Girardi, LHP Sterling Hitchcock, LHP Steve Kline, LHP Lance Painter, OF-L Orlando Palmeiro, CR-R Eduardo Perez, RHP Russ Springer, RHP Garrett Stephenson, RHP Brett Tomko, 2B-L Fernando Vina, and C-R Chris Widger.

St. Louis paid the $1M buyout on Vina's $4.5M option, the $1M buyout on Hitchcock's $7M option, and the $250,000 buyout on Fassero's $1.5M option. Despite his slipping productivity, quite a few clubs have expressed interest in Vina including the Cubs and Red Sox. He's also an option for Florida should Castillo move to another team. Girardi may opt for retirement if he doesn't receive an offer he likes this off-season.

The Cardinals are interested in trimming their payroll and overhauling the club after a season of injury trouble. Only UT-R Albert Pujols, SS-R Edgar Renteria, and 3B-R Scott Rolen have secure positions in the future of the club. Given their interest in keeping costs down, I expect them to do most of their work over the trade market rather than with free agents, but St. Louis' moves this off-season should be interesting to watch.

St. Louis' off-season will be a success if the Cardinals add a few healthy veteran pitchers while not gutting their offense.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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