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March
5th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
At their Witasick's End

by Jessica Polko

Juan Uribe is scheduled to undergo surgery today to repair a fractured metatarsal in his right foot. Doctors will insert a pin into the foot to aid the bone in healing properly. Given the time the bone needs to heal and allowing for some rehab time, Uribe will be out until at least June. The injury is believed to be the result of a stress reaction rather than a sudden traumatic event such as dropping an anvil on his foot, however Uribe did not become aware of the problem until he began feeling pain during Saturday's game.

While Colorado was prepared to break camp with Uribe as the starting shortstop, this injury may allow them to field a stronger team. Jose Hernandez, who was slotted to start at third, will now take over at short, opening third for Chris Stynes. Stynes probably offers more offense than Uribe would have. Brent Butler could also play some third base, but that would likely leave a lesser offensive player at second. I'm sure Colorado now wishes they hadn't traded Jason Romano, who can play second as well as outfield, to LA for outfielder Luke Allen.

If the lineup works well while Uribe is out, the Rockies could choose to give Uribe a long rehab assignment at AAA, as he was rushed to the majors and could use the additional time to work on his offense. Meanwhile, Luis Lopez's chances of making the team improved slightly, as while Hernandez can start at short, the Rockies have few back-up options at the position.


Elsewhere in the division, the Padres have probably received the worst injury news of the spring. Trevor Hoffman needed shoulder surgery in which doctors shaved the end of his clavicle (collar bone) at the end of February. He also has a 40% rotator cuff tear that he did not have the surgeons repair as he hopes it will heal while he rests following the clavicle procedure. Hoffman hopes to return by the All-Star break, but I believe that date is highly optimistic. I regret not expressing more pessimism at the Padres projections of his return from his October shoulder surgery, though most of his current problems seem unrelated.

Many people are using Jaret Wright's recovery times from a similar procedure as a guide for projecting Hoffman's rehab schedule. Wright wasn't even able to throw for three months after his surgery and was still suffering from shoulder soreness as recently as last season. Hoffman is also around ten years older than Wright was when he had his surgery. Consequently, San Diego might be well advised to encourage Hoffman to approach his rehab slowly with the goal of having him fully healthy for next season. The Padres are unlikely to approach a playoff run this season and will need Hoffman more in the future when their youngsters have put them in a position to compete for the division.

Hoffman was among the players San Diego was seeking to sign to contract extensions last season, but these injury issues have likely put those discussions on hold indefinitely. Securing a pitcher who could easily break the career saves record in a few years is worth a bit of extra money. However given the number of pitching prospects they possesses, it wouldn't make a lot of sense for them to sign an injured Hoffman to a large deal, when they could find a comparable inexpensive replacement and spend the money on other areas. They are under somewhat of a time crunch, as at the end of the year they either have to pick up his $10M option for 2004, work out an extension, or activate their $2M buyout, making him a free agent.

Interestingly, Wright is among the pitchers the Padres are considering as substitute closers in Hoffman's absence. His injury problems and historical control troubles have made a move to the bullpen necessary for Wright. A switch to relief could improve his effectiveness, but I'm not sufficiently confident in his health or skills to feel he'd make a good closer.

While a committee approach is usually considered when the primary closer goes down, I believe that Bruce Bochy is accustomed to having a set closer and will seek to find a single pitcher to close. The Padres also need a reliable bullpen to support their young starting staff.

Consequently, Jay Witasick appears to be the leading candidate to receive the majority of the save opportunities in Hoffman's absence. Witasick has certainly displayed closer caliber skills in recent years and has also served as Hoffman's setup man in the past. The Padres are also paying Witasick more than anyone excluding Hoffman in the pen and teams frequently equate salary with skill.

Brandon Villafuerte could be handed the closer role if the Padres want to use Witasick for setup work and emphasize their middle relief rather than the end of the pen. Villafuerte is neither a particularly good nor particularly bad reliever, so he would probably perform the job effectively with little flair. However, he has little major league experience and I think San Diego would benefit from the mental security of a more veteran closer.

There's been some discussion of the Padres trading for Todd Jones, who the Rockies seem quite open to dealing. While I don't see a true need for the trade, I see little in Jones' skills to indicate he isn't capable of resuming closing duties and performing as well as any non-elite closer in the game.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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