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January
27th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
Get Thee to a Nunnari

by Jessica Polko

Montreal hasn't given curious onlookers much to talk about other than rumors this off-season. Aside from the trade of Bartolo Colon, the club hasn't made any splashy moves. The Expos were able to settle with three arbitration-eligible players before numbers were exchanged earlier this month. Orlando Cabrera agreed to a one-year, $3.3M contract, which represents a $900,000 raise from his 2002 salary.

If Cabrera had repeated his 2001 season, he likely would have earned a larger raise. However while he demonstrated more speed and his skills remained similar to prior seasons, his batting average dropped, bringing down his OBP and he hit for less power. Given the maintenance of his skills, I suspect that his power was somewhat sapped by lingering effects of the back problems he experienced in the spring, which probably also contributed to the BA drop.

Hopefully an off-season without any new health problems will allow him to return to hitting with more strength, so we should see a rebound and the Expos likely received a discount. The 28-year-old seems set to glide into a nice prime that should stretch over the next few years. Anyone interested in purchasing the club should hope Cabrera remains with the team, so they can offer him a multiyear deal after the 2003 season, as he's eligible for free agency in 2004.

Montreal signed Michael Barrett to a one-year, $2.6M contract. Barrett demonstrated his best plate discipline since 1999 in 2002, while gaining additional power with age and physical maturity. He even managed to steal a half-dozen bases, though they were likely the result of attentive baserunning rather than increased raw speed. The 26-year-old should continue developing in 2003, and while I'm not sure his strike zone judgment will experience much more growth, I think we'll see even more power from him.

However, I don't expect him to be an Expo for much of 2003. Brian Schneider demonstrated to Montreal last season that he's capable of assuming the starting catching job if Barrett leaves. Considering Barrett's escalating price and the Expos' tight budget, that makes Barrett prime trade bait. Even though Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin passed on Ivan Rodriguez, his continued interest in catchers makes me believe the Brewers could acquire Barrett. Barrett also has a good chance of landing with the Brewer divisional rival Cubs, as Chicago likes the idea of using him as a third baseman. The market seems a bit stale at the moment, so now that they've agreed on a contract, I suspect Montreal will hold onto him for a month or two of the season and then deal him, perhaps to some team made needy by an early injury. Hopefully, Barrett will oblige them and raise his trade value even further with a strong start.

Tony Armas, Jr. signed a one-year, $2.1M contract. Armas walks too many batters to be a top of the rotation pitcher, however he maintains a solid strikeout rate and has been able to limit his total baserunners with a reduced hit rate. Consequently, he provides the Expos with a solid if not spectacular starting pitcher. However, Montreal should be able to find similar pitching for less money, making him good trade bait during the season.

The Expos have three other pitchers awaiting arbitration hearings, including Joey Eischen, Orlando Hernandez, and Javier Vazquez. Eischen mastered his control problems last season and pitched very effectively for the Expos. I expect he'll easily win his hearing in which he's asking for $875,000 while Montreal has offered $725,000. Reportedly Montreal will only be responsible for $300,000 of Hernandez's 2003 salary, as the White Sox will pick up the remainder, which is interesting information as it puts Montreal much closer to their budgetary goals than previously thought. I also suspect this means they'll let an arbitration board decide his salary rather than settle; Hernandez wants $4.5M while the Expos are offering $4M. Vazquez has asked for $7.15M while the Expos are offering $6M. I think Montreal should be able to beat him by pointing to Kerry Wood's $6.19M deal, though they could still settle.

In early December, the Expos re-signed free agent Wil Cordero to a one-year, $600,000 contract. I think they likely could have acquired more for their money with another player, but the 31-year-old offers them a fairly consistent level of production and useful position flexibility.

The Expos have tried to add depth through minor league signings to keep payroll costs down. I'll discuss their pitching acquisitions another day, but their offensive additions include: SS-S Cristian Berroa, C-R Jason Brown, 1B-S Glenn Davis, OF-R Mario Encarnacion, C-R Tony Eusebio, OF-L Quincy Foster, C-R Matt Garrick, SS-R Victor Gutierrez, OF-R Noah Hall, C-R Randy Knorr, OF-R Scott Krause, IF-R Randy Meadows, UT-R Anthony Medrano, OF-L Ntema Ndungidi, 1B-L Talmadge Nunnari, and OF-R Luis Ortiz.

As a 23-year-old switch-hitting shortstop, Cristian Berroa offers Montreal some upside. However, he's been unable to establish decent plate discipline skills and generally hasn't maintained a strong SB%. I see a little power potential, but the Expos should leave him in AA for the season while encouraging him to walk more.

Jason Brown split last season between the AA Eastern League affiliates of Pittsburgh and Montreal. At this point he hasn't even graduated to AAAA catcher and I don't expect the 28-year-old to reach that level without a drastic improvement in his contact rate.

LA drafted Glen Davis out of Vanderbilt University with the 25th overall pick of the first round of the 1997 draft. He joined AA Harrisburg after spending the first portion of the season in the Mets' system. The 27-year-old's fifth season at AA wasn't much different from his past four. He displayed considerable power potential and a decent walk rate with a high number of strikeouts. I think he deserves a promotion to AAA, but the Expos may choose to fill those roster spots with other players, as his lack of position flexibility limits requires him to display a higher level of offense to be useful to a team.

Mario Encarnacion performed acceptably at AAA Iowa last season. He has moderate power potential and probably offers more offense than some of the outfield reserves in the majors, but the 25-year-old needs to improve his contact rate to earn serious consideration for a regular bench job. There are several other players in front of him in line for playing time in the Montreal outfield, so I don't think he'll reach the majors in 2003.

Eusebio failed to sign with another club after the Rockies released him last spring. I don't expect the 35-year-old to come back sharp after the year away, however he'd likely assume the back-up job behind Schneider if the Expos trade Barrett.

Quincy foster joined AA Harrisburg after starting the season with Florida's Eastern League affiliate. After a couple seasons of promising plate discipline, his strike zone judgment regressed in 2002. Additionally while he usually steals over a dozen bases a season, he generally has a poor success rate. I doubt the Expos will even advance him to AAA in 2003.

Anaheim drafted Matt Garrick out of Texas A&M University in the seventh round of the 1997 draft and traded him to St. Louis for Mark Petkovsek following the 1998 season. He has weak plate discipline and no complementary speed or power skills, so the 27-year-old brings no real offensive upside to the Expos and may not even play at AAA in 2003.

Pittsburgh signed Victor Gutierrez as a nondrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1994. He demonstrated solid skills through A+, including decent plate discipline, speed, and some power. Gutierrez then went to play in the independent Atlantic League. The 25-year-old should spend most of the 2003 season at AA, but he has more upside than many of these players.

Originally drafted by Montreal out of San Jose Community College in the 27th round of the 1995 draft, Noah Hall returns to the Expos after two years away. He signed with St. Paul of the independent Northern League after his release in 2001 and was purchased by the Reds at the end of that season. While he didn't play much last season, he continued to show the strong plate discipline and promising power skills he displayed in the Montreal system. The 25-year-old should advance to AAA this year and develop into a decent reserve outfield option in the next couple seasons.

Randy Knorr has spent the last two seasons in the Expos' system. He has solid power and sufficient plate discipline to be a decent back-up catcher in the majors if needed, making the 34-year-old the primary alternative to Eusebio.

Scott Krause has shown some power potential in the past, but his contact rate prevents him from maintaining solid production levels. The 29-year-old isn't anything more than organizational filler.

Randy Meadows was with the Expos system back in 1999. However, I don't know why teams continue to pluck him from the independent leagues as he has shown no offensive promise. I'm not sure the 25-year-old deserves to play in A+ in 2003.

On the other hand, Anthony Medrano could make a substantial contribution to the Expos' major league team in 2003 if he can make it onto the roster. Montreal acquired Medrano from Cleveland in exchange for Nick Dempsey last season. The 28-year-old has shown excellent plate discipline and solid speed skills for several years and is capable of playing everywhere except catcher.

I discussed Ndungidi when he returned to the Baltimore system last season. He went to high school in Montreal and lives there, so it is understandable that he'd want to play in the Expo organization. However, I suspect 23-year-old will spend most of the season in AA unless he makes considerable progress.

Montreal drafted Nunnari out of Jacksonville University in the ninth round of the 1997 draft. He left the organization and signed with the Pensacola Pelicans in the independent Southeastern League last season. The 27-year-old has displayed promising plate discipline in the minors as well as moderate speed and power skills. While the Expos have an opening at first base, I don't expect them to fill it with someone from the minors. Consequently, Nunnari isn't likely to see time in the majors before September and given the Expos decision to keep cost down by limiting their roster expansion last season, I doubt he'll leave AAA. He doesn't have quite enough offense to overcome his lack of position flexibility to earn a bench job.

The Expos purchased Luis Ortiz's contract from Winnipeg of the independent Northern League in 2001 and he's remained with the organization since that time. He needs to improve his walk rate, but his plate discipline shows promise and he has some power. If Montreal doesn't bring in a first baseman, the 32-year-old could receive a shot at some point during the year, but I believe they'll find alternatives.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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