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January
25th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Lieberated

by Jessica Polko

With their 2003 rotation overflowing, the Yankees made a move to secure a starter for the 2004 roster, signing Jon Lieber to a two-year, $3.5M contract that includes a $250,000 buyout on an $8M option for 2005. Lieber was committed to signing a two-year deal preferably with an option for a third year, as he didn't want his rehab to be rushed by a one-year contract.

The 32-year-old will reportedly receive a $300,000 in 2003 and $2.45M in 2004, as well as a $500,000 signing bonus. An additional $750,000 in bonuses based on roster time are available in 2003, while he can earn up to $4.75M in start and inning incentives in 2004.

Most people view 2001 as Lieber's peak, as he won 20 games that season, but he displayed much better skills in both 1999 and 2000. His dominance began to drop off following the 1999 season, indicating potential arm problems and he pitched 251 innings in 2000 exacerbating the situation. I expect him to rebound to around 7 K/9 and maintain his sub-2 BB/9 in 2004. As he waiting until early August to undergo surgery, I don't expect him to be in the majors until at least September. At that point, I suspect he may remain on rehab assignment in AAA unless multiple members of the rotation are injured.

Roger Clemens re-signed with the Yankees just prior to the new year, agreeing to a one-year, $10.1M contract. However, due to the deferment of the money, the present day value of the deal is only $8.1M. He's scheduled to receive $600,000 in 2004, $700,000 in 2005, $900,000 in 2006, payments of $950,000 in each year from 2007 to 2012, as well as $1.1M payments in 2013 and 2014.

Clemens' trip to the disabled list last season was due to a groin pull rather than arm troubles, so despite the fact he celebrated his 40th birthday in August of 2002, we can expect another strong relatively healthy season from him in 2003. Despite their apparent surplus of starters, I think re-signing Clemens was a necessity for the Yankees. The Red Sox demonstrated what a mistake it is to count him out before he's declared he's done and over the past four seasons he's become a large part of the Yankees' identity. Consequently, with all of the other changes they've made he needed to stay, especially when we can expect him to produce another excellent season. They can certainly afford his salary, particularly parceled out in this fashion.

In addition to their major league acquisitions, the Yankees have also added a number of players to the club through minor league deals. C-R John Flaherty, OF-L Ryan McGuire, 1B-L Nate Rolison, 1B-S Fernando Seguignol, OF-L Nigel Wilson, RHP Adrian Hernandez, LHP Corey Lee, RHP Todd Noel, and RHP Christian Parker.

Chris Widger generally offers more offensive promise than Flaherty, but I expect the two to compete in Spring Training for the back-up position behind Jorge Posada. Widger probably has the edge, as he'd need to pass through waivers to be sent to the minors, but even at 35, Flaherty provides them with good depth.

Ryan McGuire displayed excellent plate discipline through 2000, but his strike zone judgment has sadly deteriorated over the past two years. The 31-year-old still has some power, but I don't expect the Yankees to call him up unless they have multiple injury problems.

I'd be a lot more impressed with the Rolison acquisition if he too hadn't discarded his plate discipline after the 2000 season. Prior to that point he was striking out well over a hundred times a season, but he was accumulating up to 70 walks. He underwent surgery to remove his hamate bone in the 2000-01 off-season and missed most of 2001. Most of his power has returned, but the 25-year-old needs to concentrate on resurrecting his strike zone judgment to be a real candidate for promotion if there are injuries at first or DH.

Seguignol spent 2002 in Japan, where he had even less success than he has as a AAAA first baseman in North America. As he's never shown promising plate discipline and has similar power skills to McGuire and Rolison, they should be ahead of him in line for any available major league at-bats.

Nigel Wilson has spent the last five seasons in Japan. Unfortunately, while he had a decent season in 2000, the 33-year-old has performed poorly the past two years and barely appears worthy of a AAA job. I don't expect him to make an impact in the majors in 2003.

While the Yankees seem to create fans of all their players, I don't believe Adrian Hernandez made the best career choice in deciding to remain in the organization when he had a chance to leave as a free agent. If he intends to continue to attempt to start, despite his obviously limited endurance, there certainly isn't room for him in the Yankee rotation. He seems to have much more promise as a reliever, but New York hasn't shown any inclination to move him into that role at AAA.

Texas drafted Corey Lee out of North Carolina State University with the 32nd overall pick of the first round of the 1996 draft and traded him to the White Sox for Herbert Perry after the 2001 season. Lee had a strong season at AAA Charlotte last season, compiling a 92:37 K:BB with 130 H and 12 HR allowed in 111 IP for a 3.89 ERA. I think he would have had a chance at earning an in-season call-up with another team, but there's no room for him in New York. If the 28-year-old doesn't find a starting job in another year or two, he should consider a move to relief, where he would likely dominate.

Noel did not play in 2001 or for much of 2002 due to injury. The Cubs drafted him out of high school with the 17th overall pick of the first round of the 1996 draft and traded him to Florida with Kevin Orie and Justin Speier for Felix Heredia and Steve Hoff in 1998. Florida then dealt him to New York with Ed Yarnall and Mark Johnson for Mike Lowell in 1999. Prior to his injury the 24-year-old displayed strong skills at A+ Tampa in Florida State League, so the Yankees were likely wise to keep him in the system, but I don't expect him to pitch above AA in 2003.

The Yankees brought Parker to the majors from AA in 2001 and a few weeks later he hit the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. He had shoulder surgery in July of 2001 and has not pitched since then. The 27-year-old obviously had promise before the injury, but he should start 2003 at AA and not rise above AAA before the season ends.

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I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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