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January
21st
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Reed Alert

by Jessica Polko

When Colorado discovered that Steve Reed was interested in returning to the Rockies, they were happy to re-sign the reliever, who's considered to have experienced the most extended success of any pitcher in the organization's history. The Giants originally signed Reed as a nondrafted free agent out of Lewis-Clark State College in 1988, but the Rockies selected him in the 1992 expansion draft, and he pitched for them for the first five seasons of the franchise. Reed agreed to a one-year, $900,000 contract that includes a $300,000 buyout on a $1.125M option for 2004. Reportedly, he'll also receive a $50,000 bonus if he's traded away from Colorado, where he makes his home.

The Rockies don't have a large compliment of relievers on their 40-man, so while they weren't desperate for a reliever, adding Reed nicely improves the depth of their pen. I'm not certain that pitching in Colorado is like riding a bike, but his skills remain strong. In fact, Reed finished seventh among all major league relievers in Adjusted Runs Prevented, which we consider to be the best singular gauge for ranking relievers' effectiveness. Colorado was quite lucky to have him fall into their lap again.

In December, Colorado non-tendered Scott Elarton and then re-signed him to a one-year, $500,000 contract with a $1.5M bonus for reaching 170 IP. Elarton missed all of 2002 following shoulder surgery but expects to compete for their rotation. However, given the financial consequences of allowing him to accumulate significant innings and the potential health risks, I'd relegate him to the bullpen for at least the first few months of the season.

More recently, the Rockies signed Jose Hernandez to a one-year, $800,000 contract. I don't love this acquisition, as studies have suggested that making contact is more important in Coors than any other stadium and Hernandez's strikeouts reduce his contact rate. However, they were able to sign him at a much lower price than his production would indicate he should receive. He will fill the vacancy at third base and strive to have a big year to increase his value on the free agent market next season. Hernandez is likely to accumulate some ostentatious power numbers if he remains with the Rockies for a full year, which could gain him some additional money, though clubs are more aware of the Coors effect in recent years. Additionally, given his ability to play shortstop, there are a number of teams who might pursue him in trade if they suffer injuries during the year. Colorado could also choose to use him at short, sending Juan Uribe back to the minors for the development time he was short changed in 2001.

Last week, the Rockies signed Chris Stynes to a one-year, $750,000 contract that includes a $200,000 buyout on a $1.25M option for 2004. If the Hernandez deal had fallen through, Stynes likely would have claimed the starting job at third base. While he turned 30 on Friday, he's still building on his skills. With the Cubs last season, Stynes significantly improved his plate discipline, though it didn't cause an immediate boost in his production.

Now that Hernandez has signed on, he'll likely work off the bench. Colorado likes to roster players with his positional flexibility to give them options when their games run long and in that way he fits well with the team. He also possesses some speed and power skills. However, I'm a bit concerned that although many of the Rocky players have upside, their strengths overlap in numerous places, creating holes and playing time conflicts. Stynes will reportedly have the opportunity to earn an additional $250,000 in incentives, but Colorado also has the option of releasing him in Spring Training and only paying $250,000 of his salary.

In mid-December, Greg Norton signed a one-year, non-guaranteed contract, reportedly worth between five and six hundred thousand dollars. Norton, who was arbitration-eligible, has some power but lacks the plate discipline he'd need to be a regular. I think he may get caught in the Rockies' roster crunch, but if not he gives them additional bench options.

At the same time, Colorado signed the arbitration-eligible Bobby Estalella to a non-guaranteed one-year, $500,000 contract. Estalella will compete for the back-up catcher position in Spring Training. The 28-year-old has some power when he makes contact but that isn't too frequently.

Colorado settled with two more arbitration-eligible players last week. Jay Payton agreed to a one-year, $1.85M contract. Payton has never seemed to fit on the Rockies to me, and this price seems high for a superfluous player. However they chose to play him at the end of last season over numerous other players vying for at-bats and he responded well.

Justin Speier signed a one-year, $850,000 contract, which seems in line with what he offers the organization. The 29-year-old had a good year in the pen last season while posting solid skills, and I expect similar production from in 2003.

Colorado has also signed a number of players to minor league deals, including 2B/3B-R Ron Belliard, C-S Raul Casanova, OF-R Brent Cookson, IF-S Luis M. Lopez, RHP Brad Clontz, and RHP Dan Miceli, and LHP Bryan Ward.

Belliard's plate discipline went into remission after the 2000 season and he's now been cured of almost all strike zone judgment. He still offers moderate power and speed skills, but I don't expect him to bounce back until he receives regular playing time, and I don't think that will happen while he's performing at his current level. At the moment I expect him to lose out to Brent Butler at second base in the spring, which will hopefully cause the Rockies to let him stew at AAA for a few months where he should find the at-bats he appears to need to relocate his patience at the plate. If he dominates at AAA and Butler falters, then the Rockies will likely flip them.

I expect Casanova to compete with Estalella for the back-up catcher position behind Charles Johnson. Neither appears to have much of an edge over the other in terms of defense or offense.

Cookson has played for several different AAA clubs, as well as in Korea and Mexico in the last decade. While he's almost always shown decent plate discipline, power potential and even a little speed, he's only accumulated 40 AB in the majors. Unfortunately, I doubt Colorado will give the 33-year-old a cup-of-coffee, as they already have an overabundance of major league outfielders. He needs to target teams with less depth if he wants more time in the big leagues.

The Rockies signed Lopez before acquiring most of the infielders discussed above. He has demonstrated few offensive skills that warrant additional major league time at this point. I suspect he'll spend the majority of the season at AAA.

Clontz has bounced between AAA and the majors for almost a decade due to inconsistent control. I don't expect him to break camp with the Rockies, but he could receive a call-up during the season when they need a fresh arm.

After refusing a minor league assignment with Texas, Miceli was granted his release in May of 2002 and did not pitch again last season. While he's pitched well in the past, he's had a number of off-field problems, so I don't know if he'll make an appearance in Colorado this year.

Ward was with AAA Colorado Springs for a portion of last season. Although the 30-year-old didn't show outstanding potential in his six starts, he could probably be used for spot work and definitely looks capable of filling in as a lefty in the pen if needed.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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