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January
19th
2003
Out of the Frying Pan
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Graves Robber

by Jessica Polko

Cincinnati signed Paul Wilson to two-year, $4M contract last week. Wilson, who the Devil Rays non-tendered will receive $500,000 in 2003 and $3.5M in 2004. The 29-year-old's strikeout rate fell last season and while his control isn't horrible it isn't great. I expect his numbers to pick up somewhat with an upgrade in the defense behind him, however he's primarily an innings eater.

The structure of this deal indicates the Reds intend to use him for a few months and then deal him at the deadline. Provided they're able to execute that strategy, I think this is a good signing. Wilson will join Danny Graves, Ryan Dempster, and Jimmy Haynes in the rotation with a number of pitchers competing for the fifth spot. Once they trade Wilson one of the pitchers who lost out in the spring will be able to step up and the Reds should be richer a prospect as long as Wilson doesn't have a horrible first half.

On Friday, Graves and the Reds agreed to a three-year, $17.5M contract, which includes a mutual option for 2006. He'll reportedly received $5M in 2003, $6M in 2004, and $6.5M in 2005. I can't say I support this contract in any way. Cincinnati plans to move Graves into the rotation this year. The four starts the 29-year-old made at the end of the 2002 season are the only starts of his professional career. Even as a reliever he's not been dominant or exercised extremely good control, so I don't expect him to excel as a starter and I'm not certain he'll even be adequate. I suspect the main reason the Reds are interested in exploring the conversion is that he possesses more than three different pitches, but that won't help if he can't throw them effectively. They should have dealt him when he started to grow expensive and had trade value as a closer.

Committing to a multi-year deal prior to making this switch makes little to no sense considering the additional injury risk from the increase in his workload. They likely haven't even saved significant money if he is able to succeed as a starter, as the deal has clauses that increase his salary if he continues to start. Cincinnati also included a limited no-trade clause with provisions for his salary to increase if he's traded, so if they want to deal him it will be that much more difficult to do so.

The Reds also settled on contracts with four other arbitration-eligible players this week. Ryan Dempster signed a one-year, $3.25M contract. Aside from an increase in his HR/9, Dempster pitched much better with the Reds after the break than he did with the Marlins in the first half of the season. Cincinnati should pay a bit more attention to his pitch counts this season, but the 25-year-old doesn't seem like a huge injury risk. I think they should have considered signing him to a two-year deal, as he'll likely look for a significant raise if he pitches well in 2003. However, they could also deal him mid-season if more than one of their rotation candidates is chomping at the bit.

Scott Williamson agreed to a one-year, $1.6M contract, and despite his recent injury trouble, I would have looked to sign him to a multi-year deal before even thinking of locking in Graves. Now after a season in which we expect him to rack up numerous saves as the Reds new closer, Williamson will be able to demand at least as much as Graves is making and Cincinnati won't want to pay it, though the 26-year-old already has much better skills than Graves. Hopefully, they'll at least leave Williamson in the bullpen and not try to make a starter out of him, as he doesn't appear to have the stamina to sustain that type of workload. He'll have the opportunity to earn an additional $400,000 in bonuses.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Reds signed Aaron Boone to a one-year, $3.7M contract. Boone increased his walk rate nicely, though he could still stand to take a few more bases on balls. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate remained the same, so his plate discipline still leaves something to be desired. However, the 29-year-old's power and speed skills are useful to the team, and he offers them some positional flexibility. At the moment, he's expected to spend most of the 2003 season at second base after playing third for most of 2002.

Jason LaRue signed a one-year, $1.25M contract. The 28-year-old's horrible plate discipline prevent him from being a real offensive force, but his bat has a bit of power in it and his defense is adequate. Cincinnati should consider trading him during the season, as he'll likely continue to grow a bit more expensive each year and Corky Miller appears ready to provide at least similar production.

In late December, the Reds signed Jose Rijo to minor league deal. He'll reportedly receive $500,000 if he makes the team and have the opportunity to earn an additional $250,000 in incentives. I don't know why Cincinnati persists in this nonsense. They have numerous other pitchers more deserving of a roster spot, so if he makes the team it will show an outrageous bias favoring veterans.

The Reds have signed a number of other players to minor league contracts, including LHP Jimmy Anderson, RHP Osvaldo Fernandez, LHP Felix Heredia, LHP Kent Mercker, LHP Travis Miller, RHP Scott Randall, and 1B-R Juan Thomas. Anderson pitched horribly last season and shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the Reds rotation. While he's only 26, it is time for him to think about salvaging his career with a move to relief and Cincinnati has very little major league left-handed depth for their pen, so he could find a job in that capacity if he has some success at AAA.

Fernandez has had some difficulty with his control, but he's generally displayed AAAA starting skills over the past few years. If the Reds ever find themselves in need of a spot starter, the 37-year-old wouldn't be a horrible choice, though I think they'll have other alternatives.

Heredia continues to have problems with his control, but if they don't move Anderson to relief, the 27-year-old should provide them with some left-handed depth. Merker, on the other hand, demonstrated fairly strong skills in Colorado last season. Consequently, the 34-year-old Ohio native seem like the logical first choice if they need to call-up a lefty reliever. Miller has displayed strong skills at AAA, giving them yet another potential southpaw for the pen. The Reds did a very good job of signing minor league players to give them left-handed depth with these acquisitions serving as a perfect example to other teams on how to find inexpensive but solid relief help.

Colorado drafted Randall out of Santa Barbara Community College in the 11th round of the 1995 draft. He signed with the Twins as a minor league free agent last season and compiled a 54:24 K:BB with 110 H and 6 HR allowed in 105.1 IP for a 3.25 ERA over 19 appearances, including 15 starts. If he moves to relief full-time, the 27-year-old might be able to increase his dominance sufficiently to earn a relief job in a major league pen, though I don't see any room on the Reds in 2003.

The White Sox drafted Juan Thomas out of high school in the 10th round of the 1991 draft. After becoming a minor league free agent for the first time, he spent a couple seasons in the independent leagues before signing with the Mariners. Last season at AAA Tacoma, he hit .263 with a .340 OBP and .469 SLG on 113 H, 33 2B, 2 3B, and 17 HR with a 43:102 BB:K and 3/4 SB% in 429 AB. The 30-year-old definitely has some power potential and his plate discipline shows promise, but I don't see him receiving a cup-of-coffee with the Reds until at least September.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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