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December
13th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Walker Before You Run

by Jessica Polko

Cincinnati traded 2B-L Todd Walker to Boston for two players to be named later on Thursday. Reportedly, 3B-R Tony Blanco and RHP Josh Thigpen are the two players to be named later, though that won't be official until after the Rule 5 draft, which should take place on Monday.

Walker's acquisition gives the Red Sox a starting second baseman and assures that prospect Freddy Sanchez will be left in AAA for the full season. While Walker doesn't possess great plate discipline, he's shown promise in that area. Additionally, his new ballpark should accentuate his moderate power skills, though I don't expect the-29-year-old to resurrect the base stealing abilities he displayed in the past. He doesn't belong in the top half of the lineup, but he should provide them with solid offense and defense for a season while Sanchez matures. Conveniently, Walker will be a free agent after the season, leaving the position open for the prospect.

Boston drafted Sanchez out of Oklahoma City University in the 11th round of the 2000 draft. He's advanced quickly through the Boston system, splitting last season between AA and AAA. Although the 24-year-old performed solidly at AAA, the Red Sox want to slow down his advancement and allow him to solidify his skills, particularly his plate discipline before plunging him into the majors. At AA, he hit .328 with a .403 OBP and .437 SLG on 102 H, 23 2B, 1 3B, and 3 HR with a 37:45 BB:K and 19/21 SB% in 311 AB, while at AAA those numbers dropped to a .301 BA, .350 OBP, and .432 SLG on 55 H, 10 2B, 1 3B, and 4 HR with a 12:21 BB:K and 5/8 SB% in 183 AB. However, after a full season at AAA in 2003, Sanchez should be able to take over as the Red Sox's major league second baseman.

Looking at the prospects the Reds acquired, Boston signed Tony Blanco as a nondrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1998. After a season in the Dominican Summer League, he split 2000 between short-season and rookie ball. In 2001 he advanced to A Augusta in the South Atlantic League, and this past season the Red Sox promoted him to A+ Sarasota in the Florida State League. Blanco has moderate power potential, but his plate discipline is non-existent, and after a season of hitting .221 with a .250 OBP and .365 SLG on 54 H, 13 2B, 2 3B, and 6 HR with a 6:70 BB:K and 2/2 SB% in 244 AB, the 21-year-old will need to repeat A+.

Boston drafted Thigpen out of high school in the 16th round of the 2000 draft. He finished out that season and spent all of 2001 in rookie ball, before advancing to A ball this season. At Augusta, he compiled an 87:45 K:BB with 76 H and 5 HR allowed in 82.2 IP for a 3.92 ERA. Of the twenty-five games over which those stats were accumulated, nine were starts. The 20-year-old has certainly displayed solid skills to this point, but I'm concerned with his waffling between starting and relief. For the moment, I expect the Reds to attempt to develop him as a starter, so he's still probably three years away and only seems to have marginal upside. If they choose to have him continue relieving, he could progress quickly and has a chance at making an impact in their pen in 2004.

The Reds primarily were looking for salary relief from Walker, who will make a base salary of $3.4M in 2003 and has a chance to earn more with incentives. However, they didn't pick up much in the exchange. Meanwhile, Theo Epstein's first trade as the Boston GM appears to be a success, as he's filled a need for his club without costing the organization in the future.

Cincinnati can choose from a few options to fill the vacancy left at second by Walker's departure. Aaron Boone could move to second and Brandon Larson could play third, but currently Larson seems much more likely to simply assume the second base starting job.

After spending the first half of 2002 in AAA, Cincinnati felt Larson was ready for the majors. Unfortunately, first a broken toe and then a broken left hand caused him to spend most of the second half of the season on the DL. He's shown considerable power upside, but while his walk rate is improving he still needs to work on his plate discipline. The primary obstacle to this plan is Larson's inexperience at second base, but I suspect he'll be given the first shot at the position. Russell Branyan likely will also spend some time at third once he's recovered from early December surgery to repair a torn labrum.

In addition to trading for Walker, Epstein has finalized a few contracts. As we discussed in November, the Red Sox grabbed Ryan Rupe off waivers from the Devil Rays. Last week, the arbitration-eligible pitcher agreed to a one-year, $750,000 contract with the team, making Tampa look even worse for releasing him.

I was more than a little surprised that Boston chose to re-sign free agent Frank Castillo to an $800,000 one-year contract. As it stands I expect him to serve as their 7th starter and work long relief out of the bullpen. However at this price, he's not a bad insurance policy.

The Red Sox also re-signed Willie Banks to a non-guaranteed $700,000 one-year contract. I had doubts about this deal before realizing it wasn't guaranteed, but now it appears that Boston has simply secured another potential bullpen arm and potential spot starter. The 33-year-old Banks usually displays solid skills, though he's far from outstanding. I expect him to start the season in AAA and only come up when the Red Sox need a replacement arm in the bullpen.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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