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July
24th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Mr. Rogers Not Cincy Neighbor

by Jessica Polko

Kenny Rogers exercised his no-trade clause with Texas on Tuesday and vetoed a deal that would have sent him to the Reds for IF-S David Espinosa, OF-R Alan Moye, and RHP Josh Hall. The two teams agreed to the trade Saturday night, but Rogers waited the full 72 hours before declining to move due to family commitments. While you'd expect those same commitments to prevent Rogers from heading anywhere else in the country this week, he will likely at least consider any offers that would send him to a more prominent contender than Cincinnati.

The Reds ostensibly want to contend for the division this season. However, they have no intention of adding even a penny to the payroll in order to achieve their goal, despite the marketing advantages of having a brand new pennant to hang when they open their new stadium next season. Consequently, they failed to acquire Chuck Finley and allowed him to go to their primary competition in the division, the St. Louis Cardinals. Their parsimonious ways are public knowledge and Rogers was likely aware that even though he'd give the Reds a decent shot at the pennant, they would be hard-pressed to overcome the Cardinals. If Cincinnati somehow takes the NL Central, it will be because St. Louis falters, not because the Reds significantly improve.

Rumors indicate the Rangers may still try to send Rogers to the Mariners. Seattle's in a close race, but the Mariners have a history of winning that might persuade Rogers that his family could use a vacation in the Northwest. He just wasn't willing to go out of his way for a borderline playoff team like the Reds.

While waiting for Rogers to make his decision, Reds' GM Jim Bowden orchestrated a trade for another starting pitcher. Cincinnati acquired RHP Brian Moehler, IF-R Matt Boone, and cash from Detroit for Espinosa and two players to be named later.

Moehler missed most of last season due to the torn rotator cuff and labrum that caused him to have surgery on his right shoulder in July of 2001. Nevertheless, Detroit signed him to a $2.4M contract for this season rather than go to arbitration. He was expected back prior to the All-Star break and actually returned July 2nd. Since his return, he's compiled a 13:2 K:BB in 19.2 IP with 17 H and 3 HR allowed.

He's always had a borderline home run problem, so I'm concerned that he's already given up three this season. However, his innings have been limited so far, so it could merely be the result of a readjustment period rather than a trend even though it extends back through his minor league rehab starts. While he has good command, his dominance was a bit weak before his injury. He also suffered from some troubling velocity problems following his surgery.

Moehler's primary asset to his team in the past has been his ability to go deep into games and that isn't something you can count on from a pitcher returning from major arm surgery. At 30, Moehler has passed the prime of his youth and there were definite flaws in his pitching when he was healthy. I think that this is a risky acquisition for the Reds and once again shows only a moderate commitment to contention. Bowden did mention that Cincinnati has interest in bringing the pending free agent back next season.

Matt Boone was likely included in this deal because the Reds wanted a player to take Espinosa's place in the minors. This season is Matt's third at A+ Lakeland in the Florida State League. The 23-year-old has struggled with his plate discipline, hindering any power or speed potential he might possess. If he makes it to the majors, it will primarily be due to the extra chances he's received based on his bloodline.

His selection seems to be a gesture of goodwill towards Reds' Manager Bob Boone, the father of Matt, Reds' starting third baseman Aaron, and Seattle second baseman Bret. The club announced yesterday that they had exercised the option in Bob's contract so that he will be back next season as their manager. While Boone certainly isn't the best manager in the league, he likely deserves another season both due to the Reds' surprising 2002 performance and to maintain organizational continuity as they open the Great American Ballpark next year.

Given Moehler's status as a pending free agent, there was no reason for Detroit to hold onto him. Unless the players to be named later are high risk and low upside, the Tigers made a good trade. Matt Boone and the cash involved are insignificant. They would have had to pay Moehler's entire salary had they not traded him. Additionally, while the status of draft pick compensation for free agents next season is still under negotiation, it wouldn't have really mattered for Moehler, as due to his recent injury problem, he likely wouldn't have received a designation high enough to justify keeping him now.

Many have speculated that draft pick compensation for free agents will not be included in whatever labor contract the two sides eventually agree upon. If that were true, it would affect a number of things, including how clubs view pending free agents when contemplating trades. However, it would also mean that the draft would no longer be subject to negotiation with the union. One of the few areas where we've heard any progress in the labor talks has been in terms of negotiating the draft with the union, and they've apparently spent considerable time on the discussion. I don't like to apply logic to the actions of the negotiators as they frequently defy reason, but it doesn't seem to make sense to discuss the draft, if you're then going to take actions that would make those discussions unnecessary.

Cincinnati drafted Espinosa out of Miami's Gulliver Prep School in the second round of the 2000 draft. He fell due to signability concerns, and the Reds ultimately gave him an 8-year major league contract work $2.75M. Unfortunately, the contract means that he'll need to be in the majors in 2004 or risk going through waivers before returning to the minor leagues.

Espinosa's plate discipline needs improvement, though he can take a walk. Developing strike zone judgment will also help him to maximize the considerable speed and power potential he possesses. He's struggled defensively, particularly with his throws. The Reds originally moved him from SS to 2B feeling that there was more room in the organization for a second baseman but returned him to SS before the end of last season. This year he's again attempting second. He has more power than the other middle infield prospects in the Tigers' system, but the pressure of the major league contract may prevent him from devoting necessary time to working on his plate discipline.

After spending last season at Dayton in the A Midwest League, Espinosa moved up to A+ Stockton in the California League this year. In 367 AB, he has 90 H, 13 2B, 7 3B, and 7 HR with a 62:104 BB:K and 26/43 SB% for a .245 BA, .375 OBP, and .376 SLG. I expect the Tigers to move him up to AA following the trade, but they should really be cautious about advancing him too quickly.

I'm a bit surprised that Detroit was interested in him considering they have Omar Infante and Ramon Santiago at the upper levels of their system. Unless they move a player, there will be a definite playing time crunch in a couple years in which no one will receive the at-bats they deserve. Then again, Espinosa is a known commodity and could always be turned into something else or allow them to trade one of the other two.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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